The central tension in 52807 is a rapidly rising ZIP asking-rent index alongside a much higher direct ZIP resale price base. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI for the ZIP was $780 per month, up 4.79% from the same month a year earlier. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease record, a utility-inclusive rent measure, or the price of a specified unit. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation put the median sold price at $418,905, up 4.75% year over year. Annualized ZORI divided by that median price equals 2.23%, solely a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, and it does not translate unlike rent and sale data into a unit-level result.
That one-year change is an exact same-month, backward-looking ZORI measurement, not a forecast. It is above the 1.97% annualized change over three years and the 2.99% annualized change over five years, so recent direction confirms acceleration relative to both longer paths rather than breaks from them. The historical series registered 3.12% annualized monthly-return variability and an 8.15% maximum drawdown. Coverage was 96.8% across the reported monthly history. That is a largely covered record, but the variability and drawdown mean a current index point warrants less confidence than a stable, unit-specific quoted rent. In transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, where a lower rank is higher, momentum was 907, stability was 1,812, and balanced was 1,220. These ranks summarize past observations only and are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations.
The five-digit label 52807 is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey reported $993 median gross rent, with a $53 margin of error. It covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it is not a current asking-rent series. The gap between the survey median and the index is definition-sensitive rather than proof of a discount. HUD's FY2026 local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,143; it is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The bedroom estimates scale ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder and are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: $558 for a studio, $633 for one bedroom, $780 for two, $1,022 for three, and $1,241 for four.
The affordability view adds a separate household lens. Multiplying the monthly asking-rent index by twelve and applying a 30% rent-to-income screen produces $31,200 in annual income. This is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; household resources, utility treatment, and the index's blended rental types can differ. Against the ZCTA's $72,579 median household income, the annualized asking-rent screen is 12.9%, but that comparison does not pair rent with the same household. The ACS burden measure is more direct but still aggregate: 45.1% of occupied renter households reported gross rent at or above the threshold. It establishes area-level burden in the survey universe, not the circumstances or payment risk of any particular unit.
Stock and vacancy data are also ZCTA survey measures rather than an inventory feed. The ACS reports 8,045 housing units and a 6.24% vacancy rate; that rate summarizes the area at survey scale and does not identify a vacant apartment, its condition, or its asking rent. Renters occupy 52.9% of occupied homes, compared with owners' remainder, making renter households the larger occupied tenure group in this ZCTA. The structure counts include 3,809 single-family units and 1,541 units in large multifamily structures. Those counts describe the housing mix, not the bedroom mix, turnover, lease availability, or suitability of a specific rental. A unit advertised as available needs its own verification regardless of the aggregate vacancy rate.
Wider comparisons signal that this ZIP's asking-rent index is not the only perspective to test. At Davenport city scope, the context rent is $949; at Scott County scope, the context rent is $1,055; and at Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL metro scope, the context rent is $1,019. Each is wider-context data, not a substitute ZIP observation or an indication that any ZIP unit should command one of those figures. The ZIP index sits below all three context values, but scope and definition matter before treating a city, county, or metro comparison as confirmation of the ZIP measure. These broader figures frame comparison only; they do not replace the direct ZIP asking-rent series, the ZCTA household survey, or the HUD administrative standard.
The direct ZIP resale window contributes liquidity and marketing evidence without becoming rental evidence. In Redfin's rolling-three-month observation, 57 homes sold with a median 15 days on market, inventory of 25 homes, and 1.3 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 100.2%, while 36.4% of homes sold above list. These are for-sale transaction and marketing signals, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or broader-geography measures. Together with the reported resale price increase, they confirm a recent active resale reading while the history block records faster asking-rent index growth. Yet the contrast between the sale-price base and the rent index challenges any claim that either series alone describes a specific home's resale terms or tests the ACS burden result.
