At the stated June Zillow endpoint, 60440 presents a rent-versus-resale tension rather than a single uncomplicated signal. ZIP ZORI was $2,578, and Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is an asking-rent benchmark, not a survey median, a bedroom table, or a record of resale transactions. The Bolingbrook city-context asking-rent value was about $2,693, the Will County context asking-rent value was $2,347, and the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metro-context asking-rent value was $2,275; each names a broader scope, not a substitute for the ZIP. The five-digit label 60440 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
That asking benchmark is materially above the survey snapshot, but the comparison is intentionally not like for like. In the matched ACS five-year ZCTA, median gross rent was $1,695, making current ZORI 52.1% higher. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities; it is neither a contemporaneous asking-rent series nor an assessment of one available unit. The same ACS universe reports median household income of $93,494. Annualizing current ZORI gives a $103,120 income figure under a 30% required-income screen, equivalent to ZORI being 33.1% of that income median. This screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant-qualification rule.
Looking backward, the direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history shows exact same-month annualized changes of 2.84% over 1 year, 6.02% over 3 years, and 6.95% over 5 years. Recent direction still rises, but the latest pace breaks from, rather than confirms, the faster longer-run growth path. These are backward-looking index measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. History coverage was 100%, indicating no gaps in the reported series. Annualized monthly-return variability was 4.27%, matching the high-variability category and reducing the confidence a reader should place in one current rent snapshot. Separately, maximum historical drawdown reached 2.10%, documenting an observed pullback. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower rank is higher, were 615 for momentum, 2,699 for stability, and 1,562 for balanced history.
The HUD ladder is useful for shaping a model, but it is not a rent comp. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $2,060, and HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by each local HUD ladder value relative to that two-bedroom standard produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,140 for a studio, $2,290 for one bedroom, $2,578 for two bedrooms, $3,316 for three bedrooms, and $3,842 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The two-bedroom equality with ZORI is a feature of the scaling method, not evidence that observed two-bedroom asking rents equal the ZIP-wide index.
The resale side supplies the strongest counterweight to the slower recent asking-rent pace. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a median sold price of $348,421, up 8.88% year over year. It recorded 146 homes sold and 43 median days on market. Inventory was 110 homes, while months of supply stood at 2.3. The average sale-to-list ratio was 101.75%, and 60.62% of homes sold above list. These are exclusively for-sale market observations, not rental transactions. Together, the resale volume, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list signals describe ZIP resale liquidity; they challenge any simple reading that slower rent growth alone represents broad weakening, but they do not alter the income screen or establish rental conditions.
The ACS stock lens is aggregate rather than unit-specific. The matched ZCTA contained 17,585 housing units, of which 355 were vacant, for a 2.02% vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes numbered 4,312, representing a 25.0% renter share of occupied homes. Among renter households, 2,297, or 53.3%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of household income. The ACS survey estimates carry their stated margins of error and should be read as area-level conditions across the survey period. Neither the vacancy figure nor the burden figure proves that a particular unit is available, that a particular household is burdened, or that the current ZORI applies to either one.
Annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing it by Redfin's median sold price produces an 8.9% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a relationship between a blended asking-rent index and a direct ZIP resale median, not a measure of property-level operating results or a substitute for property-specific records. Its value is in keeping the two evidence streams visible at once: asking rent remains above the ACS gross-rent benchmark and the mechanical income screen, while resale outcomes show a different and firmer recent pattern. That tension is descriptive, not causal, and it cannot be resolved by treating either source as a proxy for the other.
