The five-digit label 55406 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow’s ZIP ZORI was $1,436 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blending rental types, rather than an offer price for any unit or a tenant-paid average. This current index anchors the rental reading, while the survey, administrative standard, and resale evidence below remain separate evidence universes that answer different questions.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation recorded a $384,913 median sold price, up 1.29% year over year, with 147 homes sold and a median 12-day marketing time. Active listings rose, while reported inventory was 53 homes, higher than a year earlier; months of supply stood at 1.1. The average sale-to-list ratio was 103.96%, 61.6% of sales closed above list, and 71.92% went off market within two weeks. These are direct for-sale signals, not rental transactions. The modest resale price increase confirms the positive direction in rent history, yet higher active listings and inventory beside quick turnover produce a resale tension rather than a simple tight-or-loose label; this for-sale evidence cannot establish tenant affordability. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is an approximately 4.48% cross-source screening ratio; it does not measure expenses, financing, unit mix, or property-level economics.
For wider-geography context only, Minneapolis citywide rent context was about $1,686, Hennepin County rent context was $1,766, and the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI metro rent context was $1,727. Each comparison names a wider scope rather than a substitute for ZIP-level evidence. The ZIP’s lower asking-rent index can be read beside those contexts, but it does not establish a city, county, or metro rent for a particular unit in the ZIP. This geographic contrast makes source boundaries more informative than a single market label.
History points to stable positive asking-rent movement, though recent pace is below its longer record. Exact same-month annualized change was 1.85% over one year, versus 2.56% over three years and 3.29% over five years. Thus the latest direction confirms the longer upward path but breaks from its faster longer-run pace. Annualized monthly-return variability of 1.69% indicates limited dispersion in monthly index changes; that supports more confidence in one current rent snapshot than a highly erratic series would, without guaranteeing persistence. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 1.24%, the worst observed peak-to-trough retreat. Coverage was 100% across 64 observations and 63 consecutive returns. Transparent nationwide discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 28 for stability, 1,428 for momentum, and 474 for the balanced score, where lower ranks are stronger. All are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Zillow’s asking-rent index should not be merged with the ACS result. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,281 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities. The asking index was 12.1% above that survey median, a difference in evidence universe rather than a demonstrated change in the same homes. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard was $1,709; this bedroom-specific administrative standard is not asking rent, and the ZIP ZORI equaled 84.0% of it. Each measure provides a distinct benchmark rather than interchangeable rental comparables.
Bedroom detail is therefore a model, not a bedroom-rent observation. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,044 for a studio, $1,181 for one bedroom, $1,436 for two bedrooms, $1,901 for three bedrooms, and $2,127 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom estimate matches the ZIP index by construction. These figures preserve the local HUD relative ladder around ZORI; they are never measured bedroom rents, current listing quotes, or proof that units at those amounts are available. The HUD ladder remains an administrative standard rather than an asking-rent survey.
The matched ZCTA’s median household income was $93,910. Annualized ZIP ZORI relative to that area-level income was 18.3%. Applying a 30% income share to the monthly asking-rent index produces a required annual income of $57,440; that screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. A different ACS indicator reports 2,425 renter households meeting or exceeding that threshold, or 41.9% of renter households in its survey universe. That burden statistic describes occupied renters, while the income ratio uses the ZIP asking index and all-household median income. Neither result proves burden, affordability, or eligibility for any particular home or household.
