At ZIP 53711, the current rent signal is a slowdown, not a decline. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,735, and its exact same-month change was 1.8% over one year, versus 3.1% annualized over three years and 6.3% annualized over five years. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a quotation for a specified available home. The descending sequence of backward-looking rates means recent direction breaks from the faster longer path while still registering an increase. It does not indicate what rents will do next, nor does it identify which property types drove the index. That distinction matters when comparing the index with a particular advertised payment or lease.
The history has 100% monthly coverage through its stated endpoint. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.0%, and maximum drawdown was -1.6%; together, those backward-looking measures describe movement around the observed path, not future risk. National discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,294 for momentum, 1,621 for stability, and 1,472 for the balanced measure; lower rank numbers place higher in this transparent ordering. The complete record reduces uncertainty from missing months, but its measured variation and recent deceleration mean a reader should treat the current ZORI as an index snapshot, not a precise property-level rent. These metrics do not explain why changes occurred or support a forecast or investment recommendation.
The $1,735 asking-rent index should not be merged with the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent of $1,406. Here, 53711 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks observed asking rents with a different rental mix. The asking index is 23.4% above the ACS median, a difference that signals unlike universes and timing rather than a contradiction or a quality difference between sources. Neither value establishes the rent of a particular unit.
Bedroom figures sharpen the comparison only as a model. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates, not measured bedroom rents: $1,254 for a studio, $1,322 for one bedroom, $1,735 for two bedrooms, $2,335 for three bedrooms, and $2,759 for four bedrooms. HUD’s local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,182, so the modelled two-bedroom figure is 46.8% higher. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; it supplies the ladder shape but does not show what a listed, leased, or occupied apartment commands.
The affordability picture contains a second source mismatch. The 30% required-income screen translates the asking-rent index into $69,400 in annual income; it is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Matched-ZCTA ACS median household income is $100,735, and the asking-rent-to-income ratio is 20.7%. Separately, ACS reports 3,495 burdened renter households among 8,794 renter-occupied homes, or 39.7% with gross rent at least 30% of household income. That burden statistic concerns surveyed households and gross rent with selected utilities; it cannot prove affordability, occupancy, or cost burden for a particular applicant or unit.
Stock data add scale but not a listing-level availability signal. The matched ZCTA has a 3.4% vacancy rate, with 14,884 single-family units and 4,689 large multifamily units in its housing stock. Those classifications describe survey inventory; they do not establish that a vacancy is rentable now or that a particular building has an opening. For wider context only, Madison city context rent is $1,656, Dane County context rent is $1,682, and Madison, WI metro context rent is $1,676. Each named city, county, and metro figure is a wider-scope comparison, not a replacement for the ZIP asking-rent index or for ZCTA household measures.
The limits are practical: ZORI does not specify a unit, ACS does not portray newly marketed homes, HUD does not set market asking rent, and the wider geography metrics are context only. A property-level comparison should check the listing’s monthly asking amount, bedroom designation, whether utilities are included, lease term, fees or concessions, stated availability, and whether its location belongs to the relevant market identifier. It should also distinguish an advertised rent from an occupied-home gross-rent measure and from the modelled HUD-scaled tier. The useful closing question is whether the specific listing’s documented terms align with the appropriate source comparison, rather than whether any single ZIP statistic can answer that question alone.
