At $1,529 in June 2026, Zillow ZORI sets the current ZIP-level asking-rent benchmark for 55414. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quoted lease for every available home. The index rose from the matching month a year earlier. That positive movement is a current market-level signal, but not a household’s rent or a property-level quote. It anchors the comparisons below without merging their different evidence universes.
At the stated history endpoint, exact same-month ZORI changes annualized to 1.50% over one year, 2.39% over three years, and 2.42% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path, but at a slower pace than the longer windows rather than accelerating it. Coverage is 100%, and annualized monthly-return volatility was 2.97%, while maximum drawdown was -3.80%. Those are backward-looking measurements: the observed variability and decline limit the confidence a reader should place in one current rent snapshot as a durable level. On transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum was 1,550th, stability was 1,581st, and the balanced measure was 1,703rd; lower ranks are higher. These rankings are retrospective discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,425 median gross rent. It is a survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike ZORI’s asking-rent construction. The applicable FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,709, and HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The difference between the ACS survey, the HUD standard, and the Zillow index is one of population and purpose, not a contradiction to reconcile. The local HUD ladder scales ZIP ZORI into modelled estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,111 for a studio, $1,257 for one bedroom, $1,529 for two, $2,024 for three, and $2,264 for four. This is a size-comparison tool, not evidence of an advertised unit’s rent.
The affordability tension appears when the ZIP index is compared with household figures without turning either into an applicant rule. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the index requires $61,160 in annual income. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $51,966, and using that median as the denominator gives a 35.31% ZIP-level asking-rent-to-income calculation. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS reports 7,006 of 12,369 renter households as paying at or above the burden threshold, or 56.64%. This group-level survey result does not prove the burden of any particular current unit or household.
Housing composition and vacancy need the same caution about scope. The matched ZCTA has 16,410 housing units and a reported 11.18% vacancy rate. Its renter share is 84.86%, and the stock contains 9,445 large-multifamily units versus 2,938 single-family units. Vacancy categories list 1,115 units for rent and 165 seasonal units. Those area-wide survey categories do not establish a unit’s current availability, condition, concession terms, utility treatment, or asking rent. The renter-heavy composition gives useful context for interpreting the burden statistic, without showing that any individual renter faces the reported result.
The current ZIP index sits below the surrounding rent contexts, but that comparison must retain the broader scopes. For wider context only, the City of Minneapolis context rent is $1,686; Hennepin County context rent is $1,766; and the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI metro context rent is $1,727. Each is higher than current ZIP ZORI. These city, county, and metro readings are wider-context values, not substitutes for the ZIP-level Zillow index, the ACS ZCTA survey, HUD standards, or property-level evidence. They show relative levels only and provide no evidence about why rent, burden, or vacancies differ.
Several limits govern a property-level reading. Zillow tracks a blended typical asking-rent index; ACS has survey timing and sampling uncertainty; and HUD bedroom standards serve administration rather than listing measurement. The ZCTA match remains statistical rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. A property-level record can verify the current advertised price, physical bedroom count, included and separately billed utilities, lease length, concessions, fees, availability date, and whether the address is within the relevant geography. It can also show whether a unit’s terms diverge from the modelled ladder or gross-rent survey. The decisive question is: do the specific property terms align with the relevant measure, rather than merely sitting near an area-level number?
","findings":[{"body":"At the history endpoint, the one-year same-month gain is positive, but it trails the annualized gains over the three- and five-year windows. Full coverage supports a continuous retrospective series, while the reported volatility and maximum drawdown show that the current index should not be read as a permanent level. The ranks are comparative discovery signals rather than forecasts.","title":"A positive but slower same-month trend"},{"body":"ZORI measures blended observed asking rent at ZIP scope. The matched ACS ZCTA measure is a survey median for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard organized by bedroom count. The gap among them is expected from different populations and purposes, so none should be substituted mechanically for another or for a specific listing.","title":"Separate sources answer separate rent questions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom values are modelled by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder; they are not observed bedroom rents. The required-income result merely applies the stated rent-to-income arithmetic. Median income and rent-burden statistics are area-wide survey summaries, so they flag a comparison tension without determining an applicant’s eligibility or the payment burden attached to one unit.","title":"Bedroom ladder and income screen are models"},{"body":"The ZCTA’s renter concentration, housing mix, and vacancy categories help frame the area-level rental evidence. A classification of units as vacant for rent does not demonstrate that a particular address is available, affordable, or offered on comparable terms. The city, county, and metro figures are useful wider-context comparisons only; their differing geographies cannot replace ZIP-level or property-specific confirmation.","title":"Survey inventory is not a live listing inventory"}],"risks":["The blended ZIP-level ZORI may differ from a property’s marketed lease price because unit size, utility inclusion, concessions, fees, lease duration, availability timing, and rental mix are not fixed in the index.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS is a multi-year sample of occupied renter homes with sampling uncertainty and selected utility treatment.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom standards, not measured asking rents; scaling them yields a transparent modelled ladder but cannot capture a specific property’s layout, condition, lease terms, or included charges.","Area-wide vacancy and rent-burden results describe survey categories and households in aggregate. They cannot establish current availability, an actual rent, a concession, or affordability outcome for any individual unit."],"qa":[{"a":"They are constructed from different evidence universes. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A difference can therefore reflect timing, population, and measurement design, not a conflict to resolve by choosing one as universally correct.","q":"Why does the Zillow index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The reported studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative standard, and the calculation has no property-level observation of an advertised bedroom rent. A listing can differ because its utilities, terms, timing, and physical characteristics are not represented by that model.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for listings?"},{"a":"It converts the area-level current index into an annual income amount using the stated thirty-percent rent-to-income arithmetic. It does not advise a renter, establish a landlord’s qualification rule, measure a household’s actual income, or determine whether any household will be rent burdened. The separate ACS burden statistic remains a group-level survey result.","q":"What does the required-income screen establish?"},{"a":"The history documents past index movements, including a positive longer path, recent moderation, variability, drawdown, coverage, and comparative discovery ranks. It does not forecast rent. Vacancy categories summarize ZCTA survey inventory and do not confirm that a unit is listed now. A property-level record is needed to verify advertised price, bedroom count, utility terms, fees, concessions, lease duration, availability date, and relevant geography.","q":"How should the history and vacancy data shape a property-level reading?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP 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