Housing-stock evidence is likewise area-level. The ACS ZCTA counted 17,939 housing units and 940 vacant units, for a 5.24% vacancy rate; 420 vacant units were classified for rent. Owner-occupied units outnumbered renter-occupied units, and single-family structures outnumbered large multifamily buildings. Those totals neither establish that a vacancy is currently advertised nor identify an individual building’s condition or lease terms. Relevant property-level checks are advertised rent, included utilities, bedroom count, availability date, condition, concessions, lease terms, and comparable current listings; for a resale-linked screen, actual sale price and ownership costs are separate inputs. The unresolved question is whether those property facts align with this ZIP-level evidence.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP asking-rent index remains the current rental anchor, while exact same-month history shows positive growth over one, three, and five years. The latest one-year rate trails the annualized longer windows, so the direction persists but the pace has slowed. Limited historical month-to-month variability and a shallow prior decline improve contextual confidence in the snapshot without converting history into a forecast.","title":"Rent path remains positive but has slowed"},{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP resale record shows short marketing time, above-list outcomes, and a low supply reading even as active listings and inventory increased. Those observations describe homes sold and marketed for sale, not rental deals. The annual rent-to-price calculation is a cross-source comparison only; it excludes expenses, financing, property condition, lease terms, and any linkage between a sold home and a rental unit.","title":"Resale is a separate, fast-moving screen"},{"body":"The income screen annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index against area-level median household income, whereas ACS burden counts occupied renter households reporting a specified rent share. Their different denominators, time frames, and rent definitions make them complementary rather than interchangeable. The income threshold at the chosen share is arithmetic only, and neither measure establishes affordability, rent burden, or qualification for a particular household or unit.","title":"Affordability metrics answer separate questions"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA survey indicates a housing base dominated by owner occupancy and single-family structures, with renter homes and vacant-for-rent units also recorded. It is an area-level, multi-year survey rather than a live availability feed. ZCTA geography is statistical and differs from USPS delivery geography, so the findings frame the Zillow ZIP identifier but cannot verify the condition, rent, vacancy, or lease status of a specific property.","title":"Stock data sets a boundary, not availability"}],"risks":["A ZIP ZORI blends rental types and represents typical observed asking rent, so it may not match a specific unit’s bedroom count, utilities, condition, concessions, timing, or lease terms.","ACS figures are five-year survey estimates for a matched statistical area and occupied households; their margins of error and geographic boundary prevent use as a current unit-level availability or burden finding.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks rather than observed asking rents. Scaling ZORI by the local ladder produces modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents or quoted listings.","Redfin’s resale observations are rolling-three-month for-sale data. Rapid marketing and sale-to-list signals neither report rental transactions nor demonstrate conditions, occupancy, costs, or property-level economics."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Differing time frames, populations, utility treatment, and geography mean the two values are not expected to coincide.","q":"Why can Zillow ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They start with the ZIP ZORI and scale it by the relative local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking-rent evidence, so the output cannot identify measured rents, available listings, or any unit’s price.","q":"Are the bedroom values observed rents?"},{"a":"No. Applying the stated share to the current asking-rent index simply converts rent into an annual income threshold. It is not advice and does not set an applicant rule. ACS rent burden instead summarizes surveyed occupied renter households meeting or exceeding that share. Different populations and rent definitions mean neither result determines a particular household’s affordability or qualification.","q":"Does the 30% screen establish affordability for a household?"},{"a":"The Zillow history documents past same-month index movement, with variability, drawdown, completeness, and nationwide discovery ranks providing context for the reliability of that record. Redfin is separate rolling resale evidence. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price makes a cross-source screening ratio, but neither history nor resale data measures expenses, lease terms, tenant affordability, or property-level economics.","q":"How should the history and resale comparison be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1202.406652},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1221.029848},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1225.484217},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1222.042284},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1217.629455},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1231.86952},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1233.968304},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1239.177279},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1251.23844},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1274.217018},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1290.231222},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1289.965212},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1294.380424},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1303.392905},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1314.554068},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1317.380907},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1322.106833},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1323.984725},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1330.169817},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1335.982942},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1326.454083},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1331.746232},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1328.119837},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1337.900949},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1331.5652},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1330.16603},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1327.713774},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1331.747433},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1335.952897},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1342.426257},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1346.459965},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1342.271122},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1340.773177},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1329.813774},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1336.285763},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1348.274665},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1361.252877},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1360.920865},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1368.037277},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1367.622558},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1370.085991},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1365.217949},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1373.252752},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1377.909326},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1386.694914},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1390.834365},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1392.865253},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1393.35923},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1395.681327},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1399.004731},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1401.280534},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1410.348774},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1413.890363},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1421.752662},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1420.0267},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1424.644838},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1427.467257},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1434.925182},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1437.086309},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1435.093327},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1434.356244},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1438.128936},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1438.824462},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1436.47402}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1410.348774,"endRent":1436.47402,"change":0.018523961222658647,"cagr":0.018523961222658647},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1331.747433,"endRent":1436.47402,"change":0.07863847483759345,"cagr":0.025554243132129617},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1222.042284,"endRent":1436.47402,"change":0.17546998070976727,"cagr":0.032862021183087675}},"maxDrawdown":-0.012362930523522886,"annualizedVolatility":0.016916477766898273,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}