For ZIP 59715, the June 2026 Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is $2,076, up 1.7% from the same month a year earlier. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quote for one available home. The five-digit label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,365, with a reported 90% margin of error of plus or minus $65; that survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI is 52.1% above that median, but the gap compares distinct populations, methods, and rent concepts. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the match should not be read as an exact delivery-area equivalence.
History makes the current increase less simple than a one-month reading suggests. In direct Zillow ZIP observations through the stated endpoint, exact same-month annualized changes were 1.7% over one year, 1.6% over three years, and 5.5% over five years. The recent direction confirms that rents remain modestly above their levels three years earlier, but it breaks sharply from the much faster five-year path. The series contains 64 monthly observations with 100% stated coverage. Classified as high variability, its 5.1% annualized monthly-return variability and -4.4% maximum drawdown justify less confidence in treating one current ZORI snapshot as a stable trajectory. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,686 for momentum, 2,840 for stability, and 2,545 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts, performance predictions, or investment recommendations.
The bedroom view offers a usable size ladder only if read as a model. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,431 for a studio, $1,583 for one bedroom, $2,076 for two bedrooms, $2,888 for three bedrooms, and $3,409 for four bedrooms. They are not measured bedroom rents, listing medians, or a claim that every property of a given size commands that amount. The supplied FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR framework supplies a two-bedroom administrative standard of $2,154; the modelled two-bedroom figure is 3.6% below it. HUD's bedroom-specific standard is administrative, not asking rent, while ZORI remains an all-rental-type asking-rent index. The ladder is therefore a transparent scaling device rather than independent confirmation of market rents by bedroom.
An income screen and the renter survey present the report's central affordability tension. Applying the 30% arithmetic screen to the ZIP asking-rent index yields required annual income of $83,040. That is below the ZCTA's $88,407 median household income, whose reported ACS margin of error is plus or minus $3,840, and the index-to-median-income calculation is 28.2%. This is arithmetic, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence that a particular household can afford a particular unit. In the ACS renter universe, 3,288 of 7,113 renter households, or 46.2%, report gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of income. The coexistence of a sub-threshold median-income screen and a substantial burden share reflects different household distributions and the ACS gross-rent universe; it cannot establish conditions for a specific lease.
Housing stock adds a second scope warning to the affordability figures. The ACS ZCTA estimate reports 17,718 housing units and 1,628 vacant units, a 9.2% vacancy rate, with renters occupying 44.2% of occupied homes. The stock spans single-family homes and larger multifamily structures, so the blended ZORI and the bedroom model should not be assumed to represent any one structure type. Of all units recorded vacant, 606 were classified as for rent; vacant housing also has non-rental uses, including for-sale and seasonal categories. These survey counts are not a real-time inventory, do not establish the condition or price of a vacant home, and do not prove availability for a particular renter.
Within the supplied wider context, the city-scope rent for Bozeman is about $2,227, and the county-scope rent for Gallatin County and metro-scope rent for Bozeman, MT are each $2,237. All three are above the ZIP index, but city, county, and metro values are wider-context measures, not readings for the matched ZCTA or a USPS delivery ZIP. The common direction only locates the ZIP within the supplied geographies; boundary and rental-composition differences rule out treating these values as property-level comparisons. The packet offers no basis for a claim about why the levels differ.
