At the immediate snapshot, the five-digit label 58801 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match for Williston, North Dakota. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $1,256, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The index is down 2.9% on the exact same-month one-year comparison, even after annualized same-month gains of 6.2% over three years and 8.5% over five years. Thus, the latest decline breaks from the longer positive path rather than confirming it. These readings describe asking-rent index behavior, not a lease quote, renter household spending, or a forecast.
The history is complete enough to reveal instability rather than a clean trend. Zillow history has 100% coverage: 68 observations yield 67 consecutive monthly returns through the stated endpoint. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.6%, and the maximum drawdown is -4.3%, fitting the high-variability classification. This makes the current index useful as a marker but gives less confidence to treating one month as a stable run rate; a small current move needs the longer sequence beside it. Transparent discovery scores are 40.5 for momentum, 20.1 for stability, and 32.3 balanced. Their national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,729, 2,320, and 2,340 respectively, where a lower rank is higher. These backward-looking measurements are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations.
The resale record supplies an opposing market signal, but it must stay in the for-sale universe. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions, reports a $399,810 median sold price, 12.6% year-over-year price change, 110 homes sold, and a 24-day median marketing time. It also records 86 homes of inventory and 2.4 months of supply. The average sale reached 99.7% of list price and 15.0% of sales closed above list. Read strictly as for-sale liquidity and pricing, this evidence challenges the current asking-rent retreat and complements the longer rent appreciation; the reported supply level and near-list execution are direct resale conditions, not rental transactions. The annualized ZORI divided by median sold price is 3.77%, only a cross-source screening ratio—not cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Bedroom figures should not be mistaken for measured rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,094 for a studio, $1,122 for one bedroom, $1,256 for two, $1,657 for three, and $1,833 for four. They are calculations, not observed bedroom rents. HUD’s FY2026 local FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent series; its two-bedroom standard is $1,196. The common two-bedroom result does not turn the index into a two-bedroom measurement: it simply follows the normalization point used in the calculation. The ZIP index is 5.0% above the two-bedroom HUD standard, but the comparison does not measure tenant payments, utilities, concessions, or program eligibility.
Another source gap matters more than a small monthly change. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes gives median gross rent of $1,129, and gross rent includes selected utilities. It is not Zillow’s asking-rent index and cannot be read as a contemporaneous asking quote; however, the lower survey median frames the index against a distinct occupied-home universe. For a mechanical 30% screen, the current monthly index implies $50,240 of annual income. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA median household income is $84,702, with asking rent equal to 17.8% of that income on this broad comparison. ACS also estimates 29.0% of renter households are burdened at or above the same threshold, an area-level condition that cannot prove the burden of any particular household or unit.
Large reported vacancy is relevant but not proof of a lease opportunity. The ACS ZCTA has 17,290 housing units, of which 12,983 are occupied and 4,307 are vacant, a 24.9% total-housing vacancy rate. Renters occupy 49.7% of occupied homes, and 2,224 units are classified vacant for rent; the remaining vacant universe can include categories other than an immediately rentable listing. The housing stock spans single-family and large-multifamily structures, so the aggregate figure does not identify the unit type behind the Zillow index. Census sampling, classification, and the five-year collection window also limit precision. Neither total vacancy nor the for-rent count establishes an individual unit’s availability, condition, effective price, or fit with a household.
For wider context only, the City of Williston scope has an approximately $1,256 Zillow rent index, the Williams County scope is $1,256, and the Williston, ND metro scope is $1,256. These city, county, and metro figures are context rather than substitutes for the ZIP index or the matched ZCTA survey. The city context has a higher renter share and slightly lower total housing vacancy than the ZCTA; the county context has a lower renter share and higher vacancy. The metro’s apartment vacancy is a distinct apartment-market measure, not the ZCTA’s total-housing vacancy, and should not be merged with it. The broad rent-index alignment therefore does not resolve the mismatch between asking rent, occupied-home gross rent, HUD standards, or direct ZIP resale behavior.
