ZIP 59801’s strongest tension is between a current asking-rent signal and an occupied-home survey benchmark. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,513 per month, up 5.0% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a median lease for a fixed unit size. The matched Census ZCTA’s 2024 five-year ACS median gross rent is $1,124, and ZORI is 34.6% above that occupied-renter-home survey measure, which includes selected utilities. This source-universe difference is not evidence that a particular available unit is overpriced. The five-digit label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The Zillow history is relatively complete but strictly backward-looking. It has 65 monthly observations and 100% coverage. Exact same-month annualized changes are 5.0% over one year, 3.9% over three years, and 5.3% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path, but the one-year pace exceeds the three-year rate and trails the five-year rate; the direction aligns without duplicating its pace. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.3%, and maximum drawdown is -1.7%. Those observed fluctuations make a single current snapshot more useful as an index point within a measured path than as a fixed unit quote. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 463 for momentum, 2,036 for stability, and 867 for balanced, where lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Bedroom detail requires a model, not a claim of measurement. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI through this local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,045 for a studio, $1,246 for one bedroom, $1,513 for two bedrooms, $1,974 for three bedrooms, and $2,353 for four bedrooms. The corresponding two-bedroom HUD standard is $1,508, which is the administrative benchmark used in the scaling relationship. The model retains the ZIP ZORI anchor at that bedroom size. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and neither HUD nor this model establishes the asking rent of an actual listing.
An arithmetic screen makes the pressure visible without becoming an eligibility judgment. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, current ZORI implies required annual household income of $60,520. That is above the ZCTA ACS median household income of $58,347, and the relationship is a 31.1% asking-rent-to-income ratio. This screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS estimates that 4,388 of 8,626 renter households, or 50.9%, meet or exceed that gross-rent burden threshold. That burden result describes occupied renter homes, not a specific applicant or unit, and cannot prove payment pressure, lease terms, or utility responsibility at a particular property.
Stock evidence needs equally careful handling. The matched ZCTA has 16,053 housing units and an overall vacancy rate of 6.3%; renters account for 57.4% of occupied units. The structure mix contains more single-family units than large multifamily units, so the stock is not captured by one building form or bedroom mix. The 119 units counted vacant for rent are a survey category within the aggregate, not a live inventory or proof that a similarly priced unit is currently obtainable. Likewise, vacancy cannot establish condition, utilities, lease terms, or price for a given property.
The supplied wider-place comparisons set a different frame without replacing ZIP evidence. The ZIP’s current index is lower than the Missoula city context at about $1,550, the Missoula County context at $1,567, and the Missoula, MT metro context at $1,567. Each is context for a wider geography, not a substitute for the ZIP-level asking index or for a property quote. City, county, and metro values may help locate the ZIP within broader measures, but differences in geography, unit mix, and source scope prevent them from establishing a rent, vacancy outcome, or affordability result for an individual home.
Uncertainty and property-level fit are the final boundary. The ACS median gross-rent estimate’s 90% margin of error is $58, and the ACS median household-income estimate’s is $5,530. Those survey margins belong to ACS, not to ZORI or the HUD standard. Neither a blended asking index, an administrative bedroom standard, a burden statistic, nor a vacancy total identifies an actual unit’s condition or bill structure. Property-level checks include address-to-ZIP mapping, advertised rent, bedroom count, included and separately charged utilities, furnished status, availability date, lease length, concessions, and fees. Which current listings match the model’s bedroom, utility, and lease assumptions?