","findings":[{"body":"At $1,735 in June 2026, the ZIP ZORI remained above its prior same-month level, but annualized growth slowed from 6.3% across five years to 3.1% across three years and 1.8% across one year. This confirms continued historical growth while breaking from the earlier faster pace. The evidence is backward-looking Zillow index history, not a rent forecast, asset valuation, or quote for a specified property.","title":"Growth has decelerated"},{"body":"Zillow’s typical asking-rent index and ACS median gross rent answer different questions. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while Zillow blends observed asking rents across rental types. The matched ZCTA relationship supports geographic comparison but not identity with a USPS delivery ZIP. The observed gap should therefore not be read as a unit-level premium.","title":"The source gap is structural"},{"body":"The studio through four-bedroom figures are created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard by bedroom, not an asking-rent sample. The ladder shows relative bedroom scaling, but cannot document a specific property’s asking, lease, or occupied rent.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled"},{"body":"ACS shows a meaningful burdened-renter count and a surveyed vacancy rate, but neither field identifies an available apartment or a household seeking the current ZORI. Madison city, Dane County, and Madison, WI metro figures remain wider context only. A valid listing comparison needs its documented rent, utilities treatment, bedroom designation, terms, and market-location match.","title":"Household evidence is not listing evidence"}],"risks":["The current Zillow figure is an index across a rental mix, so applying it as an exact market price to a particular bedroom count, building, or lease can misstate the comparison.","The HUD-scaled bedroom ladder reflects an administrative standard and a modelling method. It does not measure current asking rents, executed leases, quality, utilities, or availability for any individual property.","ACS estimates describe occupied renter households within a statistical ZCTA across a five-year survey period; their burden and vacancy fields cannot establish a current applicant outcome or an open unit.","Historical growth, volatility, drawdown, and discovery ranks are measurements through the stated endpoint. They do not supply a causal explanation, a forecast, or an investment conclusion."],"qa":[{"a":"The figures measure separate evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level, typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a matched statistical ZCTA, and its gross-rent concept includes selected utilities. Because the populations, timing, and rent definitions differ, the comparison is informative but not interchangeable.","q":"Why can Zillow and ACS rents differ?"},{"a":"No. Each bedroom number is a modelled monthly ZIP estimate generated by taking ZORI and applying the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not a collection of current asking rents. The figures show a consistent relative scale, but cannot verify an individual unit’s advertised price, occupied rent, availability, or lease outcome.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed local rents?"},{"a":"The 1.8% figure is the exact same-month increase in Zillow ZORI through June 2026. It means the ZIP index was above its level in the matching month a year earlier. It is slower than the stated three-year and five-year annualized readings, documenting deceleration in the observed series, but it does not predict a renewal, advertised rent, or future index move.","q":"What does the one-year rent change mean?"},{"a":"No. ACS vacancy is a survey inventory category, and the rent-burden measure concerns occupied renter households and gross rent. Neither links to a specified address, listing date, applicant, utilities package, or lease. They can frame ZIP and ZCTA conditions at their source scope, but the listing’s documented facts are needed for a property-level comparison.","q":"Can vacancy or rent burden identify an available affordable unit?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1218.09886},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1211.845012},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1233.827252},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1251.147237},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1270.754282},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1280.072774},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1276.736174},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1277.532935},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1297.383517},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1330.628184},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1331.850218},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1346.675583},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1338.17238},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1359.67379},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1344.753068},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1356.858976},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1354.674378},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1381.069396},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1407.815222},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1434.285029},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1450.011266},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1456.417438},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1477.536217},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1480.575269},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1510.530212},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1525.264917},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1565.20967},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1557.535698},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1568.591209},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1563.485242},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1571.505258},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1582.089857},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1587.643178},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1605.035771},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1597.260675},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1605.127775},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1602.338235},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1602.716824},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1614.120165},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1632.643102},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1656.906959},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1660.423385},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1666.16774},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1661.150631},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1665.064785},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1652.383183},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1654.362235},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1666.511095},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1697.925174},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1717.428443},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1708.460198},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1698.158449},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1695.041234},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1706.316038},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1704.286731},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1703.620547},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1707.484894},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1719.347879},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1729.8731},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1727.439121},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1709.931946},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1702.58179},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1706.985896},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1717.890849},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1717.250577},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1717.988156},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1724.632487},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1734.582944}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":68,"firstPeriod":"2020-11-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":68,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1703.620547,"endRent":1734.582944,"change":0.018174467932148053,"cagr":0.018174467932148053},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1582.089857,"endRent":1734.582944,"change":0.09638712132897531,"cagr":0.031148723522496535},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1277.532935,"endRent":1734.582944,"change":0.35775986393650205,"cagr":0.06307668461394234}},"maxDrawdown":-0.015776480945336457,"annualizedVolatility":0.029950381525266138,"consecutiveReturnCount":67}}