Decision use comes from reconciling the contradictory signals rather than translating any one of them into property economics. Confirm that an address uses the intended delivery ZIP and determine whether the relevant Census ZCTA match is appropriate. For a candidate rental, verify the live advertised rent, bedroom count, utilities included, fees, concessions, lease term, availability date, square footage, condition, and any occupancy restrictions; then compare it with like listings rather than the modelled ladder alone. For a sale comparison, inspect property type, condition, transaction timing, and actual list-to-sale details, because Redfin’s aggregation does not supply rental comps or operating costs. Treat ACS margins of error and survey timing, HUD program standards, and ZORI’s blended composition as limits. Which address-level rent quote and resale comparables remain after those checks?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June ZORI is $1,256, down 2.9% on the exact same-month one-year comparison while its annualized three- and five-year changes remain positive. The full series has high monthly-return variability and a negative maximum drawdown. Accordingly, the latest decline breaks from the longer positive path. It is a backward-looking index result, not a rent forecast, lease quote, or investment recommendation.","title":"Recent asking-rent direction breaks from the longer path"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record reports a rising median sold price alongside active transaction and marketing measures. That for-sale evidence challenges the most recent Zillow asking-rent decline, even as it broadly aligns with the longer rent history. It does not measure rental transactions or property income. Annualized ZORI divided by median sale price is only a cross-source screening ratio, never a yield or return.","title":"Resale strength conflicts with the latest rent reading"},{"body":"ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a matched-ZCTA, five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent. The displayed studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling ZORI with HUD, not observed bedroom rents.","title":"The rent sources answer different questions"},{"body":"ACS indicates a substantial total vacancy count and a large vacant-for-rent category, while renters represent nearly half of occupied homes. It also records area-level renter burden at the 30% threshold. These facts describe the ZCTA aggregate and survey period; they cannot establish whether a particular unit is vacant, rentable, competitively priced, in suitable condition, or affordable to a specific applicant.","title":"Vacancy and burden remain aggregate measures"}],"risks":["The ZORI figure is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it can differ materially from any advertised unit’s effective rent after utilities, concessions, fees, lease duration, and condition are considered.","The matched ZCTA is statistical and not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS is a five-year sample of occupied renter homes, with margins of error and utility treatment that can diverge from current asking rents.","Area vacancy categories include units not necessarily available for immediate rental, and renter burden is an area-level survey statistic. Neither observation identifies the condition, effective price, eligibility, or affordability of a particular unit or applicant.","Redfin’s reported homes sold, timing, supply, and sale-to-list metrics are aggregate rolling resale observations. They cannot establish rental demand, operating costs, a property’s price, or a cap rate, yield, net return, or expected return."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rents in the ZIP market at the stated month and blends rental types. ACS median gross rent comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Different timing, universe, and utility treatment mean the two figures answer different questions and should not be converted into one another.","q":"Why can the current asking-rent index exceed ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent, and the resulting calculations are not listings, signed leases, utility-inclusive payments, or samples of measured bedroom rents.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for studio through four-bedroom units?"},{"a":"Redfin provides a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation: sold prices, sale counts, marketing time, inventory, supply, and list-price execution. It is not a rental transaction database or a property operating statement. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is therefore only a cross-source screen, and it must not be interpreted as cap rate, yield, net return, or expected return.","q":"What does the Redfin block say about rentals in this ZIP?"},{"a":"Address-level checking should confirm location, live advertised rent, bedroom configuration, included utilities, fees, concessions, lease term, availability, condition, and other listing details. For resale context, compare property type, condition, transaction timing, and actual list-to-sale facts. These checks are needed because the supplied ZIP, ZCTA, HUD, and resale series use different universes.","q":"What property-level checks are needed before using these aggregate figures?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":818.36832},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":813.607582},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":806.921702},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":818.127751},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":818.738766},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":823.859807},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":818.145062},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":834.826385},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":837.168964},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":847.569246},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":844.285457},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":850.026745},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":865.479837},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":878.597076},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":890.542637},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":881.383442},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":870.946561},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":861.775913},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":872.781046},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":875.738694},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":890.710151},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":889.551823},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":914.777506},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":927.283139},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":945.086393},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":942.170898},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":947.896855},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":958.185333},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":972.530457},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":995.975113},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1020.60222},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1047.413352},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1069.647671},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1089.422223},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1107.99911},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1130.382028},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1136.837459},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1159.418743},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1163.645035},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1185.153707},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1200.218677},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1213.891994},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1216.238711},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1212.10999},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1212.216338},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1217.66687},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1221.126837},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1221.332818},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1232.141005},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1231.352172},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1248.145964},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1248.740977},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1265.49564},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1275.406009},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1283.196095},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1293.015627},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1299.500738},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1305.825817},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1306.2374},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1308.922404},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1308.333136},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1312.174721},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1307.585884},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1304.455808},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1288.918623},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1275.305906},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1265.831882},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1255.76632}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":68,"firstPeriod":"2020-11-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":68,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1293.015627,"endRent":1255.76632,"change":-0.028808087251369296,"cagr":-0.028808087251369296},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1047.413352,"endRent":1255.76632,"change":0.19892143593754752,"cagr":0.0623401000433379},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":834.826385,"endRent":1255.76632,"change":0.5042245220843133,"cagr":0.0850819342047362}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04298848323873494,"annualizedVolatility":0.035891987864242296,"consecutiveReturnCount":67}}