ZIP 55411 opens with a rent-versus-income tension. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP asking-rent index is $1,758, an observed typical asking-rent index blended across rental types, and it is 6.02% above the same month a year earlier. Applying a 30% housing-cost share to that monthly index produces a $70,320 required annual income, above the matched ACS median household income of $60,225. That screen is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Those figures cannot be substituted for the ACS housing measure. The ACS 2024 five-year survey for occupied renter homes reports a median gross rent of $1,226, which includes selected utilities; the Zillow index is 43.39% higher on this comparison. Zillow ZORI is asking-rent evidence rather than a survey of occupied homes. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its two-bedroom value is $1,709. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,278 for a studio, $1,445 for one bedroom, $1,758 for two, $2,327 for three, and $2,604 for four.
Backward-looking Zillow history through its stated endpoint shows the recent rise confirms, rather than breaks, the longer rent path: exact same-month annualized changes were 6.02% over 1 year, 5.29% over 3 years, and 5.40% over 5 years. Annualized monthly-return volatility was 3.01%, maximum drawdown was -2.89%, and coverage was 98.48%. The modestly faster recent pace does not make it a forecast. Rather, the variability and drawdown argue against treating one current reading as a precise permanent level. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 202 for momentum, 1,636 for stability, and 385 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher, and these are descriptive ranks, not investment signals.
The ACS ZCTA supplies the household and stock backdrop, not a listing ledger. Its vacancy rate is 10.64%, and its housing stock includes 6,884 single-family units. Renter-occupied households account for a 47.28% renter share. Among surveyed renters, 62.21% report spending the burden threshold or more of household income on rent, a signal that sits alongside the current asking-rent screen rather than proving what any household pays. The ZCTA also classifies vacant-for-rent homes, but that classification neither confirms a particular unit’s availability nor specifies its condition, asking price, lease terms, utilities, or timing. These survey-area figures describe a distributed stock and population, not a property.
Wider geographies add comparison only. In Minneapolis city context, the asking-rent index was $1,686.18; in Hennepin County context, the asking-rent index was $1,766; and in the Minneapolis–St. Paul–Bloomington, MN–WI metro context, the asking-rent index was $1,727. The ZIP index therefore sits above the named city and metro contexts but just below the named county context. The ZIP’s renter share, vacancy rate, income and burden measures should likewise be read as ZIP/ZCTA evidence rather than silently replaced with city, county, or metro values. Wider-area figures establish scale, but they are not ZIP rental listings or direct evidence about an individual address.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is a separate for-sale record, not rental transactions. At its stated endpoint, the ZIP median sold price was $241,945, down 3.22% year over year. It recorded 81 homes sold with a median 33 days on market, inventory of 83 homes, and 3.1 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 98.62%, while 36.74% of homes sold above list. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals only. Their softer price direction contrasts with the rising asking-rent index and its positive multi-year history, challenging any one-direction reading of the ZIP rather than establishing a causal link between resale activity and rents.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals an 8.72% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or a measure of a specific building’s economics. The ratio mechanically puts an asking-rent index beside a resale median; it does not attach operating costs, financing, taxes, vacancy experience, lease collections, or property characteristics to either side. The rent/history screen and the resale screen therefore remain deliberately separate: rising historical asking-rent measurements coexist with a year-over-year decline in direct resale price, while the ACS income and burden evidence keeps the affordability tension visible. None of these backward-looking measurements is a forecast or investment recommendation.
