ZIP 53718 enters June 2026 with a cross-universe mismatch that should be kept separate rather than smoothed over. Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is $1,690 per month, up 4.1% from the same month a year earlier, while Redfin’s direct ZIP resale median price rose more slowly. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a transaction rent or a bedroom-specific quote. Annualized ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price produces a 4.7% cross-source screening ratio. That arithmetic is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or evidence of economics for an individual home. The gap requires distinct rental and for-sale readings, not a blended conclusion.
The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and this analysis’s matched Census ZCTA. The ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent for that ZCTA is $1,696. This five-year survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so its near match to ZORI does not make those measures interchangeable. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Wider context needs named scope: the City of Madison context rent is $1,656, Dane County’s context rent is $1,682, and the Madison, WI metro context rent is $1,676. Each comparator is wider than the ZIP and serves as context rather than substitute rental evidence.
HUD’s FY2026 local FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Its two-bedroom standard is $1,182. Scaling ZIP ZORI across the local HUD ladder yields monthly modelled estimates of $1,222 for a studio, $1,288 for a one-bedroom, $1,690 for a two-bedroom, $2,274 for a three-bedroom, and $2,687 for a four-bedroom. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The two-bedroom alignment with the overall ZORI follows the model construction, while ZORI itself remains blended across rental types. Neither the HUD standard nor the scaled ladder establishes what any currently listed unit is asking.
Affordability signals answer a different question from the rent series. Applying the 30% screen arithmetically to a $1,690 monthly asking-rent index produces $67,600 in annual required income; it is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $102,843. Among 3,619 surveyed renter-occupied homes, 1,140, or 31.5%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above that screen. This survey measure includes selected utilities and identifies a share of occupied renter homes, not the payment, burden, or eligibility of a particular household or unit.
ACS housing-stock evidence describes the ZCTA rather than a live inventory feed. It estimates 8,535 housing units and 454 vacant units, a 5.3% vacancy rate. Of the occupied stock, 3,619 homes are renter occupied, representing a 44.8% renter share; the balance is owner occupied. The stock spans single-family and large multifamily structures, and 174 vacant units are classified for rent. These classifications do not say when units become available, what they ask, or whether a vacancy applies to a particular property. Vacancy therefore cannot prove availability or conditions for any one unit.
The backward-looking Zillow history supplies a more measured reading of the rent path. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes are 4.1% over one year, 3.1% over three years, and 5.3% over five years. Recent direction thus confirms growth relative to the three-year pace but does not fully match the stronger five-year path. The series has 100% coverage at the stated endpoint. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.2%, which limits how much confidence should rest on a single current rent snapshot even within a fully covered history. Separately, the maximum drawdown from a prior peak was 1.5%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 760 for momentum, 271 for stability, and 185 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. These backward-looking measurements are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 30, 2026 has a $429,903 median sold price, up 1.8% from a year earlier. It records 92 homes sold, a 42-day median marketing time, 70 homes of inventory, and 2.3 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result is 100.94%, and 39.4% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale/resale observations, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. They challenge any assumption that the faster current ZORI increase automatically translates into equally fast resale-price growth, even as the ZIP’s resale record shows direct sale activity and above-list outcomes. The evidence sets a tension across universes rather than confirming a common transaction trend.
All of the figures are market-level indicators with source-specific limits: ZORI is a typical asking-rent index, ACS represents surveyed occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin measures direct ZIP resale outcomes. ACS estimates also have published margins of error, and neither ACS vacancy nor burden can be assigned to an individual unit or tenant. Concrete property-level checks must establish the actual bedroom count and unit type, current asking rent, included utilities, lease terms, size and condition, and relevant sale-listing history before any ZIP statistic is applied to a property. The unresolved question is whether those property facts align with the modelled ladder and the separate rental and resale screens without treating either as a guarantee.
","findings":[{"body":"At $1,690, the ZIP ZORI is close to the ACS ZCTA median gross rent of $1,696, but the similarity has limited interpretive value. Zillow tracks a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The comparison describes different rent universes and does not create a unit-level rent comp.","title":"Asking rent is near the ZCTA gross-rent median"},{"body":"The Zillow history is complete at the stated endpoint and shows annualized same-month growth of 4.1% over one year, 3.1% over three years, and 5.3% over five years. Monthly-return variability is 2.2%. The maximum drawdown is 1.5%. Ranks of 760 for momentum, 271 for stability, and 185 for balance are transparent national discovery ranks among eligible ZIPs; lower rank is stronger.","title":"History shows growth with a slower recent long-run comparison"},{"body":"The arithmetic 30% screen requires $67,600 annual income at current ZORI, compared with a $102,843 ACS median household income. It does not determine applicant eligibility. In the ACS renter-home universe, 31.5% report gross-rent burden at or above the screen, while the ZCTA’s 5.3% vacancy rate and 44.8% renter share describe aggregated housing conditions rather than a particular rental.","title":"Burden and vacancy are area-level survey signals"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record reports a $429,903 median sold price, 92 sales, 42 median days on market, 2.3 months of supply, and a 100.94% average sale-to-list result. The for-sale data show a slower 1.8% annual price change than ZORI’s 4.1% asking-rent change. That cross-universe difference is a screening tension, not proof that rent and sale prices move together.","title":"Resale activity does not move in lockstep with asking rent"}],"risks":["Source-universe risk: The close ZIP ZORI and ACS median values can appear corroborative even though one is a blended asking-rent index and the other is a utility-inclusive survey measure of occupied renter homes.","Aggregation risk: ZCTA stock, vacancy, renter share, income, and burden statistics summarize a five-year survey area with margins of error; they cannot determine the availability, cost, or tenant burden of a particular unit.","History-interpretation risk: Full coverage, historical variability, and the recorded drawdown describe past index behavior only. They do not establish future rent movement, property performance, or persistence of the current asking-rent reading.","Cross-market risk: The Redfin resale median and annualized ZORI are from separate transaction contexts. Their screening ratio cannot account for the features, terms, costs, or timing of an individual property."],"qa":[{"a":"In this packet, 53718 is used in two matching ways: Zillow identifies a ZIP rental market with that five-digit label, and ACS data are drawn from the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area built for Census tabulation, not an identical representation of a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"What does ZIP 53718 represent in this report?"},{"a":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD answer different measurement questions. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard by bedroom. The HUD-scaled bedroom figures are modelled estimates rather than measured rents.","q":"Why do Zillow ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards differ?"},{"a":"The history supports a description of prior index behavior, not a projection. The current one-year gain exceeds the three-year annualized pace but remains below the five-year pace. Full coverage, the variability measure, drawdown, and the national discovery ranks help calibrate confidence in one observation; they do not provide a forecast or property-specific investment conclusion.","q":"How should the rent-history measures be interpreted?"},{"a":"Redfin reports direct ZIP for-sale and resale conditions, including sale price, selling pace, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. It does not report rental leases or establish a property’s rental economics. The 4.7% ratio simply divides annualized ZORI by the ZIP median sold price, making it a cross-source screening ratio rather than a return measure.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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