ZIP 55303’s clearest current signal is a $1,584 Zillow ZORI for June 2026. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a ZIP-level market indicator rather than a promised lease rate for a specified property. The supplied direct ZIP ZORI same-month history records a 5.06% rise over 1 year, 4.77% annualized growth over 3 years, and 4.85% annualized growth over 5 years. The latest direction therefore confirms rather than breaks from the longer upward path. These are backward-looking measurements only: they neither forecast rent nor express an investment recommendation.
That ZIP index stands below each broader comparator: Ramsey city context rent is $1,968, Anoka County context rent is $1,732, and Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI metro context rent is $1,727; all three are wider-scope context, not replacements for the ZIP observation. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,434, and ZORI is 10.5% above it. This is a source-universe difference, not a contradiction: ACS summarizes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks an asking-rent index. The comparison is most useful as a cue that current advertised-market conditions and the surveyed occupied stock have different definitions.
Geography is another boundary on interpretation. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS five-year survey is therefore aligned by that ZCTA rather than by every possible postal delivery boundary. Its gross-rent median is for occupied renter homes, while Zillow’s index is composed from observed asking-rent signals across rental types; neither source is a complete current-listing inventory or a property ledger. Keeping these evidence universes separate prevents the ACS figure from being treated as a discount available to a new renter, or the ZORI reading from being treated as a utility-inclusive tenant payment.
Bedroom detail is derived, not observed. The modelled monthly ZIP estimates, created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder, are $1,151 for a studio, $1,302 for one bedroom, $1,584 for two, $2,097 for three, and $2,346 for four. They describe a proportional estimate of the index across bedroom sizes and must never be read as measured bedroom rents. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; the ZIP index is 7.3% below its two-bedroom standard. The ladder can organize a size-based comparison, but it does not establish an advertised rate, lease terms, unit condition, or utility treatment for any address.
At a 30% rent-to-income screen, annualizing the monthly index produces a $63,360 required household income. That is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA’s median household income is $102,986, and the index-to-income ratio is 18.5%; this aggregate contrast cannot assign affordability to a household because income, household size, utilities, and lease terms differ. Separate ACS burden evidence is more cautionary: 2,384 of 4,867 renter households, or 49.0%, report gross-rent burdens of at least 30% of income. Gross rent includes selected utilities, and the result describes surveyed occupied renter homes; it does not prove that a particular available unit is affordable or burdensome.
Stock indicators frame how much of the ZCTA is renter occupied without identifying a unit. Of 20,684 housing units, 560 are vacant, a 2.7% overall vacancy rate; 15,257 are owner occupied and 4,867 renter occupied, making renters 24.2% of occupied homes. Vacancy classifications include inventory designated for rent, but aggregate vacancy is not evidence of immediate availability, price, bedroom count, or eligibility at a particular property. The renter share is higher than the Ramsey city context share and the Anoka County context share, but those named city and county aggregates remain context only. The stock measures describe a broad housing base, not turnover, concessions, or the condition of a prospective home.
