ZIP 55124 opens with a split signal: its current asking-rent index remains elevated in the supplied local comparisons, yet its last matched-month rent reading and resale price evidence have cooled. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $1,955 per month. This is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a measured lease median, a bedroom-specific observation, or an individual property quote. The label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the match for the Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so an address-level boundary check still matters when applying this ZIP report.
Backward-looking ZORI history explains the cooling label. Exact same-month annualized change was -0.2% over 1 year, compared with +2.1% annually over 3 years and +3.5% annually over 5 years. Thus the most recent direction breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer positive path; these measurements do not forecast a next move. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.1%, and the maximum drawdown was -1.9%, both describing the observed index path rather than any unit. The supplied history has 100% coverage, and its transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,068 for momentum, 179 for stability, and 1,162 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. The restrained variability and shallow drawdown support somewhat more confidence in one current index snapshot, while the negative matched-month result still requires care.
Distinct rent universes explain why the figures cannot be merged. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,736; it surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it is not a current asking-rent comparator. The supplied local HUD ladder assigns a $1,709 two-bedroom standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The studio, one-, two-, three-, and four-bedroom figures of $1,421, $1,607, $1,955, $2,588, and $2,895 are modelled monthly ZIP estimates: they scale the ZORI using that local HUD ladder. They are never measured bedroom rents; the two-bedroom figure matches the index by construction.
The affordability screen reinforces the difference between arithmetic and lived household distributions. Annualizing the ZIP ZORI produces a required household income of $78,200 at a 30% rent-to-income screen. This is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA’s median household income is $97,727, making the supplied asking-rent-to-income comparison 24.0%; it is a broad household benchmark, not a statement that a median renter pays that share. Separately, 2,949 of 5,736 occupied renter households report gross-rent burdens at or above the screen, a 51.4% ACS share. This burden is an aggregate survey measure and cannot demonstrate affordability, payment stress, or eligibility for a particular unit.
The ZCTA stock profile places those aggregates in a predominantly owner-occupied setting without converting vacancy into leasing evidence. Of 22,002 housing units, 386 were vacant, a 1.8% vacancy rate. The renter-occupied share was 26.5% of occupied homes. Structure counts show 17,169 single-family units, with large-multifamily and other structures making up the balance. These are ACS stock and occupancy counts, not an inventory of currently rentable units or a claim about the condition, terms, or availability of any specific home. In particular, the area-wide vacancy figure does not prove that a given bedroom type, building, or listing can be leased.
Broader figures are context only, not substitutes for the ZIP observation. Apple Valley city context has a nearly identical current asking-rent index and similarly aligned renter share and vacancy rate. Dakota County context reports typical asking rent of $1,687, while the Minneapolis–St. Paul–Bloomington, MN–WI metro context reports $1,727; both are below the ZIP index. The county and metro comparisons make the ZIP reading relatively high within these named wider scopes, but they do not identify why, do not replace a ZIP rental comp, and do not establish a property-level premium. The city, county, and metro metrics remain separate geographic evidence universes.
Resale data confirm one side of the cooling narrative but challenge a simple weak-market reading. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation—not rental transactions—shows a $376,915 median sold price, down 5.5% year over year. It also records 213 homes sold and a 20-day median marketing time. Inventory was 168 homes, up 47.1%, with 2.4 months of supply. At the same time, average sale-to-list was 100.47%, 39.2% of sales were above list, and 57.3% went off market promptly. The falling price and larger inventory align with the rent/history cooling screen, whereas turnover, short marketing time, and sale-to-list signals show that the direct resale record was not uniformly slack. The 6.2% annualized ZIP-ZORI-to-median-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property cash-flow or return measure.
