The clearest current tension in ZIP 53713 is between tempered asking-rent movement and much faster resale pricing. Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, which blends rental types, is $1,478 per month and is 2.3% above its same-month reading a year earlier. In a separate direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, Redfin reports a $364,918 median sold price, up 8.9% year over year. Annualizing the ZIP ZORI and dividing it by that median price produces a 4.86% cross-source screening ratio. That arithmetic is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or valuation conclusion. The slower rent change alongside faster resale appreciation challenges any assumption that the markets are moving in lockstep.
Looking backward, the rent series retains a positive direction but its latest pace is below the longer path. Exact same-month ZIP ZORI changes annualize to 2.3% across 1 year, 2.8% across 3 years, and 6.2% across 5 years. Thus the latest gain confirms the historical upward direction, but it is slower than both multi-year measures rather than a continuation of their faster pace. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.7%, the maximum drawdown was -1.8%, and coverage was 98.5%. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were #1,237 for momentum, #995 for stability, and #916 for the balanced measure; lower is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Modest past variability and high coverage support more confidence in interpreting the current index snapshot than a sparse, jumpy series would, without making it predictive.
The bedroom presentation is a modelling device, not a set of observed ZIP asking rents. Scaling the ZIP-wide ZORI with the local HUD ladder yields a modelled monthly sequence, in ascending bedroom count from studio through four bedrooms, of $1,068, $1,126, $1,478, $1,989, and $2,350. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD’s fair-market-rent or small-area standard is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, while Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The modelled estimate matching the ZIP-wide index follows the scaling design; it does not validate any unit’s rent or establish a bedroom-specific market median.
Affordability evidence adds another source universe and a different timing frame. The matched Census ZCTA’s five-year ACS survey reports a $1,231 median gross rent for occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities and is not a current asking-rent measure. It reports a $58,017 median household income. Applying the current asking index to a 30% income screen gives $59,120 of required annual income, and the index equals 30.6% of that median income. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Within the surveyed renter population, 47.8% reported spending at least that threshold of income on rent. The burden share characterizes surveyed households and cannot prove the burden or affordability of a particular available unit.
The ZCTA housing profile captures stock composition and vacancy, but it should not be read as a live availability count. Of 12,104 housing units, 196 were vacant, a 1.6% vacancy rate, and 122 were classified as vacant for rent. Both single-family and larger multifamily structures appear in the surveyed stock, so the ZIP-wide rent index necessarily abstracts from structural variation. These are ACS ZCTA survey-based housing counts, not a current feed of listings, lease concessions, unit condition, or bedroom supply. In particular, the vacancy figures do not establish that any specific home can be rented, at what price, or under what lease terms.
Broader comparisons place the ZIP’s asking-rent index below each supplied geography, but they remain context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence. In the Madison city context, the rent figure is $1,656; in the Dane County context, it is $1,682; and in the Madison, WI metro context, it is $1,676. Each city, county, and metro figure is a wider-area contextual rent measure, not a ZIP listing or a direct ZIP transaction. The contrast is useful for framing relative levels, yet it neither explains the ZIP’s rent path nor proves that a specific property should be priced below, at, or above those wider geographies. The ZIP-level ZORI, ACS ZCTA results, HUD ladder, and Redfin resale series should remain analytically separate.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation provides liquidity signals only for resale, not rental transactions. It records 29 homes sold with median marketing time of 44 days. Inventory stood at 34 homes and months of supply were 3.6. The average sale-to-list ratio was 102.67%, and 57.2% of sold homes closed above list price. These measures sit alongside the prior median sold-price increase, but they do not turn resale activity into rental comparables or property operating economics. The sale-to-list signals and price rise challenge treating the slower rent series as a broad proxy for the resale market; conversely, slower ZORI growth prevents reading this for-sale record as a rental conclusion. The two evidence sets describe different transactions.
Several boundaries determine how much weight these figures can carry. The five-digit market label matches a Census ZCTA, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS margins of error apply to its survey estimates, and its occupied-home gross-rent measure may differ from current advertised terms. ZORI is an index rather than a unit-level quote; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin is a ZIP for-sale observation. A property-level review therefore needs the actual advertised rent, included utilities, bedroom configuration, availability date, lease terms, and the specific listing or closing record before matching a unit to any series. Which of those unit-specific checks would most change the interpretation of the current ZIP snapshot?