The evidence is dated and purpose-specific: current ZORI is an index, ACS is a five-year survey, HUD is an administrative standard, and history describes only the observed past. None supplies a live listing, a lease outcome, a vacancy guarantee, or a forecast. For a candidate property, concrete checks should confirm the active asking amount, bedroom count, structure type, included utilities, lease length, concessions, fees, furnished status, move-in timing, and whether any eligibility terms apply. Readers should also compare the property's location and rent definition with the Zillow ZIP identifier and matched ZCTA rather than assuming they overlap perfectly. The decisive question is whether the individual listing's terms actually match the measurement being used for comparison.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $2,076 in June 2026 and rose 1.7% from the same month a year earlier. The one- and three-year annualized changes are similarly muted, whereas the five-year rate is materially higher. With 5.1% annualized monthly-return variability and a -4.4% maximum drawdown, the current value is a useful dated indicator but a weaker stand-alone description of a stable rent path. History is backward-looking only.","title":"Positive recent path, but high variation"},{"body":"ZORI measures typical observed asking rents across rental types; ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. For the matched ZCTA, the ACS median is $1,365 compared with $2,076 ZORI. The difference is informative about source scope, but it is not a unit-level markup and cannot identify the rent, utility package, or availability of a particular home. The ZCTA is statistical, not a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Why the rent figures diverge"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom estimates use the local HUD ladder to scale the ZIP-wide ZORI, producing a consistent sizing framework. They are modelled monthly estimates, never measured bedroom rents or listing medians. HUD's corresponding standards are administrative and bedroom-specific rather than asking rents. The two-bedroom model is $2,076 versus a $2,154 HUD standard, a 3.6% difference within the supplied ladder comparison, not an observed discount.","title":"Bedroom amounts are modelled, not sampled"},{"body":"The 30% screen calculates $83,040 of annual income for the ZIP asking-rent index, below the ZCTA median household income of $88,407. Yet 46.2% of ACS renter households report gross-rent burdens of at least 30% of income. Separately, the ACS vacancy rate is 9.2%, but only part of vacant stock is designated for rent. Neither measure verifies an individual household's eligibility or a unit's present availability.","title":"Affordability signals point in different directions"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, while ACS uses occupied renter homes and gross rent with selected utilities; comparing them as interchangeable local price quotes can misstate a listing-level decision.","Recent positive history follows much stronger five-year growth but includes high return variability and a drawdown; extrapolating the current snapshot into a future rent path is unsupported.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and city, county, and metro values cover wider contexts; boundary and rental-mix differences can affect comparisons.","Vacant ACS units are survey classifications rather than a live availability feed; for-rent classification does not establish unit condition, term, price, or a renter's eligibility."],"qa":[{"a":"At the stated June 2026 endpoint, it is Zillow's ZIP-level ZORI: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not an advertised price for a named unit, a bedroom-specific median, or a statement that every available rental in ZIP 59715 asks that amount.","q":"What exactly does the current ZORI represent?"},{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey estimate for the matched Census ZCTA, limited to occupied renter homes and expressed as gross rent that includes selected utilities. Zillow tracks observed asking rents across rental types. The $1,365 ACS median and $2,076 ZORI therefore use different populations, timing, and definitions, so neither converts directly into the other.","q":"Why is ZORI higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates built by scaling the overall ZORI with the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Consequently, the estimates help keep size comparisons consistent, but they do not measure listing medians or determine the price of an individual unit.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed market rents?"},{"a":"History describes prior ZORI observations, and ACS vacancy describes survey-classified units rather than live listings. A property comparison needs the active asking amount, bedroom count, structure type, utility inclusions, lease length, concessions, fees, furnished status, move-in timing, and applicable eligibility terms before any metric can be applied to that listing.","q":"Can the vacancy rate or history validate a particular listing?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1512.834463},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1529.306355},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1549.24697},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1590.143165},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1608.07799},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1622.941282},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1635.536545},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1700.634877},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1726.484964},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1812.96102},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1806.875679},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1813.315384},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1783.832879},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1816.124761},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1828.795362},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1846.911507},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1873.709598},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1902.913047},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1912.960235},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1905.976315},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1885.376086},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1839.630935},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1860.782526},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1916.851285},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2008.492209},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2000.268714},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1998.127785},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1979.462794},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1992.62876},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1985.141979},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1984.600766},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1968.976125},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1934.541492},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1929.246103},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1920.565125},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1957.05047},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1981.415708},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2009.774024},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2016.099753},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2040.829072},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2046.773761},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2073.096613},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2089.393264},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2050.812903},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2046.414413},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2052.797895},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2109.687941},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2096.484611},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2055.85342},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2038.359469},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2041.507422},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2040.97956},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2037.228668},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2027.003435},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2024.332252},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2068.786146},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2100.652219},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2112.528257},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2075.242998},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2061.151516},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2067.482439},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2074.387103},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2076.188088},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2075.641359}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2040.97956,"endRent":2075.641359,"change":0.016982923141082518,"cagr":0.016982923141082518},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1979.462794,"endRent":2075.641359,"change":0.04858821559643833,"cagr":0.015940618363679437},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1590.143165,"endRent":2075.641359,"change":0.30531728506344913,"cagr":0.05473466012889916}},"maxDrawdown":-0.043777657491525734,"annualizedVolatility":0.0514115766822874,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}