ZIP 50613 opens with a cross-market tension: Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,264 per month, only 0.9% above a year earlier, while the supplied ZIP resale series has firmer year-over-year pricing. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a lease ledger, a measure of every listed home, or a bedroom-specific observation. That muted asking-rent change should therefore be read as the current index’s direction, not as evidence that a particular landlord changed rent or that sales activity caused rental conditions. The five-digit label serves both as Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and as a matched Census ZCTA, although a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The cooling designation is grounded in the backward-looking Zillow history, not a projection. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 0.9% over one year, 3.2% over three years, and 3.6% over five years. Thus, recent direction breaks from the stronger longer path by slowing sharply rather than confirming it. The series contains 120 monthly observations, reports 100% expected coverage, and supplies 119 consecutive monthly returns through the stated endpoint. These are historical measurements of this index only; they do not forecast asking rents, predict tenant behavior, or provide an investment conclusion. The full record supports comparison across windows, but it cannot convert an index trend into unit-level rent evidence.
Variation in the monthly history tempers how much weight to place on the latest reading. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.9%, a limited historical fluctuation measure rather than a forecast band. Separately, the record’s maximum drawdown was -2.0%, showing the largest observed decline from a prior peak during covered history. On transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum ranked 1,522, stability ranked 1,344, and the balanced measure ranked 1,505; lower rank is higher. Those rank outputs and the cooling pattern are discovery tools, not recommendations. The relatively contained historical swings support some confidence in the index’s continuity, but not precision for a single current listing snapshot.
Cross-source rent figures answer different questions. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,202 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; the current asking index sits 5.2% higher. Because ACS is a survey, its estimates have sampling uncertainty. ACS also estimates ZCTA-wide median household income at $78,503. Applying a 30% share of income mechanically to annualized ZORI produces a $50,560 required-income screen. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Within the same ACS renter universe, 54.9% of 5,799 renter households were reported as spending at least that share of income on rent. These survey measures do not establish affordability of a particular available unit.
The bedroom view is intentionally modelled rather than measured. It scales the ZIP ZORI by each local HUD bedroom standard relative to the HUD two-bedroom anchor to estimate monthly studio, one-, two-, three-, and four-bedroom levels of $872, $963, $1,264, $1,632, and $2,120. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,051, the anchor used in that scaling. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and these modelled estimates are not observed bedroom rents or rental comparables. They are useful only for preserving local HUD size relationships around the blended asking-rent index; they do not establish what any dwelling of a given size is advertised for, leased for, or utility-inclusive.
The ZCTA housing base offers context, but its vacancy rate does not prove availability of a particular unit. ACS counts 18,075 housing units, a 5.3% vacancy rate, and a 33.9% renter share. Its stock count includes 12,264 single-family units and 1,727 units in large multifamily structures, a composition measure rather than a statement about rental condition or price. For wider context only, the Cedar Falls city rent context is $1,263.87, the Black Hawk County rent context is $1,011, and the Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA metro rent context is $996. Those city, county, and metro figures are not ZIP observations and should not be substituted for the ZIP asking-rent index; their contrast provides scale, not a direct comp set.
The direct Redfin ZIP resale observation at the supplied endpoint is a rolling three-month for-sale measure, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $307,431, up 6.1% year over year, with 165 homes sold and a median 9 days on market. It recorded 92 homes of inventory and 1.7 months of supply. Sale-to-list evidence was also firm: the average sale-to-list ratio was 100.09%, 41.9% of sales closed above list, and 58.8% went off market within two weeks. These resale liquidity signals confirm that the for-sale snapshot is active and price-positive, yet they challenge any attempt to read cooling rent growth as a parallel for-sale trend. They neither measure rental demand nor establish terms for a rental property.
Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the Redfin median sold price gives a 4.9% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, and it cannot reconcile an asking-rent index with resale transactions. The central tension remains: slow recent ZORI growth and the substantial ACS burden measure sit beside a firm, tight-supply resale snapshot, without evidence that one caused the other. Interpretation is limited by mixed geography, time frames, rental-type blending, the ACS survey design, administrative HUD standards, and absence of unit facts. Concrete property-level checks would need the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, utility responsibility, concessions, lease dates, condition, sale date, list price, and transaction record. Which of those unit-specific facts aligns with the index rather than merely resembling it?
","findings":[{"body":"The latest annual asking-rent change is materially slower than the ZIP’s three- and five-year same-month annualized history. Full historical coverage and modest measured variability make the index series internally continuous, but the deceleration means a current ZORI reading should not be treated as continuation of the earlier growth pace. This remains backward-looking evidence, not a forecast.","title":"Recent asking-rent growth has cooled"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards are purpose-built for different uses. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index; ACS describes occupied renter households with selected utilities; HUD provides administrative bedroom standards. The bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZORI with HUD size relationships, so they can organize a size comparison without becoming observed rents.","title":"Rent sources are not interchangeable"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show positive pricing and fast marketing, while the current asking-rent index has cooled. These observations can coexist because they represent distinct for-sale and rental evidence universes. The resale record challenges a simple unified-market narrative, but cannot turn annualized asking rent divided by sold price into property economics.","title":"Resale evidence is firmer than rent momentum"},{"body":"ACS stock, vacancy, renter share, and burden provide population-level context, not a unit availability map. The city, county, and metro comparisons are broader-context figures rather than ZIP substitutes. Any affordability reading remains limited by survey design, category differences, and the absence of property-specific rent, utilities, condition, and transaction details.","title":"Household context does not identify available units"}],"risks":["ZORI is blended across rental types and summarizes typical observed asking rent, so an individual unit’s bedroom count, concessions, utility obligations, timing, and condition can diverge materially from the ZIP index.","The matched Census ZCTA is statistical geography, and ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty; its household and vacancy measures cannot establish the status, rent, or burden of a specific delivery ZIP unit.","HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder values are administrative standards, so the bedroom-scaled figures preserve a modelling relationship but may differ from actual advertised rents, signed lease amounts, included utilities, and property configurations.","Redfin’s rolling three-month evidence covers for-sale resales, not rental transactions. Positive sale pricing or tight supply cannot explain, validate, or offset the asking-rent trend, household burden measure, or a given property’s economics."],"qa":[{"a":"It represents Zillow’s typical observed ZIP asking-rent index for the reported month, blended across rental types. It does not identify a signed lease, a particular bedroom count, or the utilities and concessions of a particular listing. The ZIP label is Zillow’s market identifier; the matched Census ZCTA is a statistical approximation, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey estimate of median gross rent among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index. Different timing, population, and rent concepts can produce a gap without showing an error, an individual landlord’s decision, or availability of a specific unit.","q":"Why is the ACS gross-rent level different from Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than a market asking-rent survey. The results should therefore not be used as measured bedroom rents, lease comparables, or proof of a unit’s advertised price.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual observed rents?"},{"a":"The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin median sold price is a cross-source screening ratio only. It omits property expenses, financing, taxes, condition, unit mix, and deal timing, and Redfin describes for-sale resale transactions rather than rentals. It cannot be called a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, nor does it establish any transaction-level outcome.","q":"What does the rent-to-sale-price screening ratio mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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