Limits are consequential here. ZORI is a blended ZIP index, ACS is a matched-ZCTA five-year survey, HUD is an administrative ladder, history measures completed intervals, and Redfin records rolling resale outcomes; none supplies a lease quote or property financial statement. Concrete property-level checks are the advertised rent and availability date, bedroom count and floor plan, included utilities and recurring fees, lease length and concessions, and whether the address is within the relevant ZIP market versus the ZCTA survey area. For the resale comparison, property type, condition, sale date, list price, and match to the direct ZIP observation also matter. The operative question is: how do those verified unit facts alter the gap between this asking-rent screen and the household or resale evidence?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 typical asking-rent index is $1,758, rising 6.02% from the same month a year earlier. The arithmetic 30% screen translates that monthly figure to $70,320 of annual income, above the matched ACS median household income of $60,225. This is a budget comparison, not a determination of rent eligibility, actual household expenses, or lease affordability.","title":"Asking-rent pressure exceeds the household-income screen"},{"body":"ZORI and ACS median gross rent should not be treated as competing rent quotes. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, while ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD’s bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard. The bedroom ladder uses HUD proportions to create modelled ZIP estimates, never observed bedroom rents.","title":"The rent sources answer different questions"},{"body":"Same-month Zillow history reports 6.02% annualized change over one year, 5.29% over three years, and 5.40% over five years. The recent pace confirms the broader upward path, but 3.01% annualized monthly-return variability and a -2.89% maximum drawdown limit confidence in a single snapshot. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts, and the national ranks are descriptive discovery tools.","title":"Recent growth follows the longer historical path"},{"body":"Direct rolling-three-month Redfin resale evidence places median sold price at $241,945, down 3.22% year over year, with 81 homes sold and 3.1 months of supply. This is not rental evidence. The contrast between rising asking-rent history and lower resale price challenges a simple one-direction market reading; the 8.72% rent-price calculation remains only a cross-source screening ratio.","title":"Resale evidence is a separate liquidity check"}],"risks":["Zillow’s index blends rental types and reflects typical observed asking rents, not a lease quote for a particular vacant unit; advertised price, utilities, fees, concessions and term can differ.","The ACS matched ZCTA is statistical rather than postal, uses a five-year survey, and reports area-level occupied-renter conditions; it cannot establish any tenant’s income, utilities, burden, or current vacancy.","The historical series has high stated coverage but still describes past index movements, and its volatility and drawdown show that trend metrics do not fix a stable future rent level.","Redfin figures are rolling ZIP resale observations. A median sale price, marketing time, supply reading, or sale-to-list result does not identify rental demand, unit-level operating costs, or transaction economics."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow measures a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types at the ZIP market level. ACS measures median gross rent among occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA over five years and includes selected utilities. HUD instead publishes a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Timing, population, utility treatment, and purpose differ, so the values are complementary rather than interchangeable.","q":"Why does ACS gross rent differ from the Zillow asking-rent index?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates. They start with the ZIP ZORI and apply the proportions in the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. That creates a consistent illustrative scaling framework, but it does not observe advertised listings, executed leases, utility packages, unit quality, concessions, or supply for an individual bedroom category.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for available apartments?"},{"a":"The history uses exact same-month comparisons to reduce seasonal mismatch and reports its coverage, annualized monthly-return variability, and maximum drawdown. Recent growth is above the three- and five-year rates, so it confirms rather than reverses the longer path. Yet the measures end at the stated date and are explicitly backward-looking; they do not predict future asking rents or property outcomes.","q":"What does the historical rent series say about the current reading?"},{"a":"Redfin directly observes a rolling three-month ZIP resale market and supplies sold-price, sales-volume, marketing-time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list information. It does not observe rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure mechanically joins different sources for screening only, without expenses, financing, property-specific condition, rent collections, or a relationship that would make it a cap rate or return.","q":"What can the Redfin resale observation establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1357.210005},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1355.569515},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1330.368544},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1327.408102},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1322.081685},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1351.717935},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1372.420376},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1335.222598},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1332.808611},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1342.406108},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1368.371494},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1376.096491},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1373.128452},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1399.462027},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1417.460527},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1439.711253},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1435.10942},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1436.385835},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1448.494916},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1465.207002},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1451.757436},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1447.003309},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1447.724689},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1474.752274},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1491.918145},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1493.298087},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1502.827052},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1503.26418},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1505.990934},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1506.848719},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1513.390678},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1525.528317},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1547.767082},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1579.155619},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1574.85693},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1575.288539},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1555.609657},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1589.582652},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1586.940835},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1600.341643},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1614.45255},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1617.130985},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1630.071336},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1612.115229},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1626.21445},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1635.96754},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1650.822796},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1643.249201},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1647.419124},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1627.848504},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1643.718488},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1645.623089},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1658.134842},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1671.069649},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1671.439377},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1693.216726},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1690.507331},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1684.814979},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1691.338444},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1707.82679},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1728.19972},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1742.779781},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1747.061623},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1756.477744},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1757.905983}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":0.9848484848484849,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1658.134842,"endRent":1757.905983,"change":0.06017070413866876,"cagr":0.06017070413866876},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1505.990934,"endRent":1757.905983,"change":0.16727527590813507,"cagr":0.052909624683516565},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1351.717935,"endRent":1757.905983,"change":0.3004976389545355,"cagr":0.053954624130511775}},"maxDrawdown":-0.028862705401861533,"annualizedVolatility":0.030071257587314725,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}