In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is $1,234 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quote for any single available home. Its same-month path is positive but decelerating: the one-year annualized change is 2.6%, versus 4.4% over three years and 4.9% over five years. Thus, the recent direction confirms the longer upward path, while its slower pace breaks from the stronger multi-year rate. The history has 100% coverage, annualized monthly-return variability of 3.2%, and a maximum drawdown of -6.0%. These backward-looking measurements provide a broad benchmark, but the variability and drawdown mean one current snapshot should not be treated as a precise lease-level price or a forecast.
The ZORI and ACS series answer different questions. For the matched 52240 Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,047 among occupied renter homes, including selected utilities; this is 17.9% below the current asking-rent index. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, even though this five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match. The difference is neither an error nor a direct measure of a new tenant’s experience: it can reflect surveyed occupied homes versus a blended asking-rent index, timing, rental composition, and utility treatment. ACS remains a survey estimate with its own sampling uncertainty.
Bedroom comparisons are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent: it runs $804, $847, $1,052, $1,389, and $1,594 from studio through four bedrooms. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $944, $994, $1,234, $1,630, and $1,871 in the same order. The alignment at the two-bedroom position is the construction anchor, not evidence that actual two-bedroom listings cluster at the index. The model does not specify unit condition, lease terms, included utilities, availability date, or non-rent charges.
The affordability tension is visible when index arithmetic is paired with household survey data, without converting either into a qualification test. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the current monthly asking-rent benchmark implies $49,360 of annual income. The ACS median household income is $52,960, so the screen sits below that broad household midpoint, but it does not identify who can rent a particular unit, and it is neither advice nor an applicant eligibility rule. In the ACS renter sample, 4,734 of 7,687 renter households—61.6%—reported gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. This surveyed burden includes occupied homes and selected utilities, while ZORI tracks asking rents; it cannot establish the burden, affordability, or utility bill for any specific listing or household.
Stock data give scale to that tension without demonstrating availability. The matched ZCTA has a 10.1% overall housing-unit vacancy rate, and 780 vacant units are classified for rent; neither statistic proves that a particular apartment is vacant, suitable, or offered at the index. The housing stock includes 8,191 single-family units and 3,336 units in large multifamily structures, showing that the stock spans more than one structural form. These ACS counts are categories in a five-year survey, not a live listing feed. They should be read alongside the renter-burden result and asking-versus-gross-rent gap, not as evidence of concessions, landlord behavior, or the terms a renter will encounter.
Broader geographies place the ZIP index below surrounding context, but they do not replace ZIP evidence. In Iowa City citywide context, rent is $1,308; in Johnson County context, rent is $1,383; and in the Iowa City, IA metro context, rent is $1,377, with each figure referring to its named wider scope rather than this ZIP itself. This ordering provides a location-scale comparison, yet it does not reveal conditions within any property. The city, county, and metro values can have different boundaries, rental mixes, and source constructions from the ZIP ZORI and matched ZCTA survey. Treat them as reference benchmarks only when assessing whether a listing price is comparable to the intended unit.
The full history is backward-looking and mixed in signal strength, not an investment recommendation. Its transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 818 for momentum, 1,941 for stability, and 1,228 for balanced performance, where a lower rank is higher; these ranks organize past observations rather than predict rents. Before relying on the current index or bedroom model, verify the property’s actual asking rent, bedroom count, square footage, lease length, move-in date, utility inclusions, recurring and one-time fees, and whether it is presently available. Also compare the property’s location to the intended service or delivery address, because the statistical ZCTA match and USPS ZIP boundaries are not identical. The decision-relevant question is: do the property’s written terms and current availability match the benchmark being used?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI reached $1,234 in June 2026. Same-month growth remained positive over every supplied horizon, but the one-year pace is below the three- and five-year annualized rates. The evidence therefore supports a slower recent ascent rather than a reversal. Complete history coverage improves continuity, while recorded variability and drawdown make the current index a benchmark, not a guaranteed listing result.","title":"Recent deceleration within a still-positive history"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA median gross rent is lower than ZORI, but the gap compares occupied renter homes, selected utilities, and multiyear survey timing with a blended current asking-rent index. The shared label does not eliminate geographic differences: a Census ZCTA is statistical and not the same as USPS delivery geography. This is a scope distinction, not proof that either source is wrong.","title":"Survey rent and asking-rent index are not interchangeable"},{"body":"HUD’s bedroom ladder creates a transparent way to size the ZIP index from studio through four bedrooms. The resulting values are modelled estimates generated from administrative standards; they are not observed bedroom-level asking rents. Their greatest use is internally consistent comparison across bedroom counts. A property search still requires verification of actual unit configuration, utilities, fees, term, and availability.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a transparent scaling model"},{"body":"The ACS renter burden share indicates many occupied renter households cross the gross-rent threshold, even while the index-based income screen sits near the broad median household income figure. Those statements cannot be merged into a conclusion about a prospective renter or listing. Vacancy categories and structure counts describe survey stock, not an inventory of units ready to lease.","title":"Rent burden is broad context, not unit-level evidence"}],"risks":["The Zillow figure is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, so it may not match a specific advertised unit’s rent, bedroom count, utility treatment, lease term, fees, condition, or availability date.","ACS values come from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a statistical ZCTA, carry survey uncertainty, and cannot be read as live market inventory or an individual household outcome.","HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative bedroom standards; scaling them to ZORI creates comparative modelled estimates and cannot establish observed studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit asking rents.","Overall and for-rent vacancy categories describe surveyed housing stock, not a verified pool of immediately rentable units, concessions, landlord practices, or terms available at a particular property."],"qa":[{"a":"The June 2026 Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful as a broad current benchmark. It is not a listing feed, a signed-lease average, or a promise that an available property at that amount has any particular bedroom count, utility package, condition, or term.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure measure?"},{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes in matched ZCTA 52240 and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks a current blended asking-rent index. The ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. Timing, population, measure, and geography differ, so the two values should not be substituted.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom values are modelled monthly estimates. They preserve the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder after anchoring it to the ZIP ZORI, which is an explicit scaling method. HUD is an administrative standard and ZORI is not bedroom-specific, so neither source directly measures rents for a particular bedroom category.","q":"Are the bedroom figures actual observed rents?"},{"a":"The required-income result is arithmetic: it applies a 30% share to the index rent. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, or a landlord or program qualification rule. The ACS burden statistic concerns surveyed occupied renter households and cannot determine the burden of a prospective tenant or the affordability of one listed unit.","q":"How should the 30% income and burden results be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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