At ZIP 57110, Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,292. Its annualized value divided by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price is 3.33%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas Redfin records direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale transactions. The difference between rent and resale signals is the central tension in this report: the sources answer distinct questions about market activity, and neither one establishes economics for a specific property.
Rent history presents stable growth with an important pacing caveat. At the stated Zillow history endpoint, direct ZIP ZORI has 100% coverage. Exact same-month annualized changes are 1.46% over 1 year, 0.57% over 3 years, and 4.09% over 5 years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path, while the modest middle-horizon pace differs from the furthest-horizon rate rather than signaling uninterrupted acceleration. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.88% and maximum drawdown is -4.10%. Those measures mean a single current asking-rent reading deserves less confidence than a smooth history would, and are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,948 for momentum, 1,405 for stability, and 1,950 for balanced history, where lower rank is higher.
The five-digit label 57110 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,037 for occupied renter homes; this measure includes selected utilities and is not the current asking-rent index. Fiscal-year 2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR provides a $1,156 two-bedroom administrative standard, not asking rent. Applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $967 for a studio, $1,102 for one bedroom, $1,292 for two, $1,773 for three, and $2,167 for four. These are modelled estimates scaled from ZORI, never measured bedroom rents.
The income and burden readings sharpen another distinction. Applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to current monthly ZORI produces $51,680 in required annual income. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The matched ACS ZCTA reports $88,955 median household income, so annualized ZORI equals 17.4% of that area-wide median. Separately, ACS records 1,381 renter households spending the threshold or more of income on rent, a 42.8% burden share. That survey burden is evidence about a population of occupied renter homes, not proof that any particular unit or prospective household is affordable or unaffordable. It does not reconcile ZORI asks with actual lease payments.
Survey housing counts provide scale but not leasing conditions. The ACS ZCTA has 9,821 housing units, with 367 vacant, for a 3.7% all-housing vacancy rate; it is not a property operating-vacancy rate or evidence that a given unit is available. Stock includes 6,280 single-family units and 2,164 units in large multifamily structures, showing that both categories exist in the ZCTA without identifying their rents, condition, or turnover. Neither structure category supplies a measured unit rent. The count framework cannot establish concessions, tenant burden, or vacancy for an individual building.
Broader rent context is close but must retain its geography. The City of Sioux Falls context rent is $1,327, Minnehaha County context rent is $1,291, and Sioux Falls, SD metro context rent is $1,310; each is wider context rather than a ZIP-level comp. Relative to the ZIP’s current index, the county reading is nearly the same, while city and metro readings are higher. The broader figures are useful scale markers, but they cannot replace observations from the labeled ZIP or support a neighborhood-level conclusion.
Resale liquidity is a direct ZIP for-sale observation, not rental evidence. In Redfin’s rolling-three-month direct ZIP resale record at the stated endpoint, the $465,895 median sold price rose 9.95% year over year, 151 homes sold, and median marketing time was 56 days. Inventory was 171 homes and months of supply were 3.4. In this reporting framework, months of supply expresses listed inventory as months of sales at the measured pace; it does not identify rental vacancy or predict values. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.78%, with 12.26% of sales above list. Rising resale price alongside the restrained rent history and the income screen challenges an assumption that rental and resale trends are moving together, while leaving no causal conclusion.