","findings":[{"body":"The June 2026 Zillow ZORI of $1,513 is a blended typical observed asking-rent index. The ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA median gross rent of $1,124 instead summarizes occupied renter homes and selected utilities. Its 34.6% gap from ZORI is a comparison signal across different evidence universes, not a rent appraisal or a statement about one available dwelling.","title":"Asking index sits well above the survey rent benchmark"},{"body":"History has 65 monthly observations and 100% coverage. Same-month annualized growth was 5.0% over one year, 3.9% over three years, and 5.3% over five years. The positive recent direction therefore aligns with, but does not mirror, the longer path. Volatility of 3.3% and a maximum drawdown of -1.7% describe past index movement rather than future rent performance.","title":"History is positive, but the recent pace is not identical"},{"body":"The local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder scales the ZIP-wide ZORI into modelled bedroom estimates, ranging from $1,045 for a studio to $2,353 for four bedrooms. The $1,513 two-bedroom estimate is close to the $1,508 HUD standard because HUD supplies the scaling ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, and the resulting values are not measured bedroom rents.","title":"Bedroom amounts are HUD-scaled model outputs"},{"body":"The $60,520 required-income figure is the arithmetic result of applying a 30% screen to the current monthly ZORI; it is not an eligibility test. ACS reports that 4,388 of 8,626 renter households meet or exceed that gross-rent burden threshold. Combined with a 6.3% ZCTA vacancy rate, these aggregates frame conditions but cannot establish availability or payment experience for an individual unit.","title":"Income screen and burden data identify aggregate pressure"}],"risks":["The principal comparability risk is treating a current Zillow asking-rent index as interchangeable with an ACS five-year median gross rent. Their unit populations, timing, utility treatment, and rental-type coverage differ.","The bedroom amounts inherit a HUD ladder rather than observed bedroom-specific ZIP rents. Bedroom count, furnishings, utility billing, condition, concessions, and lease terms can move an individual asking price away from the model.","ACS ZCTA boundaries are statistical and may not equal USPS delivery ZIP boundaries; its survey estimates also carry margins of error. Geographic matching therefore does not ensure every address belongs to the same evidence universe.","Vacant-for-rent counts and renter burden are aggregates, not property records. They cannot establish whether a specific unit is currently available, what it costs with utilities, or whether a household will experience a given burden."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is the ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index in the packet, blended across rental types. It indicates a current market asking-rent signal for the ZIP, not a signed lease median, a utility-inclusive gross-rent measure, or a quoted price for a specific bedroom configuration.","q":"What does Zillow ZORI measure here?"},{"a":"The ACS result has a different universe: it is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is a statistical area matched to the ZIP identifier, rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Different timing, covered households, and definitions mean the measures must remain separate.","q":"Why does the ACS median gross rent differ from ZORI?"},{"a":"It divides the annualized monthly ZORI by 30% and produces $60,520. This is an arithmetic comparison point against the $58,347 ZCTA ACS median household income. It does not assess an applicant’s income, debts, household composition, eligibility, or likely approval for any property.","q":"What does the 30% required-income result mean?"},{"a":"A property-level comparison requires confirmation that the address maps to the intended ZIP market, plus its advertised monthly rent, actual bedroom count, utility treatment, furnished status, availability, lease term, fees, and concessions. That listing evidence should remain distinct from the blended Zillow index, ACS survey statistic, and HUD administrative benchmark.","q":"What should be checked for a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1062.81828},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1073.823378},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1102.402829},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1130.233197},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1171.077091},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1202.90524},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1211.845356},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1202.236023},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1196.397475},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1206.680785},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1225.229208},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1250.657298},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1246.081876},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1256.822686},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1248.552424},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1273.067703},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1278.482857},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1275.091877},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1282.604007},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1297.297229},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1324.516845},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1333.79616},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1344.594228},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1333.067589},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1333.400673},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1331.129701},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1359.242937},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1350.517062},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1347.482563},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1339.810597},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1339.085159},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1336.615262},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1347.765025},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1359.010367},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1366.873846},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1367.225643},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1368.344704},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1379.749197},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1375.468469},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1380.783676},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1392.663184},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1395.463748},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1403.092329},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1409.002519},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1417.386888},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1413.715855},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1405.795036},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1415.990836},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1441.054488},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1453.143488},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1448.290154},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1442.235935},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1440.687036},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1453.436227},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1457.419372},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1462.845382},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1456.84393},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1463.800255},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1475.506493},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1481.568858},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1474.262134},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1472.388333},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1485.885652},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1502.715967},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1512.669753}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1440.687036,"endRent":1512.669753,"change":0.04996415959975353,"cagr":0.04996415959975353},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1347.482563,"endRent":1512.669753,"change":0.12258948244364021,"cagr":0.039298553891038424},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1171.077091,"endRent":1512.669753,"change":0.2916910121675327,"cagr":0.05252332138861293}},"maxDrawdown":-0.01664726325519239,"annualizedVolatility":0.0329324143676244,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}