At June 2026, Zillow's ZIP ZORI stood at $2,231 per month, up 2.14% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease quote for a specified apartment or house. Annualizing that index and applying a 30% screen produces $89,240 of required household income. The matched ACS median household income is $98,008, placing the simple asking-rent-to-income arithmetic at 27.3%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS median gross rent is $1,965, including selected utilities, so the current asking index is 13.5% higher; nonetheless, an estimated 43.3% of surveyed renter homes spent at least 30% of income on rent. The contrast is a broad affordability tension, not evidence about any tenant or unit.
June's positive reading sits within a cooling historical pattern, not a falling-rent claim. Exact same-month Zillow ZORI changes were 2.14% over 1 year, 4.77% annualized over 3 years, and 6.40% annualized over 5 years. The latest increase therefore breaks from the earlier, faster growth rate while keeping the index above its prior-year level. Coverage is complete across 137 monthly observations. Annualized monthly-return variability measures 2.29%, indicating how much index changes moved around their historical path. A separate maximum drawdown of 1.45% marks the largest peak-to-trough decline recorded. The transparent national discovery ranks are 905 for momentum, 400 for stability, and 311 for balanced history; lower ranks place higher among history-eligible ZIPs. These backward-looking measures provide continuity for the index snapshot, but slower recent growth and the absence of unit detail limit the confidence a reader should place in one current asking-rent observation. They are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations.
Direct ZIP resale evidence adds a different tension rather than rental confirmation. In Redfin's rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, median sold price was $369,916, down 0.02% year over year. It recorded 146 homes sold, a 50-day median marketing time, and reported inventory of 112 homes; months of supply were 2.3. Average sale-to-list reached 100.36%, and 39.47% of sales closed above list. Those figures describe resale pricing and liquidity, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. Near-flat resale pricing challenges any simple claim that the faster multiyear rent history still represents a unified current market direction, while the volume and sale-to-list signals show direct resale activity. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is 7.24%, solely a cross-source screening ratio. It says nothing about operating costs, cash flow, value, or future performance.
Bedroom detail is a model construction, not an additional rent observation. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the supplied local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,844 for a studio, $1,973 for one bedroom, $2,231 for two bedrooms, $2,876 for three bedrooms, and $3,319 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom modelled estimate aligns with the ZIP index baseline; the remaining rungs are scaled values. The supplied HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $2,420. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent, and its ladder must not be treated as a set of measured ZIP bedroom rents. The modelled estimates are useful only as a transparent sizing device when an actual unit's bedroom count is known.
Stock evidence comes from the matched ZCTA's ACS survey rather than an availability feed. It reports 15,329 housing units and a 4.9% all-unit vacancy rate. That all-unit rate, including its vacancy categories, cannot prove that a particular rental is currently available or suitable. Renters occupied 41.0% of occupied homes, while the structure inventory included 11,033 single-family units and 1,280 units in large multifamily buildings. The mix clarifies that the ZIP-level asking index spans more than a single apartment segment. Survey counts, renter share, and vacancy categories describe area-wide housing stock, not a particular property's condition, terms, leasing pace, or an individual household's experience.
Wider comparisons put the index in a mixed position. In the Aurora city context, rent was $2,287; in the DuPage County context, rent was $2,140; and in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metro context, rent was $2,275. The ZIP figure therefore sits below the named city and metro context values but above the named county context value. Each is a broader geographic context, not a replacement for the ZIP observation. The metro context's apartment vacancy statistic also has apartment-only scope, unlike the ZCTA's all-housing vacancy rate, so those measures should not be merged into a single availability conclusion. These comparisons supply scale only; they do not make any statement about a specific rental or resale property.
Geographic and source labels are material here. The five-digit label 60504 is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match used for ACS. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS 2024 five-year rent values are survey estimates, with margins of error, for occupied renter homes; its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI instead tracks a current ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types. That scope and timing difference means the gap between the two rent figures is not a direct measure of rent change or an apples-to-apples unit comparison. HUD is an administrative standard, while Redfin is a direct ZIP rolling resale observation. Keeping these universes separate avoids turning context, standards, survey results, and sales evidence into interchangeable rental facts.