","findings":[{"body":"ZORI increased 2.3% from the same month a year earlier, whereas Redfin’s direct rolling resale observation showed an 8.9% median sold-price increase. Those observations come from distinct rental and for-sale universes. The 4.86% annualized-rent-to-price calculation is a cross-source screen only. It excludes unit-specific costs and cannot be labelled a property return or yield.","title":"Rent movement lags the resale price change"},{"body":"Same-month rent changes remained positive over the reported one-, three-, and five-year windows. However, the 2.3% latest annual pace is below the 2.8% three-year and 6.2% five-year annualized changes. With 2.7% annualized variability, a -1.8% maximum drawdown, and 98.5% series coverage, history supplies a relatively continuous retrospective index, not a forecast.","title":"Historical direction is positive, but the latest pace is slower"},{"body":"ACS represents occupied renter homes in a matched statistical area over five years, not today’s advertised rentals. Its median gross rent includes selected utilities and differs conceptually from ZORI. The 30% required-income result is a mathematical comparison with reported median household income; it is not a leasing standard, recommendation, or a test for a given applicant.","title":"Affordability measures describe households, not available units"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling ZIP resale window showed 29 homes sold, 44 median marketing days, 3.6 months of supply, and an average sale-to-list ratio above 100%. These are direct ZIP resale observations. They define observed activity in the for-sale market only and cannot serve as rental transactions, lease comparables, or evidence of a subject property’s economics.","title":"Resale liquidity is observable but is not a rental comparison"}],"risks":["The ZIP-wide ZORI blends rental types, and the bedroom figures are HUD-ladder modelled estimates. Applying either to a particular listing can misstate rent when configuration, included utilities, lease terms, condition, or availability differs.","ACS results are matched-ZCTA, five-year survey estimates with reported margins of error and occupied-home definitions. They can inform household context while differing from current ZIP asking rents and the terms offered for any unit.","Vacancy and vacant-for-rent counts are survey classifications, not a live leasing feed. They do not establish that a specific property is available, affordable, or comparable to the ZORI index.","Redfin’s direct ZIP figures represent a rolling resale window, not rentals. Sale-to-list, supply, and sale-price signals cannot establish operating costs, lease demand, unit income, or a property’s return."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes and time structures. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why can the current Zillow rent index and ACS median gross rent differ?"},{"a":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures scale the ZIP-wide ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are modelled monthly estimates intended to preserve that ladder’s relative steps. They do not constitute measured bedroom rents, unit-level quotes, rent medians, or evidence that a listed dwelling will be offered at the displayed amount.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates created, and what do they not show?"},{"a":"It divides the current ZIP asking-rent index by 30% and annualizes the result, producing an arithmetic comparison to the ZCTA median household income. It does not account for a household’s particular income, household size, debts, subsidies, lease terms, or a landlord’s qualification criteria. It is neither advice nor an applicant approval rule.","q":"What is the meaning of the 30% required-income screen?"},{"a":"No. Redfin’s supplied series is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale and resale observation. Its sold price, homes sold, days on market, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list signals describe resale transactions. They can be compared cautiously with the rent index as separate evidence, but cannot act as rental comps, property operating results, or evidence of a specific unit’s rent.","q":"Does the Redfin evidence describe rental-market liquidity?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1048.118944},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1062.510043},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1081.475258},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1094.248582},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1092.661854},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1085.31727},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1082.571247},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1092.32065},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1117.104558},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1135.072018},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1153.632239},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1162.52342},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1173.568394},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1182.462972},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1192.598037},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1211.485869},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1233.365555},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1249.184806},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1271.607746},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1299.389179},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1321.396337},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1329.4971},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1328.975356},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1343.793593},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1357.639046},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1358.109039},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1354.16145},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1347.962914},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1359.845435},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1375.468908},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1383.128704},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1368.914822},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1358.519297},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1372.079052},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1396.718909},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1407.576163},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1404.40901},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1412.058199},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1409.459345},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1412.967616},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1408.395343},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1417.976035},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1424.296626},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1437.421006},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1438.76048},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1428.321913},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1423.16599},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1418.757091},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1422.529345},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1428.531075},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1438.686908},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1445.330492},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1437.311711},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1433.988469},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1434.435318},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1442.696061},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1444.464388},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1448.444987},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1453.48137},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1464.779688},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1467.347756},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1473.897866},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1474.501403},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1478.030423}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":0.9846153846153847,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1445.330492,"endRent":1478.030423,"change":0.022624535482366204,"cagr":0.022624535482366204},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1359.845435,"endRent":1478.030423,"change":0.08691060392462902,"cagr":0.028169244166879714},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1092.661854,"endRent":1478.030423,"change":0.3526878581779427,"cagr":0.062281255895316745}},"maxDrawdown":-0.017792564733006833,"annualizedVolatility":0.026620337586282957,"consecutiveReturnCount":62}}