At June 2026, ZIP 55902’s Zillow ZORI was $1,827 per month, up 4.87% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is Zillow’s ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types; it is not a quote for every available home. The annualized ZORI divided by the ZIP’s median sold price was 3.69%, a cross-source screening ratio only. Its arithmetic pairs rental and resale sources but is neither a cap rate, a net return, an expected return, nor a property yield. The central tension is therefore an advancing asking-rent reading alongside a resale-price denominator that must be examined separately, rather than translated into property economics.
The direct ZORI history through that endpoint places the current move in a longer path rather than a forecast. Exact same-month annualized changes were 4.87% over one year, 3.59% over three years and 4.43% over five years. Thus the latest direction confirms the longer upward path and is running faster than both multiyear measures, rather than breaking from it. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.14%, and the largest historical drawdown was 4.57%. The history had 100% coverage across 67 monthly observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 542 for momentum, 1,835 for stability and 813 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks stronger. The mixed history label fits: the complete record supports description, while variability and drawdown limit confidence placed in one current snapshot or any extrapolation.
For this report, the five-digit 55902 label functions as Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and as the matched Census ZCTA label. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a median gross rent of $1,703, putting the Zillow asking index 7.28% above that survey median. ACS median gross rent represents occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is observed asking rent across rental types, so the difference is not a direct pricing gap for a unit. HUD’s FY 2026 FMR/SAFMR is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its two-bedroom figure is $1,214. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,492 for a studio, $1,581 for one bedroom, $1,827 for two bedrooms, $2,502 for three bedrooms and $3,038 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The ACS ZCTA median household income was $120,611, an all-household survey statistic rather than a renter-income measure. Applying the stated 30% screen arithmetically to annualized ZORI gives required income of $73,080. This is a calculation, not affordability advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The supplied asking-rent-to-income comparison is 18.18%, but it combines Zillow’s current asking-rent index with ACS household income and cannot identify a household’s ability to pay. Separately, ACS reports that 48.37% of occupied renter homes paid at or above the threshold of income toward gross rent. That burden result is an aggregate survey measure, not proof that any particular available unit is affordable or burdensome.
Stock data frame the rental evidence but do not turn vacancy into availability. In the matched ACS ZCTA, 12,197 housing units included 859 vacant units, a 7.04% vacancy rate, and occupied homes had a 27.59% renter share. The survey classified 342 units as vacant for rent. The structure mix was led by single-family homes, with large multifamily buildings also represented, so the ZIPwide blended ZORI should not be read as a unit-type quote. These are ACS five-year inventory categories, not a count of currently rentable, suitably priced homes; similarly, vacancy does not prove the condition, terms, or availability of a particular unit.
Broader values supply context only. For Zillow asking-rent context, the City of Rochester, MN value was $1,702.28, the Olmsted County context value was $1,702, and the Rochester, MN metro context value was $1,695; each is a wider geographic context rather than a substitute for the direct ZIP index. The ZIP figure sits above all three, but this comparison does not make city, county, or metro listings ZIP comparables. Their ACS renter-share, vacancy, gross-rent and income statistics likewise are context with their own survey universe, not evidence that the ZIP’s renter share, utilities, or available homes have the same characteristics.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 30, 2026 describes a separate for-sale market, not rental transactions. Its median sold price was $594,816, up 12.23% year over year, while 134 homes sold with a median 23 days on market. For-sale inventory was 131 homes, equal to three months of supply; active listings and inventory were both higher than a year earlier. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.26%, and 28.49% of sales closed above list price. These liquidity and pricing signals cannot be treated as rental comps or property economics. The resale price increase confirms an upward direction also seen in ZORI history, but its much faster pace, the expanding listing measures and the distinct 3.69% screen challenge a one-source reading of rent, affordability, or market tightness.
