In June 2026, Zillow put the typical observed asking-rent index for this ZIP at $2,397 per month, up 5.8% from the same month a year earlier. The five-digit label 60612 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI blends rental types into a typical observed asking-rent index, so it tracks marketed asking conditions rather than every signed lease, every occupied home, or a bedroom-specific transaction. The immediate tension is that this current asking snapshot is elevated relative to the ZIP’s survey-era household-income benchmark, while resale prices rose still faster.
The ACS 2024 five-year survey, by contrast, reports a $1,389 median gross rent for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA. Gross rent includes selected utilities; it is not an asking-rent series and does not duplicate the Zillow rental mix or observation timing. The current ZORI is 72.6% above that survey median. This gap is a source-universe difference shaped by distinct timing and housing composition, rather than evidence that any given tenant pays the index level. Its useful signal is that a current listing-oriented measure substantially exceeds a backward-looking occupied-renter benchmark.
Income arithmetic sharpens that distinction. The ACS matched-ZCTA median household income is $60,922, a five-year survey estimate for all households rather than a renter-only application record. Applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the $2,397 monthly index produces $95,880 of annual income and places annualized asking rent at 47.2% of that median income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 47.9% of renter households in the ACS survey reported paying at least that share of income toward rent. That burden measure describes surveyed households with their own rents and incomes; it cannot establish burden, affordability, or availability for a particular unit.
Outside the ZIP, the City of Chicago context scope had a rent figure of about $2,409, the Cook County context scope had $2,336, and the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metro context scope had $2,275; each is wider context only, not a substitute for ZIP evidence. The ZIP’s asking-rent index is therefore closely aligned with the city context while exceeding the county and metro context figures. These comparisons locate the current index without converting broader geographies into ZIP-level rental comps or combining their income and vacancy measures with the matched-ZCTA calculations.
The apparent bedroom ladder is deliberately modelled rather than measured. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local FY2026 HUD ladder yields monthly modelled estimates of $1,993 for a studio, $2,123 for one bedroom, $2,397 for two, $3,087 for three, and $3,569 for four bedrooms. They borrow the local HUD bedroom pattern; they are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent: its local two-bedroom standard is $1,840, making the index-derived two-bedroom estimate 30.3% higher. The equality between that modelled two-bedroom figure and the all-type ZORI is a construction result, not confirmation of a two-bedroom market rent.
The ACS ZCTA housing snapshot contains 16,997 units and a 9.4% all-housing vacancy rate. Renter occupancy represents 68.8% of occupied units, making renter-household survey measures central to this ZIP reading. Of vacant stock, 361 units were classified as vacant for rent. That classification is not live-listing evidence: it does not show price, condition, bedroom count, concessions, or leaseability, and it cannot prove a vacancy at a specific property. It instead separates an all-stock vacancy measure from the current asking-rent index and avoids treating either as a unit-level availability count.
History makes the recent gain less simple than a single current snapshot. Exact same-month ZORI change was 5.8% over one year, 5.3% annualized over three years, and 6.6% annualized over five years through June 2026. Recent direction therefore confirms a sustained upward path relative to the three-year pace, but it does not exceed the longer five-year pace. Coverage was 99.3%, supporting continuity of this backward-looking series. At 3.2%, annualized monthly-return variability means a current reading should not be treated as a precise permanent level. A 4.3% maximum drawdown shows that declines occurred within the observed path. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 217 for momentum, 1,888 for stability, and 541 for the balanced measure. These are descriptive rankings, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale evidence supplies a separate and partly challenging signal. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 2026, median sold price was $524,881, up 18.1% year over year. The same for-sale record logged 99 homes sold, a 58-day median marketing time, inventory of 99 homes, and 3.0 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 99.6%, while 34.4% of homes sold above list. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions, rental comps, or evidence about a lease. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals a 5.48% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The faster resale price change challenges a simple reading of rent momentum and the income screen because sale prices and asking rents have not moved at the same pace. Unresolved property-level checks include current advertised rent and concessions, bedroom count, utilities, lease terms, unit condition, and comparable sales evidence. Can those items be documented before applying these area-level screens to a specific home?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 Zillow ZORI is $2,397, while the ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA median gross rent is $1,389. The 72.6% difference is not an apples-to-apples price gap: ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, whereas ACS measures occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The disparity is nevertheless the central current-market versus resident-survey tension.","title":"Current asks sit far above the occupied-renter survey benchmark"},{"body":"A $95,880 annual income is the mechanical result of applying the 30% screen to the current monthly ZORI. It neither states a qualifying income nor resolves a household’s actual rent exposure. The ACS ZCTA reports 47.9% of renter households at or above that burden threshold, but that survey statistic cannot show whether any listed or specific unit is affordable.","title":"The income screen is demanding, but it is not a qualification rule"},{"body":"Exact same-month ZORI gains were 5.8% across one year, 5.3% annualized across three years, and 6.6% annualized across five years. The recent reading continues the positive longer path but is below the five-year pace. Coverage of 99.3% supports continuity, while monthly variability and drawdown keep any single current index from carrying unwarranted precision.","title":"Rent history remains positive but does not make the snapshot permanent"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a $524,881 median sold price and an 18.1% annual increase, faster than the current ZORI gain. Its sale, inventory, marketing-time, and sale-to-list measures describe for-sale liquidity only. The 5.48% annual-rent-to-price figure is a cross-source screen, not a property yield or return measure.","title":"Resale prices are moving faster than the asking-rent index"}],"risks":["Cross-source comparison risk is high: Zillow’s blended asking index, ACS gross rent with selected utilities, and HUD’s administrative bedroom standards describe different populations, timing, and purposes rather than interchangeable rental prices.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS five-year estimates are survey summaries; neither geography nor timing identifies the rent, occupancy, or condition of a specific address.","History has broad coverage but contains monthly variation and an observed drawdown. Its discovery ranks and growth measurements are backward-looking descriptions, so they cannot determine future asking rents, sales outcomes, or lease negotiations.","Redfin’s sale price and liquidity metrics come solely from the rolling ZIP resale market. The annual-rent-to-price screen excludes operating costs, financing, taxes, property condition, and unit-specific rental evidence, so it cannot represent property economics."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a typical observed ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types and is oriented to listing-side asks. ACS is a matched-ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Its median is not a live asking-rent comp, so the difference reflects source universe, timing, and housing mix as well as levels.","q":"Why are Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent so far apart?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates generated by scaling the all-type ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not a measurement of advertised rent. A particular unit’s bedroom count, utilities, terms, and asking price can depart from the model.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual measured rents for 60612?"},{"a":"The $95,880 figure results solely from dividing annualized ZORI by 30%, then comparing that result with survey median household income. It is not advice, a leasing rule, or a statement that a household will qualify. The burden share instead summarizes surveyed renter households with their own incomes and rents, not a specific vacancy.","q":"What does the required-income and rent-burden screen establish?"},{"a":"Redfin adds direct ZIP for-sale evidence on sold prices, sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It does not provide rental transactions or rental comparables. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio and omits unit condition, costs, financing, taxes, and lease evidence.","q":"What does the Redfin block add to this rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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