The five-digit label 55418 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. At the stated Zillow endpoint, ZIP ZORI was $1,709, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, after a 2.97% year-over-year increase. That current asking-rent index sits above the $1,425 ACS median gross rent. The ACS figure instead comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so the difference is a source-universe contrast rather than proof that any currently advertised home costs more than any surveyed renter home.
The backward-looking Zillow history shows growth that has slowed rather than reversed. Exact same-month changes were 2.97% over 1 year, 4.28% over 3 years, and 4.14% over 5 years, meaning the latest advance confirms the longer positive path but trails its multi-year pace. The record contains 66 monthly observations and 65 consecutive monthly returns with 100% stated coverage. Monthly changes have shown 2.36% annualized variability, which supports somewhat more confidence in the current index than a highly erratic series would, while still leaving room for month-to-month noise. Its worst observed peak-to-trough decline was 1.19%. Transparent national discovery ranks were 745 for momentum, 482 for stability, and 254 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher; these are descriptive discovery tools, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The affordability screen presents a separate tension. Applying the 30% gross-income arithmetic to the current ZORI produces required annual income of $68,360, below the ZIP’s $99,397 median household income. That comparison is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a statement about renter income. ACS also reports that 39.6% of the 1,889 burdened renter households among 4,772 renter households paid at least that share of income toward gross rent. Because ACS burden is survey-based and gross rent includes selected utilities, it cannot establish the burden, lease cost, or utility treatment of a particular available home.
The supplied HUD ladder provides a bedroom-size framework, but it does not measure observed bedroom asking rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,242 for a studio, $1,405 for one bedroom, $1,709 for two bedrooms, $2,262 for three bedrooms, and $2,531 for four bedrooms. HUD Fair Market Rent or Small Area Fair Market Rent is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The two-bedroom alignment with ZORI is a model calibration result, not confirmation that all two-bedroom listings transact or advertise at that amount.
Housing composition adds useful scale without demonstrating current unit availability. The matched ZCTA reports 15,169 housing units, 14,148 occupied units, and 1,021 vacant units, for a 6.7% vacancy rate. Of the vacant units, 346 were classified as for rent; that classification does not prove they were immediately rentable, comparable with a searched home, or offered at the ZORI level. Renters occupied 33.7% of housing units. The structure counts include 9,933 single-family units and 1,780 units in large multifamily structures, indicating that the stock spans more than one building form without revealing the condition, lease terms, or bedroom mix of currently marketed inventory.
Wider-area context points in different directions and must remain wider-area context: Minneapolis city context rent was $1,686, Hennepin County context rent was $1,766, and Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI metro context rent was $1,727. Thus the ZIP index is above the city comparison while below the county and metro comparisons. Those city, county, and metro figures are not ZIP observations, bedroom-specific comparables, or substitutes for direct listing review. They mainly frame the ZIP’s current asking-rent level within separately scoped geographies.
Direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale evidence creates the clearest counterweight to the rent series. The median sold price was $369,916, down 4.08% year over year, yet 135 homes sold with a median 14 days on market. Inventory stood at 76 homes and months of supply at 1.7. Sale-to-list averaged 103.26%, 55.78% of sales closed above list, and 68.16% went off market within a fortnight. These are for-sale market observations, not rental transactions or rental comps. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is a 5.54% cross-source screening ratio only. The resale price decline challenges a simple reading of uninterrupted strength, while quick marketing and above-list outcomes align more closely with the rent history’s continued, if slower, upward direction.
The evidence should be read as a set of non-interchangeable measurements: ZORI is an asking-rent index, ACS is a surveyed occupied-home record, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin describes resale activity. Neither the history nor the resale block establishes future rent, vacancy, sale price, operating costs, or property economics. A property-level decision check should verify the actual asking rent, bedroom count, utility inclusions, concessions, lease duration, availability date, condition, and comparable closed sales; it should also distinguish advertised inventory from occupied survey stock. The central unresolved question is whether a specific home’s documented terms resemble the relevant source universe closely enough for these ZIP-level screens to be useful.