None of these sources identifies the terms of a particular property. Zillow blends rental types; ACS is a historical survey of occupied households; HUD is a standard; and Redfin is resale evidence. A property-level review should first confirm the exact address falls in the Zillow market and matched ZCTA rather than relying on a USPS delivery label. It should then check observed asking price, bedroom count, property type, listing date, concessions, lease length, included utilities and fees, actual availability, and any sale comparables’ condition and timing. Those checks can test whether a unit resembles the relevant source universe without treating the index, burden share, vacancy rate, or resale screen as proof. Which verified property facts would materially change the interpretation of this cooling-but-active ZIP snapshot?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP index is $1,955. Exact same-month history shows a -0.2% one-year change after annualized gains of 2.1% over three years and 3.5% over five years. That recent decline breaks from the multiyear path. Full supplied coverage, 2.1% annualized monthly-return variability, and a -1.9% drawdown describe a comparatively restrained historical index path, not a forecast.","title":"Cooling interrupts a longer rent advance"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD answer different questions. ZORI is an observed blended asking-rent index; the ACS ZCTA median gross rent is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes with selected utilities; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard. Scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled bedroom estimates, including $1,421 for a studio and $2,895 for four bedrooms. Those are not measured bedroom rents.","title":"Source-separated rent ladder"},{"body":"The $78,200 figure is simply the income implied by annualizing ZORI at a 30% screen. It does not describe an applicant rule. The broader ZCTA median household income is $97,727, while 51.4% of surveyed occupied renter households have gross-rent burdens at or above 30%. This combination is useful for aggregate comparison, but it cannot establish what any household or available unit can afford.","title":"Income screen and burden measure different things"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale record has a falling median sale price but continuing transaction activity: $376,915 median price, 213 homes sold, 20 days on market, and 2.4 months of supply. Inventory increased 47.1%, while average sale-to-list remained 100.47%. The price and inventory signals accord with cooling, but turnover and pricing signals challenge a conclusion that the for-sale market was uniformly slack. These are resale, not rental, observations.","title":"Resale softness coexists with active transactions"}],"risks":["Geographic matching is imperfect: 55124 operates as a Zillow market identifier and Census ZCTA match, while USPS delivery ZIP boundaries can differ; address eligibility must be checked independently.","ZORI’s blended asking index does not establish executed lease rent, unit condition, concessions, utility obligations, fees, or current availability, and its bedroom ladder is modelled rather than measured.","The ACS figures reflect a five-year survey of occupied renter households and carry sampling uncertainty; gross-rent burden and vacancy aggregates cannot prove circumstances or availability for any individual unit.","Redfin’s rolling resale record is separate from rental transactions. Its annualized rent-to-price calculation excludes property-specific costs and cannot establish cash flow, return, or resale outcomes."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,955 Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index across a blended rental mix. The $1,736 ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. HUD’s bedroom standards are administrative FMR/SAFMR benchmarks. Different timing, unit universes, and definitions mean none is a direct replacement for another.","q":"Why is the ZIP asking-rent index different from ACS median gross rent and HUD standards?"},{"a":"The history is a sequence of direct Zillow ZIP ZORI observations through its stated endpoint. Its one-year decline contrasts with positive three- and five-year annualized changes, meaning recent direction broke from the longer path. The complete supplied coverage, variability measurement, drawdown, and discovery ranks help assess record consistency, but they do not predict future asking rents or sales prices.","q":"What does the history say about the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"No. Each bedroom estimate takes the overall ZIP ZORI and scales it by the local HUD bedroom ladder relative to the two-bedroom standard. This preserves the index as the center point and creates a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom spread. It does not add unit-level lease observations, so bedroom count, property type, utilities, condition, concessions, and availability still need independent verification.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual observed rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"Redfin documents ZIP resale outcomes during a rolling three-month period, including prices, completed sales, inventory, marketing time, and list-price signals. It is not a rental-comp set. A property-level review should verify exact address geography, appropriate bedroom and property-type matches, listing and closing dates, condition, asking terms, fees, utilities, concessions, and actual availability before attaching these aggregates to a specific property.","q":"What should be checked before applying these ZIP aggregates to a property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1419.541483},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1401.115011},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1419.710676},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1403.841041},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1409.161628},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1417.483781},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1446.683892},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1458.327922},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1463.886829},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1464.29518},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1451.886056},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1460.25093},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1478.094885},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1504.911165},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1500.689897},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1518.261616},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1518.359532},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1523.747436},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1516.542856},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1520.997604},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1520.865333},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1522.309035},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1539.655894},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1556.101193},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1558.064729},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1565.619783},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1572.929585},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1593.569133},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1594.261757},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1604.469196},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1601.376208},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1611.140115},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1613.628289},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1623.135079},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1624.50733},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1633.464131},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1645.5158},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1639.221982},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1637.703544},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1634.519644},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1648.909117},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1665.261186},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1689.95005},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1706.23811},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1723.770328},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1729.126204},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1745.449886},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1739.513019},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1738.180692},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1736.157934},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1748.4213},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1766.322769},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1764.888736},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1765.327401},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1765.677158},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1766.949962},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1772.179443},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1769.641362},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1782.955324},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1792.649281},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1815.693028},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1825.778615},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1840.451474},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1834.490844},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1837.072679},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1841.562976},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1850.919843},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1862.109727},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1855.487153},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1862.646231},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1861.571645},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1868.219602},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1869.464768},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1871.293315},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1861.012432},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1871.048259},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1889.882515},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1904.285629},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1906.010213},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1895.485768},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1907.573472},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1905.583377},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1913.602466},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1917.59843},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1925.991087},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1927.686424},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1925.958917},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1947.209741},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1959.257518},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1959.41307},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1965.832556},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1979.839855},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1983.064532},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1991.362162},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1991.143883},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1990.465975},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1984.969811},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1985.612253},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1992.173672},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1973.472274},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1955.177456}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":101,"firstPeriod":"2018-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":101,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1959.257518,"endRent":1955.177456,"change":-0.0020824531550935887,"cagr":-0.0020824531550935887},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1837.072679,"endRent":1955.177456,"change":0.06428965949473997,"cagr":0.020986377462875128},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1648.909117,"endRent":1955.177456,"change":0.18573997550405918,"cagr":0.034660554564378554}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0185707785018856,"annualizedVolatility":0.02075804486045233,"consecutiveReturnCount":100}}