Resale turnover is the starting tension in 55904: the ZIP’s for-sale indicators are active even though the rental evidence requires careful universe matching. The 55904 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That distinction matters because the rental index, census survey, administrative rent standards, and resale records do not describe the same homes or transactions. The direct ZIP resale observation is useful for market liquidity only. It cannot serve as rental comparable evidence, proof of a property’s economics, or an explanation for the rent pattern.
At the June 2026 endpoint, ZIP Zillow ZORI is $1,706, a 2.46% year-over-year increase. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a census lease record or a bedroom-specific quotation. For wider context only, the City of Rochester asking-rent context is $1,702.28, the Olmsted County asking-rent context is $1,702, and the Rochester, MN metro asking-rent context is $1,695. These city, county, and metro figures frame a broad comparison, but they do not replace the direct ZIP index. The ZIP measure is modestly higher than each surrounding context figure, although that narrow separation does not describe any particular unit.
The direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history shows a 1-year annualized increase of 2.46%, a 3-year annualized increase of 2.34%, and a 5-year annualized increase of 4.32%. Recent direction therefore confirms a longer upward path, but at a slower pace than the longer historical span. The series contains 78 observations and 77 consecutive monthly returns, with 100% stated coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.91% and maximum drawdown was -6.40%; these backward-looking measures mean a current rent snapshot deserves context rather than certainty, even with full sequence coverage. The transparent national discovery ranks are 1,303 for momentum, 1,459 for stability, and 1,366 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher. These are discovery labels, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Bedroom figures should be read as modelled estimates: scaling the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder gives $1,393 for a studio, $1,476 for one bedroom, $1,706 for two bedrooms, $2,337 for three bedrooms, and $2,837 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent measure; it supplies relative bedroom scaling, not observed offers. In contrast, ACS median gross rent is $1,304 in the matched ZCTA’s five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Neither HUD standards nor ACS gross rent can be substituted directly for Zillow’s blended asking-rent index.
The income view creates a separate tension. A 30% required-income screen applied arithmetically to the monthly ZIP index produces $68,240 annually; that rent-to-area-median-income arithmetic is 26.6%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; area-wide median income also is not the income distribution of renters seeking a particular listing. In the ACS renter-home universe, 42.7% of occupied renter homes report gross-rent burdens at or above the screen threshold. The lower index-to-area-income calculation and higher renter-burden share can coexist because their populations and measures differ. Neither result demonstrates that a particular unit is affordable or unaffordable.
ACS describes a housing base of 13,432 units, including 12,487 occupied units and 945 vacant units, for a 7.0% vacancy rate. Renters occupy 35.7% of occupied homes, and the stock is more concentrated in single-family units than in large multifamily buildings. These are ZCTA survey descriptions, not a real-time availability feed: a vacancy category does not establish a ready unit’s location, condition, price, lease terms, or utility charges. Likewise, the burden share is a population-level result and cannot establish the circumstances of any renter or property.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation records a $309,930 median sold price, up 3.31% from a year earlier. It logged 112 homes sold, a 17-day median marketing time, 71 homes of inventory, and 1.9 months of supply. Months of supply relates listed inventory to the contemporaneous sales pace; here it describes the amount of inventory relative to that pace, not how long a specified home will take to sell. The average sale-to-list result was 100.9%, a resale-only signal. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 6.61%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The resale measures support a turnover reading, but sale-price appreciation exceeded the current rent change and does not resolve the separate renter-burden evidence.
Several limits constrain a decision from these aggregates. ZORI is not a live quotation for a named dwelling, HUD standards are not market asking rents, ACS is a survey rather than a listing feed, and Redfin resale records are not rental transactions. Historical changes, variability, drawdown, and discovery ranks are backward-looking measurements rather than forecasts. Property-level review therefore needs the address’s actual delivery ZIP and ZCTA relation, unit type and bedroom count, current advertised rent, utility allocation, lease length, concessions, availability, and included charges. For a purchase context, relevant sold records and property condition must be checked separately from the ZIP screening ratio. Do those itemized terms align with the broad measures without treating any aggregate as proof?