Important limits follow from the different populations, methods, and time windows behind the sources. Zillow describes typical observed asks, ACS describes occupied renter households, HUD provides administrative standards, and Redfin describes completed for-sale activity. A property-level review would need to verify the exact address's relationship to the ZIP and matched ZCTA, the current advertised rent, lease term, stated utility inclusion, actual bedroom configuration, and relevant listing or sale status. It would also need to determine whether the unit's own terms resemble any ZIP-level benchmark at all. Which documented unit facts would show whether the modelled bedroom estimate and the current ZIP asking-rent snapshot are relevant to that specific property?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s $2,578 ZIP ZORI is 52.1% above the matched ZCTA’s $1,695 ACS median gross rent. This is a source-universe gap, not a contradiction: ZORI reflects typical current observed asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS summarizes occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities. The gap makes direct substitution inappropriate.","title":"Current asking rent exceeds the survey benchmark"},{"body":"Backward-looking ZORI history shows a 2.84% same-month annualized change over 1 year, versus 6.02% over 3 years and 6.95% over 5 years. The positive latest direction therefore continues upward movement but is slower than the longer path. A 4.27% annualized variability reading and a 2.10% maximum drawdown warrant care when interpreting one rent snapshot.","title":"Recent rent growth is positive but slower than the longer path"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale data report a $348,421 median sold price, 146 homes sold, 43 median days on market, 2.3 months of supply, and a 101.75% average sale-to-list figure. These are for-sale outcomes, not rental transactions. They create a resale-market counterpoint to the rent-growth slowdown without changing the ZORI affordability arithmetic.","title":"Resale signals remain separate from rental evidence"},{"body":"The matched ACS ZCTA reports 17,585 housing units and a 2.02% vacancy rate, with renters occupying 4,312 homes. Of those renter households, 2,297, or 53.3%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of income. These are aggregate survey conditions with sampling uncertainty. Neither statistic establishes availability or payment stress for a particular unit.","title":"Aggregate vacancy and burden do not describe a specific unit"}],"risks":["Zillow’s $2,578 reading is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, so it can diverge from a particular property’s advertised rent, lease terms, utility treatment, bedroom configuration, condition, and availability.","The ACS ZCTA survey reports occupied renter households over five years and has sampling uncertainty; its median gross rent and burden share should not be read as a contemporaneous snapshot or a particular household’s outcome.","The history has full coverage but a high-variability category. Its slower latest annual change, monthly-return variation, and past drawdown are backward-looking observations that cannot establish future asking-rent movement.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month figures show ZIP resale outcomes only. Sale prices and sale-to-list signals are not rental comps, cannot identify unit economics, and cannot turn the cross-source ratio into an operating result."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the stated June endpoint. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, where gross rent includes selected utilities. The $2,578 and $1,695 figures therefore answer different questions and should not be equated.","q":"Why does the Zillow figure differ so much from ACS gross rent?"},{"a":"The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative standard, not asking rent. The method preserves local HUD bedroom proportions, but it does not observe or measure current listings in any bedroom size.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"The $103,120 figure annualizes the monthly ZORI level and divides it by the 30% screen. That is a transparent arithmetic comparison with the ACS income median, not affordability advice, tenant underwriting, or an applicant qualification rule. It cannot identify a specific household’s income, expenses, or lease obligations.","q":"What does the required-income figure at 30% mean?"},{"a":"Redfin supplies a direct rolling-three-month 60440 for-sale observation of resale price, sales count, marketing time, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list results. It does not measure rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price creates only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level operating measure.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block add?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1691.673853},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1746.480678},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1764.334172},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1800.729024},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1841.961614},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1889.52285},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1907.654017},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1897.868789},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1904.658585},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1888.433264},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1955.008769},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1932.314436},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1984.360598},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1965.656611},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1982.298808},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1981.335851},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1995.863177},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2011.616695},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2043.6163},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2066.029892},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2050.430378},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2044.524819},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2041.702833},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2119.350554},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2128.120411},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2126.409261},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2133.575612},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2154.099234},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2162.930966},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2131.394763},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2128.631113},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2140.031709},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2209.240186},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2263.731091},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2304.102624},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2285.072083},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2255.715611},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2278.744938},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2314.316915},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2348.443994},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2353.030799},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2374.341182},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2395.963727},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2422.882947},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2382.631432},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2414.341027},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2430.059009},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2481.12276},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2486.015435},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2479.520642},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2477.406493},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2500.858342},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2506.507523},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2534.017348},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2542.64229},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2541.583388},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2569.301242},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2546.688711},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2540.624066},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2521.177647},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2555.49179},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2575.687485},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2581.573248},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2564.793622},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2577.695238}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2506.507523,"endRent":2577.695238,"change":0.028401157525669962,"cagr":0.028401157525669962},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2162.930966,"endRent":2577.695238,"change":0.19176029125286465,"cagr":0.06022075954239936},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1841.961614,"endRent":2577.695238,"change":0.3994294009212722,"cagr":0.06952317312241885}},"maxDrawdown":-0.021000372334110118,"annualizedVolatility":0.04274412813923697,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}