In June 2026, Zillow ZORI for the five-digit ZIP label 55408 is $1,519 per month, a 3.49% same-month increase. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quoted lease price. Within wider context, the Minneapolis city-scope rent is higher than this ZIP reading, the Hennepin County-scope rent is $1,766, and the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI metro-scope rent is $1,727; each is context, not a ZIP reading. The label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The historical tension is not a reversal but a recent pickup within a stable recorded path. At the June endpoint, exact same-month annualized change is one-year 3.49%, three-year 2.52%, and five-year 2.12%. The recent direction therefore confirms rather than breaks from the longer growth record because the short-window rate is higher. Annualized monthly-return variability is 1.77%, maximum drawdown is -4.75%, and the series has 100% coverage. National discovery ranks are 1,001 for momentum, 44 for stability, and 226 for balanced performance, where a lower rank is higher among history-eligible ZIPs. Lower measured variability supports comparatively more confidence in a current index snapshot than a highly erratic series would, but the drawdown documents that the snapshot has moved down at times. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
That current index answers a different question from the ACS 2024 five-year matched ZCTA survey, which estimates a $1,364 median gross rent among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The index sits above the survey median, but the comparison is not a rent quote or a like-for-like price test: ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents, whereas ACS describes resident households over a survey period. Different dates, rental-type composition, occupancy status, and utility treatment prevent assigning the gap to a bedroom category, a particular listing, or a change in landlord pricing. The two figures are useful together only when their distinct evidence universes remain explicit.
Bedroom specificity is constructed rather than observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly estimates of $1,104 for a studio, $1,249 for one bedroom, $1,519 for two bedrooms, $2,011 for three bedrooms, and $2,250 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent: its corresponding standards begin at $1,242, have $1,709 at the shared middle tier, and end at $2,531. The ladder establishes relative bedroom scaling for the ZIP index; it does not convert any HUD standard into an observed listing price or lease transaction.
The income screen provides another separate lens. Applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the current index produces required annual income of $60,760, compared with ZCTA median household income of $70,326. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and the median is an area-wide household measure rather than a profile of a prospective renter. Separately, ACS reports that 13,257 renter households are represented in the burden universe and that 41.08% have gross-rent burden at or above that threshold. Area-level burden is meaningful evidence of reported household pressure, but it neither proves that a particular available unit is affordable nor establishes an individual household's eligibility or housing costs.
Housing counts reinforce the importance of not treating the index as a property inventory. The ZCTA contains 18,433 housing units and has a 5.91% vacancy rate. Renter households account for 76.44% of occupied housing, while 7,752 units are recorded in large multifamily structures. Those totals describe the survey area's housing stock and occupancy composition, not the number, condition, pricing, or timing of units currently marketed. In particular, a vacancy measure is not evidence that a specific apartment is available, that it carries a concession, or that its advertised rent matches the ZIP index. The renter-heavy occupancy mix supplies context for the ACS renter measures without converting them into property-level facts.
The practical limits are as important as the headline rent. ZORI is a ZIP-level index, ACS is a survey estimate for occupied renter homes, HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, and city, county, and metro values are wider context only. None identifies the actual terms of a listed apartment. A property-level comparison requires the advertised monthly amount, stated bedroom count, utility inclusions, concessions, fees, lease term, availability date, and confirmation that the unit is actively offered. Historical stability can make the ZIP snapshot easier to interpret than a sharply fluctuating series, but it does not replace those checks. The closing question is whether the specific listing's quoted rent and included costs align with the relevant modelled tier and the household's own circumstances.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's June 2026 ZIP asking-rent index is $1,519, below the broader Minneapolis city context, Hennepin County context of $1,766, and metro context of $1,727. Same-month annualized growth is 3.49% over one year, compared with 2.52% over three years and 2.12% over five years. The recent pace is faster than the longer measured rates, which describes acceleration in the observed series rather than a projection.","title":"Recent acceleration within a stable recorded path"},{"body":"ZORI is an observed asking-rent index, while the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,364 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD's FY2026 middle bedroom standard is $1,709 and is administrative rather than market asking rent. Different timing, household universe, utility treatment, and intended use mean these figures frame separate questions rather than provide a single rent quote.","title":"Asking rent, gross rent, and HUD standards are distinct"},{"body":"At a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic screen, the current index corresponds to $60,760 of annual income, below the ZCTA's $70,326 median household income. Separately, 41.08% of renter households in the ACS burden universe report gross-rent burden at or above that threshold. Neither the area-level screen nor the burden statistic establishes affordability, eligibility, or rent for an individual available unit.","title":"Area income screen and reported burden differ"},{"body":"Renters comprise 76.44% of occupied units, and the ZCTA vacancy rate is 5.91%. Large multifamily structures account for 7,752 units in the recorded stock. These survey measures help describe housing composition, but they do not identify current vacancies, quoted rents, concessions, utility obligations, or the availability of any specific apartment. Property-level listing verification remains separate from ZIP-level evidence.","title":"Stock measures are not listing measures"}],"risks":["The Zillow index is blended across rental types and measures a typical asking-rent level. It cannot identify the actual advertised price, concessions, utility billing, condition, or lease terms of a particular unit.","The ACS matched ZCTA result is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes, not a contemporaneous catalog of listings. Its gross-rent concept includes selected utilities and carries survey uncertainty.","HUD FMR/SAFMR figures are administrative, bedroom-specific standards. The modelled bedroom values merely scale the ZIP index through that ladder, so they may not reproduce observed rents for available units.","Historical stability and drawdown describe prior index behavior only. They neither predict future asking rents nor establish a property's future occupancy, leasing pace, renewal outcome, or investment performance."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI and ACS do not sample the same thing. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Different timing, housing universe, and utility treatment make the numerical gap descriptive rather than a contradiction.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts begin with ZIP ZORI and apply the local HUD bedroom ladder to allocate that ZIP-wide index across bedroom categories. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not an asking-rent observation. Consequently, the modelled estimates provide a consistent scaling framework but cannot confirm an apartment's advertised rent, exact utility treatment, or lease package.