For market label 60629, the central decision is whether a comparatively low current asking-rent level outweighs a less comfortable resident affordability signal. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,427 a month, up 4.7% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quote for any available home. The five-digit label is used both as a Zillow ZIP market identifier and as the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so market-level evidence should not be treated as exact-address coverage.
Three rent measures in the packet answer different questions and should not be averaged. The ACS 2024 five-year estimate puts median gross rent at $1,172, with a ±$42 survey margin of error. That statistic covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is not an asking-rent series. Zillow’s index sits 21.8% above it, a gap consistent with different populations, timing, and rent concepts, although the packet does not establish causation. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $1,360, making the blended ZIP ZORI 4.9% higher. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not observed asking rent, so proximity to ZORI is a benchmark comparison rather than confirmation of a market quote.
To create a size ladder, the ZIP ZORI is scaled using the shape of the local HUD bedroom schedule. The resulting modelled monthly estimates are $1,186 for a studio, $1,270 for a one-bedroom home, $1,427 for two bedrooms, $1,836 for three bedrooms, and $2,130 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD standards are $1,130, $1,210, $1,360, $1,750, and $2,030 across the same sequence. These ZIP figures are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. They preserve HUD’s relative spacing while anchoring the sequence to the blended asking-rent index; an actual listing can differ because its rent, utilities, concessions, condition, and lease terms are property-specific.
The income picture separates an arithmetic screen from observed household outcomes. ACS median household income is $60,826, with a ±$3,200 survey margin of error, and covers households generally rather than only current renters. The annual gross income required to hold the current index to 30% is $57,080; that is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Annualized asking rent equals 28.2% of the area median household income, but a median does not describe any particular applicant. Renters occupy 38.0% of occupied homes. Separately, 57.4% of renter households in the ACS burden tabulation spend at least the threshold share of income on gross rent. That burden result is an observed survey aggregate, not evidence about affordability for every listing or renter.
The matched ZCTA contains 35,807 housing units, of which 2,052 are vacant, producing an all-unit vacancy rate of 5.7%. The structure profile includes 20,402 single-family units and 1,507 units in large multifamily buildings; neither count is a direct measure of rental listings. Among selected vacancy statuses, 662 units are classified as for rent, 37 as for sale, and 58 as seasonal. Those categories do not exhaust all vacancies, and the for-rent count does not reveal readiness, asking price, bedroom count, condition, or whether a unit remains available. The vacancy evidence therefore describes stock composition and survey status, not the odds that a particular home can be leased.
The wider Zillow rent context is $2,408.80 for Chicago city, $2,336 for Cook County, and $2,275 for the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metro. In the separate ACS context, the rent-burden share is 48.3% for Chicago city and 48.9% for Cook County. Each value belongs to its named wider geography and is context only, not a substitute for the ZIP market or matched ZCTA. The distinctive pattern is that the ZIP asking-rent index is below all three broad rent contexts while its observed renter-burden share is above both available wider burden contexts. That combination does not identify a cause or establish that homes are equivalent across geographic scopes.
These results remain bounded by source design: Zillow summarizes observed asking rents across rental types, ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and the bedroom ladder is derived rather than observed. At the property level, confirm the exact address and geographic match, current advertised base rent, bedroom count, availability, lease term, concessions, deposits, recurring fees, and which utilities the tenant must pay. Reconstruct the all-in monthly cost before comparing a listing with the ACS gross-rent statistic. If a HUD benchmark matters, verify the applicable geography and bedroom category. Treat the required-income calculation only as a consistent arithmetic screen, not as underwriting guidance or evidence that a household will qualify.