Important limits remain at the property level. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a rolling resale record; none is an appraisal, lease comp set, or unit-level operating statement. Resolving a particular property would require confirming its address within the relevant market geography, actual bedroom count and condition, current advertised rents, included utilities and concessions, lease terms, HUD program applicability, and comparable sales with sale dates and list terms. The reported burden and vacancy figures cannot establish a tenant’s circumstances or a unit’s availability. Which property-specific facts, if documented, would materially alter the cross-source screen?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current $1,292 asking-rent index sits within a history whose exact same-month annualized changes are 1.46% over one year, 0.57% over three years, and 4.09% over five years. Recent growth is positive, but the middle-horizon result is slower than the long-horizon result. The 2.88% variability and -4.10% drawdown make the history descriptive rather than predictive.","title":"Rent history is positive but paced unevenly"},{"body":"ACS reports $1,037 median gross rent for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, including selected utilities. That differs from Zillow ZORI’s blended current asking-rent index. HUD’s $1,156 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is another distinct universe: a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The reported studio-to-four-bedroom figures are ZORI-scaled modelled estimates and cannot be treated as observed bedroom lease rents.","title":"Asking rent, gross rent, and HUD standards serve different purposes"},{"body":"The $51,680 required-income figure results from annualizing ZORI and applying the 30% screen. It is not an applicant rule. The ACS area-wide median household income is $88,955, while 42.8% of renter households are recorded as rent burdened at the threshold or above. Those measures inform population-level arithmetic and burden context, not the affordability of a particular tenancy.","title":"The income screen and burden rate are population-level measures"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP rolling-three-month resale record shows a $465,895 median sold price, 9.95% annual growth, 151 sales, 56 median days on market, and 3.4 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 98.78%, and 12.26% sold above list. These are for-sale liquidity and pricing signals. They challenge a simple read-through from the more restrained rent history, but do not supply rental transactions or property return.","title":"Resale evidence runs ahead of the rent-history pace"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI and ACS gross rent differ in timing, rental population, and utility treatment. Equating them can overstate or understate a particular property’s advertised rent, lease payment, or tenant cost.","The Census ZCTA is a statistical match, not a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS is a five-year survey with reported sampling uncertainty. Those geographic and survey limits can obscure address-level conditions.","Full rent-history coverage does not erase 2.88% annualized variability or the -4.10% maximum drawdown. A current ZORI observation is backward-looking evidence and may not characterize every rental type.","Redfin inventory, supply, marketing, and sale-to-list signals describe ZIP resale activity rather than rental transactions. Price-screen arithmetic omits expenses, financing, condition, utilities, concessions, and unit-specific lease evidence needed for property economics."],"qa":[{"a":"ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its gross-rent definition includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a contemporaneous typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The differing time windows, sampled population, and cost definitions mean the gap is a source-universe difference, not measured appreciation or a unit-specific price spread.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent lower than ZORI?"},{"a":"They start with the $1,292 ZIP ZORI and apply the relative HUD bedroom standards in the local ladder. This yields a consistent gradient from $967 for a studio to $2,167 for four bedrooms. The approach models levels from the index; it does not observe advertisements, executed leases, utilities, concessions, condition, or floor plan differences.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates derived?"},{"a":"Redfin’s months-of-supply measure expresses the reported ZIP resale inventory as the equivalent number of months of sales at the stated sales pace. It helps describe for-sale availability and liquidity alongside 151 sales and 56 days of marketing. It is not an apartment vacancy rate, a rental availability count, or a forecast of selling conditions.","q":"What does 3.4 months of supply mean in the Redfin record?"},{"a":"The $51,680 figure comes from annualizing current monthly ZORI and dividing by 30%. It is a transparent arithmetic screen for comparing an area-wide rent index with income. It is not lending criteria, a legal eligibility test, housing advice, or a conclusion about whether any individual applicant can pay a lease.","q":"What does the required-income screen mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1020.279497},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1027.800412},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1053.247165},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1046.194198},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1045.609155},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1050.030111},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1057.821901},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1069.522293},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1077.535352},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1090.886548},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1118.403428},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1147.89418},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1167.071163},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1171.615983},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1177.517214},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1198.379712},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1227.412314},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1256.917384},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1275.556261},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1283.875211},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1296.514527},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1296.614371},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1290.024112},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1279.298219},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1275.82036},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1269.571529},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1270.869007},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1280.347869},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1283.382446},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1279.093111},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1270.403441},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1267.68101},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1273.594159},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1281.255211},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1277.853059},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1271.47492},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1270.29304},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1270.686911},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1264.863503},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1252.433743},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1247.911169},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1243.432225},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1251.504313},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1257.032584},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1258.027288},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1252.680159},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1254.550532},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1260.572476},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1261.518438},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1265.167674},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1260.326812},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1259.90741},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1265.244807},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1270.742069},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1273.768876},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1272.071172},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1269.192387},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1272.432769},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1276.089762},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1278.332341},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1281.035114},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1281.64321},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1290.123779},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1296.119621},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1294.99765},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1295.156812},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1292.381258}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1273.768876,"endRent":1292.381258,"change":0.014612055884461572,"cagr":0.014612055884461572},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1270.403441,"endRent":1292.381258,"change":0.017299872064814314,"cagr":0.005733686034126828},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1057.821901,"endRent":1292.381258,"change":0.22173804189368918,"cagr":0.040867909909280575}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04101616269992725,"annualizedVolatility":0.028815560537720653,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}