At the June 2026 endpoint, this ZIP’s Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is $1,264 per month. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for one dwelling. Its exact same-month annualized gain was 8.9% over the latest one-year interval, compared with 5.6% over three years and 6.2% over five. The current direction therefore confirms the longer upward path but represents acceleration, not a break from it. This pace distinction is the key historical tension: a reader should not assume that the latest rate describes every listing or lease. These are backward-looking Zillow measurements through the stated endpoint, not a forecast or an investment recommendation.
For broader rent context, the Marion city-scope rent is $1,277.66, the Linn County county-scope rent is $1,281, and the Cedar Rapids, IA metro-scope rent is $1,274. Each is slightly above this ZIP’s current index. These city, county, and metro figures are wider context only: they do not replace the ZIP series and cannot establish the rent of a particular property. The near alignment creates a useful geographic reference point, yet the underlying scope is broader in each case. Interpret any small gap as an index comparison at the supplied level of geography, not evidence about unit quality, availability, location within a city, or likely lease terms.
The apparent gap between sources is material but not contradictory. The five-digit label 52302 is Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and matches the Census ZCTA used for ACS. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $962, with a $116 90% margin of error; it represents occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI’s current asking index is 31.4% above that ACS measure, but the ratio does not measure inflation or an error: ACS surveys existing occupied homes, while Zillow records an asking-rent index. The supplied FY 2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR is a separate administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent.
To make the size relationship explicit, the supplied local FY 2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder lists monthly standards of $659 for a studio, $729 for one bedroom, $956 for two bedrooms, $1,212 for three bedrooms, and $1,348 for four bedrooms. Scaling the ZIP’s current ZORI by that ladder relative to the two-bedroom standard produces modelled estimates of $871, $964, $1,264, $1,602, and $1,782, respectively. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. They transfer HUD’s local size ratios onto a blended ZIP asking index; they do not show listings, transactions, or achieved rents by bedroom count. The HUD values remain administrative benchmarks even where they are the scaling input.
At a 30% rent-to-income screen, annualizing the current index produces a required income of $50,560. That calculation uses the asking index mechanically; it is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ACS ZCTA median household income is $87,983, so annualized ZORI equals 17.2% of that all-household median. That comparison is descriptive rather than a renter-income estimate. Separately, 49.9% of renter households—1,949 of 3,906—were burdened by gross rent at or above the screen threshold in ACS. The burden statistic does not show a particular household’s finances, and neither it nor the income median proves that an individual unit is affordable.
Area stock data adds a different lens. In the ACS ZCTA housing record, the vacancy rate is 6.3%, including 438 housing units classified as vacant for rent, while renter-occupied homes make up 22.6% of occupied housing. The stock is predominantly single-family at 75.3%, with large multifamily units at 5.0%. These are counts and classifications aggregated over the survey area, not a real-time inventory of comparable units. They do not identify how many vacant-for-rent homes match the ZORI rental mix, whether a unit is ready to lease, or whether its asking amount, utilities, physical condition, or term aligns with the index.
