The five-digit label 59718 poses a timing-and-definition question rather than a single-rent answer: how should a current listing be framed when the ZIP’s June 2026 Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is $2,283, up 1.4% from a year earlier? It serves both as a Zillow ZIP market identifier and as the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it establishes a current market reference, not a quote for a specific address, bedroom count, lease, or condition. That distinction is central to comparing any property’s advertised rent with this ZIP-wide reading.
The strongest affordability screen is an arithmetic cross-check, not a qualification rule. In the ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey, median household income is $99,123. At 30% of income, the current ZORI implies $91,320 in annual income and a 27.6% asking-rent-to-income ratio. This screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and the area-wide household median does not identify a renter’s income. Renter-occupied housing units account for 44.5% of occupied units. ACS reports that 46.2% of renter households pay 30% or more of income toward rent; this observed burden is not evidence that a particular listed unit has that burden.
Zillow, ACS, and HUD measures answer different questions and should not be merged. The ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,999 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The current ZORI is 14.2% above that survey median, but that gap does not measure rent growth, unit quality, or an all-in property price because the timing, households observed, and utility treatment differ. The supplied FY2026 HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,154, below the ZIP ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; it is used below only to provide a relative bedroom ladder.
The supplied local HUD ladder scales the ZIP ZORI into monthly modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. The estimates are $1,574 for a studio, $1,740 for one bedroom, $2,283 for two bedrooms, $3,175 for three bedrooms, and $3,749 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom modelled value matches the ZIP index because the scaling centers on the local two-bedroom HUD standard. These figures therefore describe proportional bedroom relationships embedded in the HUD ladder and ZORI, not listings observed separately by bedroom, property, or unit condition. A listing should not be treated as mispriced solely because it differs from one of these modelled estimates.
Housing-stock composition adds a separate availability caution. The ACS ZCTA has 20,813 housing units and 1,687 vacant units, an 8.1% vacancy rate. Of the vacant stock, 388 units are designated for rent and 804 seasonal; those labels alone neither establish that a unit is currently marketed nor describe its terms. Single-family units represent 67.1% of the reported stock, while large-multifamily units represent 5.2%. These aggregate categories provide composition, not a count of comparable listings, and they cannot show whether a particular advertised dwelling is legally available, vacant, or suitable for a particular household.
Wider comparisons keep their geographic scope. The Bozeman city context rent is about $2,227, while rent is $2,237 in both the Gallatin County context and the Bozeman, MT metro context; each is below the ZIP ZORI. The Bozeman city context renter share is 55.3%, whereas the Gallatin County context renter share is 38.9%; neither replaces the ZCTA renter share. In the Bozeman, MT metro context, median household income is $93,528 and the rent-to-income measure is 28.7%. City, county, and metro figures are wider context only, not alternate measurements of a ZIP property or proof that any ZIP condition carries over a boundary.
Limits remain material. The index blends rental types and is ZIP-wide; the survey is a historical multi-year estimate for occupied renter homes; and the HUD standard is administrative. Survey uncertainty also applies to its income, rent, occupancy, and burden estimates. Neither the vacancy categories nor the modelled ladder identify a specific available home. At property level, verify the advertised base rent, the bedroom count used in the quote, included and separately billed utilities, recurring fees, move-in fees, lease length, availability date, renewal terms, and the address’s delivery ZIP and market geography. Also verify whether the posted price applies throughout the lease, whether required charges are included in the displayed amount, and whether the property is actually available. Only property-level documents can resolve those details at the time of a live quotation. These checks keep an aggregate comparison from being mistaken for evidence about a particular unit.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI is $2,283, a 1.4% year-over-year increase. It is a ZIP-wide typical observed asking-rent index blending rental types, not a property quote. The five-digit geography is also a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is statistical and not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP. Address-level geography and the actual quote remain separate checks.","title":"Current index is a market reference"},{"body":"ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,999 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; ZORI is 14.2% higher. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom standard is $2,154. Neither comparison yields a property-level asking rent: ACS is a historical survey measure, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent.","title":"ACS and HUD are not asking-rent substitutes"},{"body":"The bedroom series is expressly modelled. It uses the local HUD ladder to scale the ZIP ZORI, producing estimates from $1,574 for a studio to $3,749 for four bedrooms. The intermediate values reflect HUD proportions, not separately observed bedroom rents. A difference between an advertised unit and the series can reflect property specifics or measurement scope; it does not independently establish an error in the quote.","title":"Bedroom series is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"ACS reports an 8.1% ZIP vacancy rate, but only 388 of 1,687 vacant units are classified for rent, while 804 are seasonal. That composition makes the headline rate unsuitable as a listing inventory count. The stock is mostly reported as single-family units, with a much smaller large-multifamily share, yet structure categories still do not reveal current availability, lease terms, or comparable-unit counts.","title":"Vacancy is not equivalent to listing inventory"}],"risks":["The ZORI, ACS gross-rent, and HUD standard figures have different dates, populations, utility treatment, and purposes. Treating their gaps as a price change or a property valuation would overstate what the packet supports.","The bedroom figures are proportional outputs from a HUD-based ladder anchored to the ZIP index. They do not observe bedroom-specific listings, and they omit property differences such as lease terms, included charges, and condition.","ACS income, renter share, burden, and vacancy results are survey estimates for the matched ZCTA, subject to sampling uncertainty. Area medians and shares cannot identify the finances, occupancy, or burden of a prospective renter.","Vacancy labels include seasonal and other uses, and a ZCTA does not perfectly match a USPS delivery ZIP. No aggregate statistic confirms an address’s current marketing status, geographic inclusion, or quoted all-in monthly cost."