","findings":[{"body":"The latest Zillow asking-rent index increase is smaller than the exact same-month three- and five-year growth rates. That pattern supports a stable-growth reading rather than a reversal, but it also means the current annual change should not be treated as the ZIP’s longer-run pace. Full historical coverage and a shallow observed drawdown improve continuity, while monthly variation still limits precision around one rent snapshot.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has decelerated"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen based on current ZORI falls below area median household income, while the ACS survey reports a substantial share of renter households spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. These measurements answer different questions. Median household income is not applicant income, and ACS burden cannot determine the finances or rent burden associated with a particular vacant unit.","title":"Affordability indicators do not tell one uniform story"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom ladder is produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD schedule. It is useful for comparing relative bedroom size assumptions, but it should not be read as a set of measured asking rents. HUD is an administrative benchmark, while Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index; the matching two-bedroom figure does not eliminate those scope differences.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled through HUD, not observed listings"},{"body":"The Redfin rolling-three-month ZIP observation combines a year-over-year median sold-price decline with short marketing time, above-list sales, and limited months of supply. This tension prevents a one-direction interpretation of the for-sale market. It also cannot validate rental economics because resale activity, asking rents, operating expenses, and lease availability are separate evidence universes.","title":"Resale evidence is tight on marketing signals but softer on price"}],"risks":["The Zillow figure is a blended ZIP asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match a specific property’s condition, utilities, bedroom configuration, concessions, availability date, or signed lease amount.","ACS estimates describe surveyed occupied renter homes over a five-year period and carry sampling uncertainty; they are not real-time advertised-rent, vacancy, household-income, or rent-burden records for a specific available unit.","The HUD-derived bedroom ladder is an administrative scaling input rather than measured listing evidence. A modelled estimate may differ materially from local advertisements because unit features and utility treatment are unobserved.","Redfin’s ZIP resale measures describe homes sold and marketed in the for-sale market. They do not establish rental demand, landlord expenses, financing terms, property-level cash flow, or future pricing."],"qa":[{"a":"They cover different populations and measurement methods. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types in the ZIP market. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The numerical gap is therefore a comparison across source universes, not evidence of an error or a unit-level rent premium.","q":"Why does Zillow asking rent differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI using the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD’s schedule is an administrative standard, not an asking-rent survey. The estimates can organize a size-based screen, but listing-level verification is necessary for actual bedrooms, utilities, condition, fees, concessions, and availability.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for available apartments or houses?"},{"a":"It is a mechanical screen that divides annualized current asking rent by the 30% income share. It is not advice, a lease approval standard, or a claim that any household can or cannot afford a home. Area median household income is also not renter-specific income, and the ACS burden statistic cannot determine the circumstances of an individual applicant.","q":"What does the required-income calculation mean?"},{"a":"Use the Redfin block only to describe the ZIP’s direct rolling-three-month for-sale market: sales prices, pace, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is not rental evidence. The annualized ZORI-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio; it omits operating costs, taxes, financing, unit condition, and every other property-specific economic input.","q":"How should the resale data be used alongside the rental data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1357.249681},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1368.28325},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1367.193906},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1379.26225},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1393.435329},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1395.246763},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1405.864374},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1393.093102},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1393.104063},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1393.413453},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1422.962706},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1411.353289},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1431.415328},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1425.129195},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1441.956495},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1436.434982},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1438.960719},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1452.544601},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1459.172697},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1471.029095},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1480.010525},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1480.404848},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1472.434042},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1486.23597},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1486.991436},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1489.488543},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1485.5577},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1492.818307},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1507.852716},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1507.604481},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1508.99426},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1531.795007},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1538.910362},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1561.321092},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1555.022191},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1555.516396},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1552.796387},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1570.037878},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1585.857839},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1590.859886},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1585.929868},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1590.363457},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1601.022935},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1601.894197},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1608.339119},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1607.587062},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1595.782368},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1592.905679},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1599.942211},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1629.925984},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1626.700954},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1634.9636},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1636.698625},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1660.087008},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1665.429259},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1666.722315},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1671.44475},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1675.405675},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1702.767253},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1716.120869},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1724.472952},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1703.893122},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1710.759793},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1711.727277},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1720.303658},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1709.362434}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1660.087008,"endRent":1709.362434,"change":0.029682435777486527,"cagr":0.029682435777486527},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1507.604481,"endRent":1709.362434,"change":0.13382684619388563,"cagr":0.04275491428771949},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1395.246763,"endRent":1709.362434,"change":0.2251327000570147,"cagr":0.041445688464385455}},"maxDrawdown":-0.011933982482086547,"annualizedVolatility":0.02364088847832615,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}