","findings":[{"body":"In Redfin’s direct rolling ZIP resale record, the median sold price was $309,930, homes moved in a median 17 days, and supply was 1.9 months. An average sale-to-list result of 100.9% reinforces the turnover signal. These are for-sale observations only. They neither establish rental transaction prices nor indicate the economics, condition, or availability of a particular property.","title":"Resale turnover belongs to a separate evidence universe"},{"body":"Over matched months, the ZIP index rose at annualized rates of 2.46% for the past year, 2.34% across three years, and 4.32% across five years. The latest pace remains positive but trails the longer span. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.91% and a -6.40% maximum drawdown show that historical progress was not a straight line. These measurements are backward looking, not forecasts.","title":"The asking-rent path is positive but not linear"},{"body":"The HUD-scaled bedroom figures offer a consistent way to express relative unit sizes, but they are modelled estimates rather than observed rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, while matched-ZCTA ACS median gross rent is a five-year occupied-renter survey measure that includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI remains a blended asking-rent index. Comparing their dollar levels without these definitions would mix unlike evidence.","title":"The bedroom ladder is a model, not a set of observed rents"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen is below the area-wide median household income, whereas 42.7% of ACS occupied renter homes report gross-rent burdens of at least 30%. Meanwhile, the ZCTA records a 7.0% vacancy rate, not a live vacancy feed. These are separate population measures that may point in different directions and cannot resolve the affordability, availability, or terms of any actual unit.","title":"Area income arithmetic and renter burden point to different populations"}],"risks":["The Zillow index is a blended asking-rent measure, so a particular advertised unit may differ because of bedroom count, property type, utilities, lease terms, concessions, availability, and timing.","The ACS ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year survey estimates include sampling uncertainty; it can differ from the ZIP market identifier used by Zillow.","Vacant housing and rent burden are aggregate classifications. They do not establish whether any listed unit is habitable, priced at the reported index, available now, or occupied by a household with a known income.","The Redfin screening ratio joins annualized ZORI with a median sold price from a different market universe. It omits property-level expenses and must not be treated as a return measure or forecast."],"qa":[{"a":"They describe different universes. ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent concept includes selected utilities. Different timing, rental mix, occupancy status, and utility treatment mean the gap is not a direct estimate of rent change for the same units.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index above the ACS gross-rent figure?"},{"a":"No. The sequence is created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. It is useful for expressing a consistent modelled ladder, but it is not a measurement of listings. An actual unit can depart from the estimate because its utilities, condition, property type, lease, and current advertised terms are not in the model.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for available units?"},{"a":"Months of supply compares listed inventory with the current pace of sales inside Redfin’s direct rolling ZIP resale observation. The reported 1.9 months describes inventory relative to that sales pace at the observation date. It does not promise a marketing period for a particular house, and it provides no rental transaction comparison.","q":"How should 1.9 months of supply be interpreted?"},{"a":"No. The calculation simply applies the annualized ZIP asking-rent index to the 30% threshold to produce a required-income screen. The burden percentage comes from occupied renter homes in ACS, while the income comparison is area-wide. Neither measure identifies an applicant’s income, total housing costs, eligibility, or the affordability of a given unit.","q":"Does the 30% income screen determine whether a renter can qualify or afford a unit?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1378.272653},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1396.250513},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1387.171597},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1364.295012},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1350.583198},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1326.659418},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1323.643574},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1321.063856},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1335.441431},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1319.706159},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1306.882118},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1318.760828},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1323.631149},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1345.796734},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1354.092806},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1379.500707},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1381.166578},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1380.867907},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1380.088632},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1391.726405},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1393.888999},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1415.07431},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1432.800424},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1450.891891},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1451.758246},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1464.419887},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1480.358701},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1495.035037},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1513.260025},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1536.962981},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1560.749368},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1566.042098},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1566.696622},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1558.490831},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1571.675733},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1587.000335},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1620.449032},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1617.082033},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1599.502264},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1580.182257},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1579.957057},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1592.06504},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1586.054329},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1579.771075},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1578.231155},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1585.458357},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1590.288665},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1578.295065},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1566.212237},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1558.607845},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1573.390507},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1592.960056},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1609.368748},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1610.367336},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1606.82826},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1611.711798},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1617.595042},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1639.552283},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1645.932744},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1665.743919},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1651.925979},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1668.099816},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1666.455998},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1676.038419},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1666.803793},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1665.352797},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1675.931428},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1683.47557},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1689.169832},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1678.899627},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1677.731607},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1674.091785},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1692.631986},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1693.195752},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1698.607006},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1693.618165},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1700.458974},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1706.305956}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":78,"firstPeriod":"2020-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":78,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1665.352797,"endRent":1706.305956,"change":0.024591281243093732,"cagr":0.024591281243093732},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1592.06504,"endRent":1706.305956,"change":0.0717564377897526,"cagr":0.023368473322652683},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1380.867907,"endRent":1706.305956,"change":0.23567645199824305,"cagr":0.04323212971707435}},"maxDrawdown":-0.06400598901695798,"annualizedVolatility":0.029149113041797934,"consecutiveReturnCount":77}}