The main tension in ZIP 59102 is between current evidence universes. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,445 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quote for a particular home. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes reports median gross rent of $1,180, and gross rent includes selected utilities. The ZIP asking-rent index is 22.5% higher, but the gap does not make either source wrong: ACS is a survey median for occupied renter homes while ZORI follows observed asking rents. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Zillow’s exact-same-month history shows the index rose 3.2% over 1 year, versus annualized changes of 2.7% over 3 years and 5.8% over 5 years. Recent direction therefore confirms a positive longer path, but it breaks from the faster longest-horizon pace. These are backward-looking Zillow ZIP measurements through the stated endpoint, not a forecast, causal claim, or investment recommendation. They describe how the index moved, not what a forthcoming listing must do. Its blended construction also means the level is not a median lease payment.
The history is complete at the endpoint, with 100% coverage, supporting the reported horizon comparisons. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.9%, while maximum drawdown was -1.3%. Those backward-looking measures limit the confidence warranted in a single current rent snapshot: it is a useful index reading, not exact property-level pricing. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,003 for momentum, 1,524 for stability, and 1,085 for balanced history, with lower ranks higher. They organize observed history only; they neither grade housing quality nor signal an expected rent outcome.
HUD completes the third universe. The FY2026 local HUD two-bedroom value is $1,417; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent and not a substitute for either Zillow or ACS. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces a modelled monthly studio-through-four-bedroom sequence of $1,036, $1,131, $1,445, $1,990, and $2,260. The sequence preserves the HUD bedroom pattern while anchoring it to the all-type ZIP index; these are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The middle modelled figure equals the all-type index because of scaling, not because it proves a particular unit asks that amount. Lease terms, utilities, and unit characteristics remain outside the model.
A simple screen makes the arithmetic visible. Annualizing the $1,445 index, the 30% required-income screen produces $57,800. It is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $76,141, making the index’s simple asking-rent-to-income ratio 22.8%; this is an area-level comparator, not a distribution of renter incomes. In the ACS occupied-renter evidence, 3,115 of 6,767 renter households, or 46.0%, report gross-rent burdens at or above that screen. This burden statistic describes surveyed households and selected utilities in gross rent; it cannot prove affordability, burden, eligibility, or utility treatment for a particular unit or person.
The housing-stock reading also has survey rather than listing scope. Of 22,839 housing units in the matched ZCTA, 21,491 were occupied and 1,348 vacant, a 5.9% vacancy rate. Within vacancy categories, 269 units were classified vacant for rent; that is not an active-listing count, a guarantee of present availability, or evidence about condition. These categories do not identify an individual vacant unit’s turnover timing or asking rent. Renters occupied 31.5% of occupied housing units. The stock contains both single-family and large multifamily structures, but its aggregate structure mix does not identify bedroom supply, lease pricing, or which units are currently offered. Vacancy and structure data therefore add context without establishing why rents or burdens take their reported levels.
Wider geography is a useful check but not a substitute for ZIP-level evidence. In the same Zillow context, Billings city stood at $1,458, while Yellowstone County and the Billings, MT metro each stood at $1,444; city, county, and metro values are wider-context figures only. The ZIP index lies between those figures, yet broader geography scope prevents this comparison from pricing a building. None of these aggregate measures identifies the full charge structure or a particular available listing. Before relying on any index or screen, confirm the address’s applicable ZIP market and delivery designation, advertised base rent, actual bedroom count, included utilities, mandatory fees, lease term, and current availability. Does the specific active unit’s full monthly cost and lease package match the evidence universe being used?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow ZIP asking-rent index sits after positive exact-same-month changes at every reported horizon. The latest movement is stronger than the middle-horizon annualized change but slower than the longest-horizon change, which makes the path mixed rather than uniformly accelerating. Complete coverage supports the comparison, while observed variability and drawdown mean the index is best read as a historical market signal, not a property quote or forecast.","title":"Positive history, slower than the longest run"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS gross rent, and the HUD standard have distinct evidence universes. ZORI combines observed asking rents across rental types; the ACS survey observes occupied renter homes and gross rent includes selected utilities; HUD applies administrative bedroom standards. The displayed bedroom sequence is a model that uses the local HUD ladder to scale the ZIP index. It can organize size comparisons, but it does not measure rents of actual studio or larger units.","title":"Three rent measures answer different questions"},{"body":"The required-income screen converts the ZIP asking index into an annual income figure using a rent-share threshold. It is arithmetic only, and neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden share instead reports how surveyed occupied renter households allocate gross rent relative to income. Because the measures have different bases, neither establishes what a named unit will cost or whether a particular household can qualify.","title":"Required-income screen and reported burden differ"},{"body":"The ZCTA stock and vacancy totals describe an aggregate survey snapshot, including a vacant-for-rent category, not a live inventory feed. City, county, and metro rents give broader Zillow context but are not replacements for ZIP evidence. A unit-specific review should confirm the listed rent, bedroom count, utilities, fees, lease terms, geographic designation, and active status before an aggregate figure is applied to that unit.","title":"Survey stock needs listing checks"}],"risks":["ZORI represents a blended typical asking-rent index, so it cannot identify the asking price, concessions, size, utilities, fees, or availability of a specific residence today.","ACS estimates come from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a ZCTA, include selected utilities in gross rent, and are not contemporaneous asking-rent observations.","HUD values are administrative bedroom standards. Scaling ZORI by that ladder produces modelled estimates, so apparent bedroom differences should never be read as measured rents or listing quotes.","Vacancy, structure mix, burden, and wider geography are aggregate context. They cannot prove present availability, condition, household eligibility, utility treatment, or affordability for a particular home."],"qa":[{"a":"The ZIP label serves as Zillow’s market identifier and is matched here to a Census ZCTA for ACS evidence. A ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so the match permits area-level comparison but does not mean every delivery address or listing shares identical boundaries.","q":"Why does the report distinguish the ZIP label from the ZCTA?"