In the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 30, 2026, the median sold price was $339,423, down 3.85% year over year. At the same point, June 2026 Zillow ZORI—the ZIP’s typical observed asking-rent index—stood at $1,482, up 3.39%. Those directions create the report’s central tension: asking rent rose while the resale median fell. Annualizing ZORI and dividing it by the sale price produces a 5.24% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Redfin’s observation concerns for-sale resale transactions, whereas ZORI follows asking rents, so it cannot show what a given rental property earned.
The five-digit label 55407 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, which matters when reading the non-Zillow survey fields. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-specific quote. For wider context only, the Minneapolis city Zillow-rent context was $1,686, the Hennepin County Zillow-rent context was $1,766, and the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI metro Zillow-rent context was $1,727. Each of those city, county, and metro measures exceeds the ZIP reading, but none replaces ZIP-level evidence.
The backward-looking ZORI record supports a stable-growth description rather than an uninterrupted climb. Exact same-month change was 3.39% over one year, compared with annualized 4.00% over three years and 3.80% over five years. Recent growth therefore modestly slows from the longer path but confirms its positive direction; it does not establish a future path. Coverage was 100% through the stated endpoint. Monthly rent changes translate to 2.89% annualized variability, which permits more confidence in the current index than a highly erratic series would. Separately, the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown reached 3.56%, showing that the historical path did have setbacks. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 704 for momentum, 1,417 for stability, and 693 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. These are descriptive ranks and backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Different rent universes explain why the ZIP figures should not be substituted for one another. The ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched ZCTA places median gross rent at $1,291 with a $65 margin of error; it describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, not current asking rent. HUD’s FY2026 fair-market-rent/SAFMR ladder is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard—not asking rent—and its two-bedroom standard is $1,709. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,077 for a studio, $1,218 for one bedroom, $1,482 for two bedrooms, $1,962 for three bedrooms, and $2,195 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they inherit the ZIP index and HUD ladder’s limitations.
Income and burden evidence adds a separate household lens. Matched-ZCTA ACS median household income was $78,464, while the 30% required-income screen for the $1,482 monthly ZORI is $59,280 annually. That screen is arithmetic only: it is not affordability advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. ACS estimates 6,078 renter households, with 3,227, or 53.1%, spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. In wider context only, that burden share exceeds the Minneapolis city scope at 48.1% and the Hennepin County scope at 47.6%; the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI metro context has a 20.8% rent-to-income measure, which is a different calculation. Burden is household-survey evidence, not proof that any particular available unit is affordable or unaffordable.
Housing supply in the ACS matched ZCTA totals 16,078 units, with an 8.0% vacancy rate, while renters occupy a 41.1% share of occupied homes. Single-family units outnumber units in large multifamily structures, so the stock is not represented by just one building form. ACS separately counts homes vacant for rent, for sale, and seasonal use; those classifications support an area-level view of supply rather than a claim about a unit’s availability, condition, pricing, or lease terms. The ZIP vacancy rate is above both the Minneapolis city context and Hennepin County context. Neither the aggregate vacancy measure nor renter burden establishes the status of any particular unit.
Liquidity signals in the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale file are firmer than the falling price alone might suggest, without resolving the rent-versus-price tension. The file records 111 homes sold and a median 17 days on market; both active listings and inventory were higher than a year earlier, with 2.2 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 102.7%, and 51.9% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale marketing and transaction signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Thus, the resale price decline challenges the steadier historical asking-rent rise, whereas short marketing time and above-list outcomes show active resale turnover during the observation window. Neither signal proves a cause, predicts a change, or converts the asking-rent screen into property economics.
Several limits remain material. Zillow is an index rather than a count of signed leases; ACS is a multi-year ZCTA survey; HUD is a standard; and Redfin is a rolling resale observation. They differ in timing, population, and purpose, so close-looking figures cannot be merged into a single rent or valuation conclusion. For a specific property, confirm contemporaneous unit-level asking rents, bedroom and bathroom layout, stated utility treatment, lease length, concessions, condition, and availability date. Separately verify recent closed-sale comparables, listing dates, sale-to-list results, and property condition before comparing the resale figures. Check whether the property’s geography truly aligns with the relevant ZIP/ZCTA boundary. Do unit-specific facts preserve or overturn the area-level tension between measured asking-rent history, surveyed burden, and observed resale pricing?
","findings":[{"body":"June ZORI was $1,482 after a 3.39% same-month annual increase, while the direct rolling-three-month Redfin median sale price was $339,423, down 3.85% year over year. That divergence is the central observation. The 5.24% annualized-rent-to-price figure is a cross-source screen only, not a property-level performance metric.","title":"Opposing rent and resale signals"},{"body":"The HUD-scaled studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not recorded bedroom-rent observations. They start with ZIP ZORI and apply the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, while ACS median gross rent is a separate survey measure, so neither source validates an individual listing’s bedroom rent.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled rather than observed"},{"body":"ACS estimates that 53.1% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on gross rent, above the supplied Minneapolis city and Hennepin County context shares. This is not a measure of a current listing’s affordability because gross rent includes selected utilities and the survey reflects occupied renter homes rather than current asking inventory.","title":"Household burden is elevated in the survey"},{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP resale observation showed short marketing time, sales above list on average, and more than half of sales closing above list, even as the median sale price declined year over year. These facts describe the for-sale market only. They challenge a simple reading of steadily rising asking rents but do not establish rental demand, property economics, or future pricing.","title":"Resale turnover remains active despite lower prices"}],"risks":["A current ZORI snapshot blends rental types and represents asking-rent conditions, so it can differ materially from a specific unit’s lease terms, utility treatment, condition, concessions, and availability date.","The matched ZCTA ACS figures are five-year survey estimates of occupied homes, carry stated sampling uncertainty, and do not identify current asking rents or the burden status of a particular rental unit.","The bedroom series inherits both the ZIP ZORI index and HUD ladder assumptions. It should not be treated as measured studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit asking rent evidence.","Redfin’s rolling resale indicators describe for-sale listings and completed sales. A lower median sale price alongside quick marketing does not establish a cause, a rental outcome, or a future market direction."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The series therefore have different timing, populations, and rent concepts, so their difference is not a contradiction.","q":"Why is ACS gross rent lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, signed-lease data, or a substitute for contemporaneous listings matched by bedroom count, utility treatment, condition, and lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"It annualizes the $1,482 monthly ZIP ZORI and divides by 30%, producing $59,280. This is an arithmetic comparison point for the index, not affordability advice, a finding about utilities, or an applicant qualification rule. Individual lease terms and household circumstances are outside the screen.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"No. Redfin provides a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation covering sold prices, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior in the for-sale market. It does not measure rental transactions, lease revenue, expenses, individual-property performance, or the future path of rents or prices.","q":"Does the Redfin price result measure rental performance?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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