Every figure has a decision limit. The history measures describe past index behavior, and the resale screen is not a forecast, investment recommendation, or property-specific economic statement. A property-level review would need to verify the exact advertised monthly rent, bedroom configuration, included and tenant-paid utilities, recurring charges, concessions, lease duration, move-in conditions, current availability, and physical condition. If examining a resale listing, the relevant checks also include the subject property's current listing status, contract or closing information, and condition rather than assuming ZIP resale statistics apply. The income screen cannot decide applicant eligibility, and vacancy or burden data cannot establish a unit's vacancy or a household's burden. The useful conclusion is bounded: the ZIP index, historical cooling, survey affordability tension, and direct resale activity describe separate broad signals whose match to actual terms remains unobserved.
","findings":[{"body":"Current Zillow ZORI is positive year over year, but its same-month increase is below the corresponding three-year and five-year annualized rates. The documented cooling is a change in growth pace, not a statement that the index has fallen. Complete history and relatively contained past moves support use of the index as a retrospective ZIP reference, while leaving any individual advertised rent unverified.","title":"Cooling rent path, still positive current index"},{"body":"Annualizing the ZIP asking-rent index produces an income screen below the reported median household income, yet the ACS survey reports a substantial renter burden. That is a source and population tension, not a contradiction about a particular renter: ACS is a multiyear occupied-home survey with gross rent, while ZORI is a current blended asking-rent index. The thirty-percent calculation is not an eligibility rule.","title":"Income screen and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"Redfin's direct rolling ZIP resale observation supplies a near-flat annual price change alongside completed sales, limited months of supply, and sale-to-list signals above par. That combination is meaningful only for the for-sale market. It challenges a single narrative drawn from historical rent growth, but it neither supplies rental comparables nor establishes property operating performance, price expectations, or a return.","title":"Resale liquidity is not rental corroboration"},{"body":"The five-digit label maps a Zillow ZIP market identifier to a Census ZCTA match, but these geographies should not be confused with USPS delivery ZIP boundaries. HUD scaling turns the blended ZORI into modelled bedroom estimates; it does not produce measured bedroom rents. ACS, HUD, Zillow, Redfin, and broader jurisdictional context each answer a different question.","title":"Bedroom ladder and geography require guardrails"}],"risks":["The current Zillow figure is a broad index across rental types, so an individual unit's advertised amount, utility treatment, concessions, lease structure, and availability can differ materially from the ZIP snapshot.","ACS uses a multiyear survey and published margins of error; its gross-rent, income, renter-share, and burden estimates describe occupied renter homes, not only current listings, currently vacant units, or every delivery address.","HUD bedroom standards and the resulting modelled ladder are administrative scaling inputs. They cannot establish measured rents, property condition, leasing velocity, tenant-paid charges, or availability for a particular studio, apartment, or house.","Redfin is a rolling ZIP resale dataset rather than rental transaction evidence. The rent-to-price screen omits operating costs, financing, taxes, repairs, legal terms, and property-specific condition, so it cannot state property economics."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow ZORI for the ZIP market identifier, a typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types. It is not a quoted rent for a particular address, and it should not be substituted for ACS gross rent, HUD administrative standards, or Redfin resale outcomes. Current listings can differ in terms and utility treatment.","q":"What does the June Zillow number represent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates formed by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The HUD figures are administrative FMR/SAFMR standards, not asking rents. The estimates help size the index across bedroom counts but cannot prove a market rent, unit condition, or availability for any exact bedroom type.","q":"Are the studio-through-four-bedroom amounts observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"The required-income figure simply annualizes the index and applies a thirty-percent share; it is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant test. ACS burden measures come from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and include uncertainty. A ZIP-level income comparison and a burden share can coexist without describing the finances of any particular tenant.","q":"How should income and burden data be read together?"},{"a":"No. The history is a backward-looking asking-rent index series, and Redfin is a direct rolling resale observation. Their annualized-rent-to-sale-price calculation is only a cross-source screen; it omits property costs and does not measure rental transactions. Sale price, supply, marketing, and sale-to-list data should be interpreted solely within the for-sale universe.","q":"Can rental history and Redfin resale figures be combined into a return conclusion?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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