","findings":[{"body":"The June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,427, below the city, county, and metro rent contexts supplied in the packet. That makes the ZIP comparatively lower on the asking-rent index, but ZORI blends rental types and does not represent a specific available property. Address-level rent, fees, utilities, concessions, size, and lease terms still require direct verification.","title":"Lower asking-rent index, but not a unit quote"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom sequence is created by applying the local HUD ladder to the ZIP ZORI. It is useful for consistent size comparisons, especially because the modelled spread widens for larger homes. These values are not measured bedroom rents. HUD figures remain administrative standards, while the modelled figures remain asking-rent estimates derived from a blended index.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from HUD spacing"},{"body":"The arithmetic required-income screen is $57,080, slightly below the ACS median household income of $60,826. That comparison does not resolve affordability: the income statistic covers households generally, while 57.4% of renter households in the ACS burden tabulation spend at least 30% of income on gross rent. The burden measure is survey evidence about occupied renter homes, not current listings.","title":"Resident burden is the sharper affordability signal"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA has a 5.7% all-unit vacancy rate and 662 units classified as vacant for rent. Neither figure measures immediately leasable inventory. Vacancy statuses may include homes with different sizes, conditions, prices, or readiness dates, while the all-unit rate includes vacancies unrelated to rental availability. A search decision therefore requires checking active listings rather than inferring supply from the aggregate alone.","title":"Vacancy count requires property-level filtering"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended asking-rent index can differ materially from a specific unit’s rent because bedroom count, property type, utilities, fees, concessions, and lease terms are not controlled here.","ACS rent, income, tenure, vacancy, and burden figures are five-year survey estimates with sampling uncertainty; small differences should not be treated as exact current-market distinctions.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from ZIP ZORI and HUD spacing, so using it as proof of observed studio or bedroom-specific rents would overstate the supplied evidence.","The all-unit vacancy rate and vacant-for-rent count do not establish that a suitable property is available, habitable, correctly priced, or accessible under a particular lease or screening process."],"qa":[{"a":"It is both a Zillow ZIP market label and the matched Census ZCTA used for survey statistics. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Exact-address coverage, listing location, and any applicable HUD geography should therefore be checked separately.","q":"What geography does 60629 represent in this report?"},{"a":"They measure different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Their values can be compared as benchmarks but should not be combined into one rent measure.","q":"Why are Zillow ZORI, ACS median gross rent, and HUD FMR different?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The method provides a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom sequence, but it does not observe actual bedroom-specific asking rents. Individual properties may differ because of type, condition, utilities, fees, concessions, and lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom rents direct observations from ZIP listings?"},{"a":"No. The figure simply annualizes the current monthly index and divides by the 30% screen. It is arithmetic, not advice, underwriting guidance, or an applicant qualification rule. Owners and managers may evaluate income, rent, fees, household circumstances, and other permitted criteria differently, none of which is measured in this packet.","q":"Does the required income establish whether an applicant will qualify?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":989.431983},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":985.505268},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":967.779618},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":955.439246},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":967.542307},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":989.221966},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1029.213094},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1036.632633},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1038.044368},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1029.776996},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1018.732186},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1034.416221},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1052.134186},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1078.522929},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1105.765874},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1125.553667},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1113.179915},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1108.940437},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1101.124613},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1130.813443},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1137.190726},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1139.118442},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1149.609576},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1138.17105},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1146.046899},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1143.439859},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1160.946797},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1168.551499},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1168.518415},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1156.749872},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1161.704451},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1157.764802},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1168.340303},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1186.167761},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1207.828318},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1223.634777},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1220.343251},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1237.643142},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1245.19269},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1262.053526},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1287.966175},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1305.959085},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1304.175898},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1287.667406},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1305.892228},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1326.472084},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1344.407887},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1335.343087},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1341.74934},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1354.012789},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1369.223991},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1373.410692},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1362.742399},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1375.683777},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1394.793867},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1422.482709},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1419.048768},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1410.511494},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1399.772425},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1417.204402},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1427.796511},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1424.374252},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1418.685827},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1418.64008},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1427.402778}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1362.742399,"endRent":1427.402778,"change":0.047448717415300656,"cagr":0.047448717415300656},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1168.518415,"endRent":1427.402778,"change":0.22154923677433014,"cagr":0.06898183543079184},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":967.542307,"endRent":1427.402778,"change":0.4752871969246093,"cagr":0.0808746085342551}},"maxDrawdown":-0.034355809781822955,"annualizedVolatility":0.0405599087282121,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}