For ZIP 58103, the decision question is whether a household’s target unit can be evaluated from a typical asking-rent signal while keeping survey and program benchmarks separate. Zillow’s June 2026 Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is $865 per month, 4.0% above a year earlier. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a quote for one listed home. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA used here. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 5-year evidence therefore describes the matched area, not necessarily every postal address carrying this label.
The bedroom pattern is an allocation tool, not observed unit-size pricing. The local FY2026 HUD ladder is used to scale ZIP ZORI into modelled monthly estimates of $599 for a studio, $715 for one bedroom, $865 for two bedrooms, $1,206 for three bedrooms, and $1,447 for four bedrooms. The scaling takes the HUD two-bedroom position of $1,040 as its anchor and follows the local HUD ladder, which runs from $720 for a studio to $1,740 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates derived from two series, never measured bedroom rents; actual listings can differ by utility treatment, condition, term, and other unreported property terms.
Comparable dollar proximity does not make the sources interchangeable. In the matched ACS survey, median gross rent is $857 with a $17 margin of error, so it is close to the June asking-rent index. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, rather than a current asking-rent measure. HUD’s two-bedroom standard is not an observed asking rent either: the ZORI is 16.8% below it. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard. The ACS figure, Zillow index, and HUD benchmark answer different questions, so their closeness or gap should not be treated as a single rent level.
Budget screens and observed burden give a separate household lens. The matched ACS ZCTA reports median household income of $58,801, with a $4,328 margin of error. Annualizing the ZORI produces a $34,600 income figure under a 30% rent-to-income screen, and the annualized asking index equals 17.7% of that area-wide median household income. That calculation is arithmetic only, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a finding about any household’s expenses. Renter-occupied units number 13,760, representing 57.9% of occupied units. Among those renter units, 5,283, or 38.4%, report gross-rent burden at or above the screen threshold in ACS. That is an observed survey distribution, not proof of the burden attached to a particular available unit.
The ACS ZCTA stock measures show 25,180 housing units and 1,404 vacant units, a 5.6% all-housing vacancy rate. Of the vacant inventory, 698 units are designated for rent, compared with 73 for sale and 69 seasonal. These categories describe survey composition rather than live inventory; the for-rent count does not establish advertised availability, rent, bedroom count, or suitability for a particular search. Structure counts also show 9,685 single-family units and 9,603 units in large multifamily structures. The figures identify the composition of the ZCTA housing stock, but do not connect any structure type or vacancy category to the ZORI, to an individual listing, or to a future rent outcome.
Wider geographies place the ZIP signal in context without replacing it. Fargo city context rent is $1,088, with the ZIP ZORI 20.5% lower. Cass County context rent is $1,117, or 22.6% above the ZIP index. Fargo, ND-MN metro context rent is $1,131, placing the ZIP index 23.5% lower, while the metro context’s 7.4% apartment vacancy is a distinct apartment measure rather than the ZCTA’s all-housing vacancy rate. These city, county, and metro comparisons are wider-area context only: their geographic coverage and, in the case of vacancy, definitions differ from the ZIP/ZCTA evidence and cannot identify conditions at a specific property.