Limits are material. None of the source series identifies a property's condition, bedroom configuration, actual lease terms, included utilities, turnover, or tenant characteristics. The ZCTA burden and vacancy results cannot prove payment stress or availability at a particular unit, and the Redfin observation cannot substitute for rent comparables. Before relying on the screens, verify the property's location within the relevant market identifier, advertised rent, bedroom count, which utilities are included, lease term, availability, and, if it is for sale, the listing and sale status used in the resale comparison. These checks keep a ZIP index, a statistical-area survey, an administrative standard, and a resale observation in their proper lanes. Which verified unit facts would most change the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's June 2026 reading was $780, and the exact same-month one-year increase was 4.79%. That pace exceeded the annualized changes over three and five years, fitting the supplied accelerating category. However, the record also shows 3.12% annualized monthly-return variability and an 8.15% maximum drawdown. It supports a historical direction statement, not a prediction or an investment conclusion.","title":"Acceleration is documented, not projected"},{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index, ACS median gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR answer different questions. Zillow reflects typical observed asking rents across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities included. HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The HUD-scaled studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates, not measured bedroom rents or evidence that a listed unit is available at that amount.","title":"Three rent universes answer different questions"},{"body":"The $31,200 result is the annual income produced by applying the arithmetic 30% screen to annualized ZIP ZORI, not a tenant qualification standard. The ZCTA's 45.1% gross-rent burden rate is based on survey households and provides an aggregate affordability signal. It cannot establish the budget, utility obligations, payment performance, or likely availability of any individual rental unit.","title":"Affordability screen sits below survey burden"},{"body":"Redfin reports the ZIP's rolling-three-month for-sale market, where the median sold price was $418,905 and the annualized ZORI-to-price screen was 2.23%. The screen simply divides an asking-rent index by a sale-price median across sources. Marketing time, supply, sale-to-list behavior, and sales volume describe resale activity only; they are neither rental comps nor a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","title":"Resale signals are active but not rental comps"}],"risks":["Zillow's blended asking-rent index can move differently from advertised rents for a particular bedroom count, property type, utility package, or lease term, so applying it directly to a listing can misstate the relevant asking comparison.","The ACS ZCTA is a five-year statistical survey and not a USPS delivery ZIP. Its gross-rent, vacancy, burden, and stock measures are aggregate estimates that cannot identify conditions at a particular address.","The HUD ladder is administrative and bedroom specific. Its ZIP-scaled estimates are modelled from ZORI, so they should not be read as observed rents, completed leases, or evidence of what a landlord will accept.","Redfin's resale figures use a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation. Short marketing time or sale-to-list strength does not establish rental demand, vacancy, operating costs, financing outcomes, or tenant affordability."],"qa":[{"a":"It measures a different universe. ZORI is a June 2026 ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is the matched ZCTA's 2024 five-year survey median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference cannot establish a discount, rent concession, or a price for any current unit.","q":"Why doesn't the $993 ACS rent supersede the $780 ZORI?"},{"a":"They are modelled estimates produced by scaling the ZIP's ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD's two-bedroom standard is $1,143, while the model places two bedrooms at $780 and scales the remaining bedroom sizes accordingly. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, so the outputs are not measured rents or listing comparables.","q":"How were the bedroom figures constructed?"},{"a":"No. The figure is simply the monthly index annualized and divided by 30%, an arithmetic comparison rather than advice or a qualification rule. It does not match a specific household's income to a specific unit's rent, utility treatment, or lease terms. The ACS burden rate is aggregate and cannot prove payment stress at a given address.","q":"Does the $31,200 screen say an applicant qualifies?"},{"a":"Very little at the individual-property level. It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin's direct ZIP median sold price, combining separate asking-rent and resale universes. It can frame a cross-source comparison, but it excludes property-level facts and must not be relabeled as a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"What does the 2.23% screen reveal about a property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":658.287571},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":663.480352},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":673.334788},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":678.119309},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":682.12791},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":686.042705},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":700.933189},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":705.714531},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":709.938332},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":715.565801},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":717.065327},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":721.338856},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":725.744741},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":732.640633},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":736.949345},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":738.092465},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":743.485305},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":743.473119},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":738.338137},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":731.578319},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":734.236683},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":737.852107},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":741.075534},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":740.726623},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":735.969071},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":740.388075},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":749.863085},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":748.222543},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":746.53136},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":745.914279},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":755.268831},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":762.615062},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":760.109015},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":763.493285},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":760.996366},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":776.77637},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":789.855788},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":798.962764},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":795.180586},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":790.269318},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":795.974991},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":793.273494},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":781.037891},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":758.605256},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":759.560045},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":762.335389},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":768.806501},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":755.067143},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":744.605972},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":735.337995},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":733.826971},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":737.727397},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":735.560985},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":739.999723},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":746.98431},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":762.056217},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":764.575417},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":763.482185},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":763.165319},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":771.134214},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":780.25}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":61,"firstPeriod":"2021-04-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":63,"coverageRatio":0.9682539682539683,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":744.605972,"endRent":780.25,"change":0.047869650983674905,"cagr":0.047869650983674905},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":735.969071,"endRent":780.25,"change":0.06016683410327728,"cagr":0.01966631212892178},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":673.334788,"endRent":780.25,"change":0.15878462527915604,"cagr":0.02991301148490666}},"maxDrawdown":-0.08152544265504724,"annualizedVolatility":0.03123174404994484,"consecutiveReturnCount":58}}