Confidence in one current rent snapshot should reflect the historical record’s quality, not just the latest increase. History coverage is 96.9%, annualized monthly-return variability is 3.2%, and the largest recorded peak-to-trough drawdown is 2.4%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 81 for momentum, 1,880 for stability, and 403 for the balanced measure; a lower rank is higher. The relatively muted absolute variation supports some confidence in the current index, but the less favorable stability rank and recent acceleration argue for moderate rather than high confidence. This evidence still describes history, not a forecast. Before comparing a property, verify its live asking price, observation date, bedroom count, utilities included, lease term, concessions, fees, vacancy status, and condition. Which property-level check most changes the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"The latest exact same-month Zillow change exceeds both the three- and five-year annualized changes. That pattern makes acceleration, rather than a reversal, the central historical tension. It is useful only as a record through the endpoint: ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, so it neither predicts future rents nor states the rent for a particular vacant home.","title":"Acceleration is the central historical signal"},{"body":"Zillow, ACS, and HUD answer distinct questions. ZORI reflects observed asking rents across rental types; ACS reports a survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard. The difference among their dollar values should be interpreted as differences in population, timing, and definition before being treated as any market signal.","title":"Three rent concepts answer different questions"},{"body":"Bedroom outputs are constructed by applying the local HUD bedroom ratio to the ZIP ZORI. They are modelled estimates, not measured rents by unit size, and cannot verify an advertised price. Their purpose is to place a blended asking-rent index on a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom scale while preserving the supplied local standard’s size relationships.","title":"Bedroom outputs are scaled estimates"},{"body":"Income and burden indicators are aggregate screens, not household determinations. The required-income calculation applies an arithmetic share to the ZIP asking index, while the ACS income median covers all households and burden reflects renter households. Vacancy categories and wider city, county, and metro comparisons add context, but none confirms that a specific unit is available, affordable, or comparable.","title":"Aggregate affordability does not identify a unit"}],"risks":["The Zillow figure is a typical blended asking-rent index, not a live quote. A particular home can differ because advertised rent, bedroom count, utilities, timing, condition, term, fees, or concessions differ.","ACS uses a matched ZCTA and a five-year survey of occupied renter homes; a ZCTA is statistical rather than USPS delivery geography. Sampling uncertainty and selected utilities limit direct comparison with current asking data.","HUD FMR/SAFMR standards are bedroom-specific administrative benchmarks. The bedroom ladder scales ZORI using their ratios, so these outputs are modelled estimates and cannot demonstrate observed studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit rents.","Vacancy and rent-burden figures are area aggregates. They cannot establish the availability, price, lease eligibility, financial outcome, or tenant affordability of any identified unit at the time a reader searches."],"qa":[{"a":"The sources observe different universes. Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is a current typical asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities in matched ZCTA geography. Its median therefore reflects existing occupied tenancies, not only newly advertised properties, and the two levels should not be read as competing quotes.","q":"Why is the current Zillow index above ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates formed by multiplying the ZIP ZORI by local HUD ladder relationships. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not observed asking rent. A reader should verify the listed bedroom count and live asking price rather than infer a property’s market rent from the modelled ladder.","q":"Are the bedroom figures reported as actual median rents?"},{"a":"It annualizes the ZIP asking index and divides it by 30%, yielding a simple required-income screen. It is arithmetic only, not financial advice, an affordability conclusion, or an applicant qualification rule. ACS median household income is an area statistic and does not reveal the income, expenses, or qualification status of a particular renter.","q":"How should the 30% income figure be used?"},{"a":"No. The history describes exact same-month changes through the stated endpoint, together with observed variation, drawdown, coverage, and discovery ranks. The latest acceleration confirms prior historical growth rather than breaking from it, but neither that pattern nor the ranks forecasts rent, availability, investment performance, or property-level lease terms.","q":"Does the historical rise predict future ZIP rents?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":943.944877},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":948.70927},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":944.364331},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":934.431381},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":930.269408},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":938.166366},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":959.700242},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":973.610768},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":965.297724},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":954.474411},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":963.790899},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":958.507725},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":970.007156},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":965.789815},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":987.884513},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":994.420706},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1015.146735},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":991.145641},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":998.541121},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1027.940717},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1039.756154},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1059.090151},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1059.602109},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1078.849268},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1073.621639},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1072.786213},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1055.724291},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1057.518062},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1060.235918},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1076.938226},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1086.50852},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1095.44579},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1087.803102},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1096.55936},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1100.194816},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1109.128202},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1101.713725},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1107.402217},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1112.151107},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1113.23401},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1129.292986},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1127.034159},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1137.163565},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1126.836027},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1138.152735},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1131.625655},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1138.971381},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1140.847669},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1149.737693},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1161.348819},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1175.11454},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1186.415162},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1188.704093},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1197.303434},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1197.19917},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1209.147031},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1216.418685},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1229.049787},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1237.507756},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1244.419476},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1258.943624},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1264.245421}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":62,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":0.96875,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1161.348819,"endRent":1264.245421,"change":0.08860094427839593,"cagr":0.08860094427839593},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1072.786213,"endRent":1264.245421,"change":0.1784691168472352,"cagr":0.05626462511744523},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":934.431381,"endRent":1264.245421,"change":0.3529569390606757,"cagr":0.062323514992268514}},"maxDrawdown":-0.023642980046623574,"annualizedVolatility":0.03172645330882813,"consecutiveReturnCount":60}}