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI reflects a June 2026 typical observed asking-rent index across blended rental types. ACS median gross rent is a 2024 five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The 14.2% gap therefore combines timing, populations, and rent definitions; it is not a demonstrated change in comparable unit rents.","q":"Why is ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent here?"},{"a":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates, created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with relative levels in the supplied local HUD ladder. The two-bedroom estimate equals the ZIP index because that is the scaling center. They are not measured rents from separate bedroom-specific listing samples and cannot establish a quote’s accuracy.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates created?"},{"a":"Applying 30% to the current ZIP ZORI yields $91,320 as an annual arithmetic screen, and comparing annual ZORI with area median household income yields 27.6%. It is neither financial advice nor a tenant qualification rule. It does not reflect an applicant’s verified income, assets, household composition, subsidies, debts, or property-specific charges.","q":"What does the 30% income figure tell an analyst?"},{"a":"No. The vacancy statistic is an aggregate ACS ZCTA measure with categories that include seasonal units, and the burden statistic is an observed survey share among renter households. Neither identifies a named property, its current vacancy, its rent components, its lease terms, or whether a particular applicant can afford it.","q":"Can the vacancy or burden data confirm a listing is available or affordable?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1815.357338},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1826.600571},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1856.449433},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1869.867439},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1896.569074},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1912.604411},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1952.900941},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1983.555399},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2024.194293},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2082.675465},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2095.386363},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2130.004692},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2115.176105},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2145.534549},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2164.368511},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2195.801441},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2223.546423},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2259.715133},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2309.967792},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2350.13576},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2318.671213},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2290.282679},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2254.947909},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2261.722746},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2282.66697},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2306.128735},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2308.177654},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2311.951146},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2318.049206},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2301.582246},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2292.989252},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2280.292348},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2276.004742},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2289.353459},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2291.55859},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2283.448022},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2273.217893},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2297.288463},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2319.318432},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2320.285021},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2291.265305},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2287.27186},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2295.497044},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2301.258083},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2325.001461},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2318.190764},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2324.876221},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2310.801595},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2305.376922},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2275.543032},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2254.554785},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2247.868746},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2251.574728},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2249.089532},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2239.08559},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2236.540509},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2224.273222},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2227.106128},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2226.164959},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2239.139631},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2243.864492},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2251.978251},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2259.781214},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2267.996707},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2282.898485}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":0.9848484848484849,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2251.574728,"endRent":2282.898485,"change":0.013911933106401486,"cagr":0.013911933106401486},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2318.049206,"endRent":2282.898485,"change":-0.015163923573760396,"cagr":-0.00508040802761256},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1912.604411,"endRent":2282.898485,"change":0.1936072466790939,"cagr":0.03602989991813765}},"maxDrawdown":-0.053555432899757394,"annualizedVolatility":0.032764065672065135,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}