Several limits remain material. Zillow’s index is a blended asking-rent measure, ACS is a five-year occupied-home survey with supplied margins of error, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin aggregates completed resale activity; none substitutes for unit-level facts. Concrete property-level checks include the advertised base rent, bedroom configuration, billed utilities and their treatment in gross rent, required fees, lease term, current availability, and whether the address belongs in the ZIP. Where rent is considered alongside resale evidence, verify that any sale comparison reflects the relevant property type, timing, condition, list price and closing status. The unresolved question is whether a specific listing’s all-in monthly obligation and relevant resale comparables can be verified without treating these separate aggregates as facts about that unit?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI of $1,827 was 4.87% above the prior same month. The one-year result exceeded the three-year and five-year annualized changes, so the recent measurement confirms rather than breaks the longer positive path. Full historical coverage and 67 observations help describe that path, but 3.14% annualized variability and a 4.57% drawdown limit snapshot certainty and do not forecast future rent.","title":"The rent path is upward, but snapshot certainty is limited"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index. The matched ACS ZCTA is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities; its boundaries are statistical rather than USPS delivery boundaries. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard. The bedroom figures in this report scale ZORI by the HUD ladder and are modelled estimates, never observed bedroom-rent measurements.","title":"Three rent benchmarks answer different questions"},{"body":"The stated income screen annualizes the ZIP asking index and divides by 30%; it is arithmetic, not advice or a qualification rule. ACS burden records are survey-based shares of occupied renter homes, and ACS vacancy counts are categories measured over a multi-year period. Neither a burden share nor a for-rent vacancy count establishes the payment burden, condition, availability, or lease terms of a particular unit.","title":"Affordability and vacancy are aggregate screens"},{"body":"Redfin supplies direct ZIP resale evidence over rolling three months, including price, sales volume, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It does not report rental deals or a property’s income and costs. The annualized ZORI-to-sale-price figure can compare two sources at a broad screening level, but it cannot be relabeled as a property yield, cap rate, net return, or expected return.","title":"Resale evidence is a separate liquidity record"}],"risks":["The current rent figure is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, while ACS, HUD, and Redfin reflect different populations, dates, and transaction types; treating them as interchangeable could create false precision for a specific home.","ACS is a five-year survey with supplied margins of error, so its income, gross-rent, burden, vacancy, and structure measures may not describe a current listing, tenant, or lease.","The bedroom ladder is scaled from ZIP ZORI using HUD standards. It can organize comparisons, but it is not measured studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, or four-bedroom asking-rent evidence.","Redfin’s rolling resale statistics describe completed for-sale activity. Sale price, supply, days on market, and sale-to-list signals cannot establish current rental availability, property-level costs, or economics for a property."],"qa":[{"a":"It annualizes the direct ZIP ZORI and divides it by Redfin’s direct ZIP median sold price for the reported period. This construction is useful only as a cross-source screen. It does not match a rental listing to a sold home, report property-level economics, or establish a property return, cap rate, net return, or yield.","q":"What does the 3.69% cross-source screening ratio represent?"},{"a":"The values derive from different evidence universes. ZORI is current typical observed asking rent blended across rental types, while ACS is a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ACS geography is a ZCTA, which is a statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP geography. The difference does not estimate a unit-level rent change.","q":"Why is Zillow’s asking-rent index higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The $73,080 figure is the arithmetic result of applying the stated 30% threshold to annualized ZORI. It is not affordability advice or an applicant qualification rule. The burden share is also different evidence: it is an ACS aggregate measure of occupied renter homes paying gross rent relative to income, not a result for an individual renter or available unit.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine whether a renter can qualify?"},{"a":"Redfin’s price, sales, days-on-market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures describe direct ZIP for-sale activity over a rolling three-month period. The positive resale price change aligns directionally with the positive ZORI history, but the much faster resale change and rising listing measures show why rent history alone cannot characterize resale liquidity, affordability, or property economics.","q":"How should the Redfin resale signals be read beside the rent history?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1410.94626},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1423.065592},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1435.958093},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1437.382478},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1452.580822},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1467.711814},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1470.930643},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1480.856952},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1489.614876},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1518.299604},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1518.041143},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1499.723091},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1512.236862},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1540.316315},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1562.640836},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1554.32617},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1564.902716},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1573.8691},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1584.570559},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1586.417202},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1588.379088},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1607.153095},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1617.915527},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1650.469763},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1607.953376},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1592.300064},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1575.006695},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1607.634458},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1608.828981},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1627.419697},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1643.530722},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1650.427251},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1652.441146},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1633.956539},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1656.222745},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1643.892401},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1666.809986},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1660.505558},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1681.919737},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1689.243818},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1704.859532},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1703.684223},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1707.714034},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1697.909029},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1702.132444},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1700.109837},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1720.600067},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1757.542906},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1772.8478},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1773.926901},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1755.592577},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1751.990294},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1744.671336},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1746.655059},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1742.320595},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1755.852925},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1761.791372},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1779.22298},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1761.606067},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1745.281522},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1743.231776},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1760.802271},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1780.687105},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1787.797238},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1800.778288},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1812.148044},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1827.230037}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1742.320595,"endRent":1827.230037,"change":0.048733535173531184,"cagr":0.048733535173531184},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1643.530722,"endRent":1827.230037,"change":0.11177114765245011,"cagr":0.035949216754508795},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1470.930643,"endRent":1827.230037,"change":0.2422271884099978,"cagr":0.04433589648525915}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04572217540225243,"annualizedVolatility":0.031400355452818836,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}