History quality moderates confidence in the current snapshot. The series has 100% supplied coverage through the stated endpoint, with annualized monthly-return volatility of 2.8% and a maximum drawdown of -2.4%. This variability shows that a single current index can move and is not a precise property quote, even though the recent same-month direction aligns with the longer measured path. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 337 for momentum, 1,172 for stability, and 284 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. These backward-looking ranks are not forecasts or recommendations. The remaining property-level checks are advertised rent, bedroom count, lease term, separately billed utilities, fees, availability date, and whether the listing’s geography falls within the intended delivery area. Do those listing facts match the definitions needed for a valid comparison with this ZIP-level evidence?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI reading for ZIP 55303 is a current typical observed asking-rent index, not a property quote. Same-month historical growth was positive across the supplied one-, three-, and five-year windows, so the latest measured rise aligns with the longer history. The result remains backward-looking and cannot establish a future rent path.","title":"Current index and historical direction"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent and Zillow ZORI serve different evidence universes. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ZCTA match is statistical, not a USPS delivery ZIP, so geographic and definition boundaries both matter.","title":"ACS and ZORI answer different questions"},{"body":"The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates derived by scaling the ZIP index with the local HUD ladder. They are useful for a size-based comparison only. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and the resulting figures do not measure actual advertised or leased rents for any bedroom size.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled"},{"body":"The income screen annualizes the index at a thirty-percent rent-to-income threshold and is only arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS burden and vacancy statistics are aggregate descriptions of surveyed renter households and housing units. They cannot demonstrate that any particular unit is available, affordable, eligible, utility-inclusive, or representative of current listings.","title":"Affordability and stock require unit-level confirmation"}],"risks":["The ZIP-level ZORI is blended across rental types and represents a typical observed asking-rent index. A specific advertised home can differ because its size, timing, utilities, lease terms, and fees are not specified by the index.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography and not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Boundary differences can matter when applying ZIP-level market evidence to a listing’s precise location or mailing address.","Bedroom amounts are modelled by the local HUD ladder, while FMR/SAFMR is administrative rather than asking rent. Treating those estimates as measured rents would overstate the precision available for a particular size or property.","Aggregate vacancy does not identify an available rental, and renter burden does not identify a tenant’s payment capacity. Those measures use broad groups, source-specific definitions, and survey evidence rather than unit-level facts."],"qa":[{"a":"The reported Zillow figure is a ZIP-level ZORI, defined here as a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for a current market snapshot, but it is not a guaranteed quote, a utility-inclusive tenant bill, or an observation of one exact bedroom category.","q":"What is the current rent figure actually measuring?"},{"a":"The ACS figure comes from the matched ZCTA’s five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities in gross rent. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Different time construction, occupancy universe, and utility treatment mean the values answer different questions rather than providing competing quotes.","q":"Why can the ACS median gross rent differ from Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates generated by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The result supports proportional comparison by bedroom count but does not observe listings, lease executions, utility charges, or property condition.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for available homes?"},{"a":"The historical series supplies backward-looking same-month changes, monthly-return variability, drawdown, coverage, and transparent discovery ranks among eligible ZIPs. Positive prior growth does not forecast future asking rent. The variability measures mean that one current index is a useful market snapshot but not a precise substitute for the advertised rent, term, utilities, fees, and availability of a chosen property.","q":"How should the historical series and discovery ranks affect confidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1197.448403},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1205.458078},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1224.65592},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1230.608677},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1235.210803},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1241.039344},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1249.969801},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1262.17162},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1270.261541},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1282.946731},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1297.44934},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1305.641332},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1310.356895},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1302.534219},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1296.848778},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1293.595528},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1300.62158},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1312.534243},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1327.761071},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1337.40057},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1345.826795},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1350.047841},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1347.62387},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1342.135367},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1347.382083},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1359.058227},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1380.689308},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1380.827565},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1383.771569},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1379.301361},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1376.942348},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1382.097792},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1383.197888},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1387.901376},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1385.458082},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1422.050815},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1422.829598},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1432.351078},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1398.591756},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1424.844295},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1425.273518},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1437.542929},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1433.04682},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1450.260073},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1456.744969},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1450.042136},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1438.992416},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1425.418356},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1451.689318},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1473.315637},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1495.177719},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1488.499012},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1488.93907},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1502.994928},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1507.27586},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1502.985161},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1509.508375},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1525.387115},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1549.974108},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1557.657268},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1549.350736},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1539.785833},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1549.914679},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1556.667812},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1570.430556},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1569.103238},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1583.576923}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1507.27586,"endRent":1583.576923,"change":0.05062183043255275,"cagr":0.05062183043255275},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1376.942348,"endRent":1583.576923,"change":0.15006770276194592,"cagr":0.047710112616429434},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1249.969801,"endRent":1583.576923,"change":0.2668921455007216,"cagr":0.048450494150358736}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0235691671675482,"annualizedVolatility":0.027590819783311713,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}