},{"a":"The recent exact-same-month reading remains positive in the reported history, but it is not the fastest reported annualized horizon. Full coverage helps interpret the series, whereas monthly-return variability and drawdown show why one endpoint should be treated as an index observation rather than precise pricing for a unit.","q":"What does the history say about the current asking-rent snapshot?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates produced by scaling the all-type Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The method maintains a consistent bedroom pattern for comparison, but it does not observe listings, leases, utilities, or actual rents by bedroom within the ZIP.","q":"Are the bedroom values observed rents?"},{"a":"The income screen is a stated rent-share arithmetic calculation, while ACS burden describes surveyed occupied renter households. Vacancy and stock figures are aggregate survey categories rather than live listings. For a particular unit, verify total rent, fees, utilities, bedroom count, term, availability, and applicable geographic designation.","q":"How should burden, vacancy, and income figures be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1076.054042},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1091.702515},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1101.958283},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1110.431634},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1117.06528},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1137.71391},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1159.495592},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1196.164125},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1220.851402},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1230.340986},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1225.817009},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1222.180156},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1269.424748},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1297.868818},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1320.52789},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1320.617304},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1317.124723},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1316.117325},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1303.521765},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1305.338296},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1311.525599},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1323.251865},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1331.276613},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1338.652855},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1334.941746},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1332.971704},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1328.486837},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1328.616065},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1326.946546},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1328.311044},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1338.838112},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1348.217439},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1344.930071},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1339.774719},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1348.068327},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1361.971805},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1361.914654},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1357.501091},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1358.81383},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1360.427021},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1367.357268},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1372.176902},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1377.158289},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1377.49533},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1384.138948},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1381.018179},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1381.751441},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1385.92308},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1392.986843},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1400.214805},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1406.918089},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1415.322256},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1420.875491},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1425.126969},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1426.699965},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1428.743087},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1431.404158},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1441.871523},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1443.708109},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1440.140233},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1441.660271},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1445.214493}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":62,"firstPeriod":"2021-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":62,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1400.214805,"endRent":1445.214493,"change":0.03213770332902599,"cagr":0.03213770332902599},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1332.971704,"endRent":1445.214493,"change":0.0842049299795189,"cagr":0.027315386064761693},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1091.702515,"endRent":1445.214493,"change":0.32381713254549016,"cagr":0.05770753800167561}},"maxDrawdown":-0.012945112068590725,"annualizedVolatility":0.029475479570874593,"consecutiveReturnCount":61}}