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual measured rents for each unit type?"},{"a":"The same-month history records positive one-, three-, and five-year annualized changes, with the short window faster than the longer windows. Low annualized monthly-return variability and a limited recorded drawdown make the prior series comparatively stable, but they characterize only past observations. They do not predict future rent levels or justify investment conclusions.","q":"What does the rent history say about the current snapshot?"},{"a":"Match the property's advertised monthly amount to the relevant bedroom category, then verify utility inclusions, concessions, fees, lease term, availability date, and whether the listed unit is actually offered. Those checks matter because ZIP indices, ACS medians, HUD standards, and vacancy totals each use broader or different evidence universes than an individual listing.","q":"What needs verification before comparing a specific listing with this ZIP evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1310.873341},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1340.76215},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1323.034701},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1330.662576},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1319.973472},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1332.879416},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1345.080226},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1350.407403},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1349.363119},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1337.82793},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1343.511851},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1347.331165},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1360.351371},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1348.633785},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1366.736933},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1367.762563},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1380.583185},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1378.95065},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1377.998868},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1371.37582},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1372.897172},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1374.799907},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1390.200713},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1392.60422},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1399.802473},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1400.692221},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1406.822689},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1401.730706},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1395.082325},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1388.544806},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1386.479355},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1384.699111},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1372.289884},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1361.185415},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1350.11482},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1344.806492},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1345.073414},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1340.048354},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1350.958222},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1353.418372},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1361.198189},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1367.976101},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1371.656062},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1371.462052},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1377.678798},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1381.294204},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1391.915962},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1388.743808},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1392.058805},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1395.600266},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1399.234586},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1408.259562},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1412.491421},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1411.402578},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1410.06573},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1413.105018},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1415.383544},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1418.581255},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1409.732845},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1417.609333},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1414.888051},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1419.79814},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1414.161503},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1411.821933},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1407.878695},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1410.234555},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1414.737127},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1414.222493},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1413.637406},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1416.77118},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1426.232357},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1431.021995},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1431.468091},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1438.402392},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1444.661081},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1445.294323},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1440.39329},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1436.25598},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1434.382801},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1437.237167},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1441.218923},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1440.6505},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1440.833574},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1441.749059},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1442.567847},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1440.756599},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1442.752868},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1449.582917},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1459.417351},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1468.15878},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1474.106773},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1478.140591},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1481.344407},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1486.295991},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1490.017485},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1492.838509},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1500.089142},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1504.976238},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1509.622883},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1512.494342},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1516.251324},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1519.448271}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":102,"firstPeriod":"2018-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":102,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1468.15878,"endRent":1519.448271,"change":0.03493456681844731,"cagr":0.03493456681844731},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1410.234555,"endRent":1519.448271,"change":0.07744365333609338,"cagr":0.025175430083798744},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1367.976101,"endRent":1519.448271,"change":0.11072720487534315,"cagr":0.021225103123299505}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04746464179324883,"annualizedVolatility":0.01765481315226332,"consecutiveReturnCount":101}}