The central limitation is that none of these series supplies a current, property-specific rent or guarantees that a ZIP, ZCTA, city, county, or metro observation fits an address. ZORI blends rental types; ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied renter homes; HUD is an administrative benchmark; and the bedroom figures are modelled from ZORI and HUD, not observations. For a property-level check, verify the advertised monthly rent, lease term, bedroom count, whether selected utilities are included, all recurring and one-time charges, occupancy date, and the exact delivery address. Then distinguish the property’s stated rent from gross rent and compare the address geography with the ZIP identifier and ZCTA match before applying the arithmetic screen. These checks resolve facts the aggregate evidence cannot resolve.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI for ZIP 58103 is $865, a 4.0% annual increase, but it is a blended typical asking-rent index across rental types. It is useful as a current ZIP-level signal, not as a promised price for a listed property. The matching ZCTA evidence covers a statistical area rather than an exact USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Current ZIP signal is not a listing quote"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They express a consistent proportional pattern, not measured rents for unit types. The HUD ladder is an administrative standard, while ZORI is an observed asking-rent index; combining them does not create a new observed bedroom-rent series.","title":"Bedroom figures are constructed estimates"},{"body":"ACS reports median gross rent for occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities, unlike ZORI’s asking-rent construct. Its burden results describe respondents’ reported gross-rent shares, while the required-income figure uses a 30% arithmetic screen. Neither measure establishes a particular applicant’s or advertised unit’s actual expense position.","title":"ACS burden and ZORI address different questions"},{"body":"Vacant-for-rent units are a survey category, not a count of live listings, and all-housing vacancy differs from the metro apartment-vacancy context. Fargo city, Cass County, and Fargo, ND-MN metro rents provide geographic comparison only. Their different boundaries and measures cannot be used to infer a unit’s exact rent, availability, or lease terms.","title":"Vacancy and wider rents remain context"}],"risks":["The ZCTA match is statistical, whereas USPS ZIP delivery boundaries can differ; an address bearing 58103 needs direct geographic verification before any area-level rent, income, vacancy, or burden figure is applied.","The bedroom amounts are proportional model outputs based on HUD’s standard ladder and ZIP ZORI. They can diverge from a property’s advertised rent because they are not measured bedroom-specific listings.","ACS gross rent, household income, renter occupancy, and burden are five-year survey estimates, and some supplied ACS fields carry margins of error. Zillow and HUD instead serve distinct asking-rent and administrative purposes.","The vacant-for-rent category and wider city, county, and metro comparisons do not validate live availability, lease cost, unit condition, included utilities, or the actual cost exposure of a specific address."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow’s June 2026 Zillow Observed Rent Index for ZIP 58103: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not the advertised rent of a particular available home, the ACS median gross rent for occupied renter homes, or a HUD Fair Market Rent standard.","q":"What does the $865 ZIP reading represent?"},{"a":"The ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA median gross-rent estimate summarizes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI is an asking-rent index, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Their similar dollar levels do not put them in the same evidence universe or create a property-specific market price.","q":"Why should the ACS figure not be substituted for ZORI?"},{"a":"The ZIP ZORI was proportionally scaled with the local FY2026 HUD bedroom ladder, using the two-bedroom HUD position as the anchor. The resulting studio through four-bedroom values are modelled monthly estimates. They are not measured ZIP rents by bedroom, and no conclusion about a particular listing’s rent or utility package follows.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates made?"},{"a":"They describe aggregate survey conditions only. The burden share reports renter households meeting the gross-rent threshold in the matched ZCTA, while vacant-for-rent units are a survey category rather than verified active listings. Verify the property’s stated rent, included utilities, lease charges, bedroom count, availability date, and exact address separately.","q":"What can burden and vacancy figures tell an address-level search?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":734.530416},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":747.760637},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":753.937148},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":756.550572},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":755.480267},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":763.748971},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":765.914044},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":771.983756},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":775.22322},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":783.897458},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":783.357703},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":792.702218},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":793.591817},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":799.517876},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":804.196546},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":809.66369},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":814.990694},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":812.924558},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":816.605905},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":813.087444},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":816.983932},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":811.354865},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":821.27709},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":817.505099},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":818.697938},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":816.441314},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":822.256626},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":827.104922},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":827.744334},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":832.133192},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":835.995367},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":842.414864},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":845.038935},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":852.945843},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":852.72342},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":857.26058},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":859.740303},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":862.377141},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":860.937585},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":860.107397},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":863.486468},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":865.274356}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":42,"firstPeriod":"2023-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":42,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":832.133192,"endRent":865.274356,"change":0.0398267540804933,"cagr":0.0398267540804933},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":763.748971,"endRent":865.274356,"change":0.13293030675651152,"cagr":0.04247999946493142}},"maxDrawdown":-0.006890058395909726,"annualizedVolatility":0.017833802535838,"consecutiveReturnCount":41}}