The label 60651 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP. Its current Zillow ZORI is $1,760, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quote for a specific available home. A 30% required-income screen produces $70,400 in annual household income, above the ZCTA’s $54,409 median household income. At current asking rent, the arithmetic screen equals 38.8% of that median income; it is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence about any household’s actual lease terms.
The matched Census ZCTA ACS five-year survey describes occupied renter homes, not current listings. Its median gross rent is $1,264 and includes selected utilities, so it should not be treated as interchangeable with Zillow’s asking-rent index. The survey records 6,394 renter households spending at least 30% of income on rent, equal to 56.7% of renter households measured for burden. A 7.8% vacancy rate supplies an aggregate stock indicator, but does not establish that a particular rental is vacant, affordable, habitable, or available on a given date. The structure data include both single-family and larger multifamily housing, further limiting any single rent figure’s ability to describe a particular property format.
The local HUD ladder supplies an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,461 for a studio, $1,564 for a one-bedroom, $1,760 for a two-bedroom, $2,266 for a three-bedroom, and $2,623 for a four-bedroom. The HUD reference amounts behind the scale are $1,270, $1,360, $1,530, $1,970, and $2,280 in the same bedroom order. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents: actual listings can differ through utilities, condition, lease length, furnishing, concessions, building type, and availability.
Backward-looking Zillow history shows rent still rising, although recent movement is slower than the longer path. Exact same-month annualized change was 4.2% over one year, 5.7% over three years, and 7.4% over five years. Thus the current direction confirms continued growth but breaks from the stronger pace registered across the longer intervals. Coverage was 100%, supporting continuity of the record. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.8% means a current reading should be treated as an index snapshot rather than an unusually precise unit-level benchmark, while the largest observed peak-to-trough decline was 1.9%, a limited historical setback rather than a forecast. Transparent national discovery ranks were 401 for momentum, 1,274 for stability, and 354 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks stronger among history-eligible ZIPs.
Wider asking-rent context is materially higher: the City of Chicago scope reported $2,409, Cook County scope reported $2,336, and the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metro scope reported $2,275. Those city, county, and metro figures are context only, not substitutes for the ZIP’s direct rent index or local listing comparisons. They reinforce that the ZIP’s asking-rent level sits below each broader benchmark, while the ZIP income screen and renter-burden survey measures still indicate a separate affordability tension. Neither comparison identifies why the levels differ or predicts future rent movement.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation belongs entirely to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $389,912, up 4.0% year over year; 81 homes sold with a median 59 days on market. There were 187 active listings and inventory of 86 homes, with 3.2 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 100.64%, while 49.4% of sales closed above list and 44.6% went off market within two weeks. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is a 5.4% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Resale price growth and sale-to-list signals challenge a simple reading of slowing rent growth as a broad weakening signal, but they cannot establish rental economics for any home.
The central evidence tension is therefore clear: current asking rent is below wider-area rent context and the historical path remains positive, yet the arithmetic income screen exceeds the local median household-income measure and renter burden is elevated in the ACS universe. Vacancy and housing-stock data provide useful aggregate framing, but they do not prove the condition, tenant demand, expenses, or achievable rent of a particular unit. Similarly, the resale record can show ZIP-level transaction conditions without showing lease-up performance, operating costs, renovation requirements, taxes, insurance, or financing terms.
A property-level review should separately verify current asking rents for comparable bedroom counts, utility responsibility, concessions, lease timing, unit condition, occupancy status, and whether available listings match the property format under review. It should also test sale comparability by transaction date, property type, listing history, and whether the observed resale sample resembles the subject property. The decision-useful question is not whether one index settles value, but whether verified unit-level rent evidence and sale comparables remain consistent with the distinct ZIP, ZCTA survey, HUD, and resale measures presented here.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow ZIP asking-rent index produces a required-income screen above the matched ZCTA median household-income estimate. This is a meaningful affordability tension, but it remains arithmetic rather than a tenant qualification standard. ACS burden evidence supports concern at the aggregate renter-household level, while not proving that any specific available unit is unaffordable or occupied by a burdened renter.","title":"Affordability screen exceeds median income"},{"body":"The historical series indicates continued same-month rent growth, yet the shortest reported interval is weaker than the medium- and longer-term intervals. Complete history coverage improves confidence that the direction is observed rather than missing-data noise. Still, the variability measure means a single current ZORI reading is best used as a market benchmark, not as a precise estimate of a particular lease.","title":"Rent growth persists but has decelerated"},{"body":"Direct ZIP resale evidence shows rising median sold price, sale-to-list performance above parity, and a substantial share of homes selling above list. Those for-sale indicators provide a counterweight to the deceleration in recent asking-rent growth. They do not, however, convert into rental transaction evidence, operating income, property yield, or a conclusion about the economics of a specific investment property.","title":"Resale signals are firmer than the recent rent-growth pace"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures use the local HUD ladder to scale the ZIP-wide Zillow index. They are useful for maintaining a consistent bedroom relationship across the same ZIP, but HUD standards are administrative and not asking rents. Property-specific rent work should therefore verify bedroom count, utility treatment, concessions, unit condition, and contemporaneous comparable listings before relying on the modelled ladder.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates, not observed rents"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the rent, condition, utility package, concession structure, or lease terms of a particular available unit.","ACS results are multiyear survey estimates for occupied renter homes and include selected utilities in gross rent, creating a different universe from current advertised asking rents and available listings.","The HUD-scaled bedroom ladder is modelled rather than measured, so differences in building type, furnishing, maintenance, utility responsibility, and local listing mix can produce substantial unit-level variation.","Redfin resale measures describe completed for-sale transactions in a rolling ZIP sample; they cannot establish rental demand, vacancy for a subject property, operating expenses, financing costs, or net economics."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different housing universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a multiyear survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, lease status, utility treatment, and sampled housing mix can all create a difference.","q":"Why does the current asking-rent figure differ from the ACS gross-rent figure?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative standard, not a listing survey. The figures should guide relative bedroom sizing only until comparable current listings, lease terms, utilities, and condition are verified.","q":"Are the bedroom rent amounts actual observed rents for this ZIP?"},{"a":"The historical record shows positive same-month growth across every reported horizon, which supports a continuing upward path in the index. The shortest interval is below the longer intervals, however, so recent growth is slower than the established medium- and long-run pace. That is a backward-looking measurement, not a forecast.","q":"What does the rent history say about the current market direction?"},{"a":"No. Redfin’s ZIP resale observation reports for-sale transactions, listing conditions, and sale-to-list outcomes rather than rental leases or property operating results. Its relationship to Zillow asking rent is only a cross-source screening exercise. A property-level conclusion would require verified rents, expenses, unit comparables, and transaction-specific facts.","q":"Does the resale evidence show that rentals will perform well?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1216.49287},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1211.369628},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1220.338572},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1223.647998},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1257.157011},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1254.172978},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1255.562366},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1233.753715},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1254.181242},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1255.744968},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1278.120697},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1274.975146},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1286.904905},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1300.300141},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1312.053612},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1342.22334},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1338.617296},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1350.374189},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1342.397933},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1363.00644},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1357.193447},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1369.843327},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1375.32263},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1400.247972},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1416.151186},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1414.076323},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1414.084415},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1401.728087},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1414.090908},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1444.631574},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1475.535632},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1489.238931},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1491.821831},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1505.726352},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1511.21105},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1512.667926},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1517.225076},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1532.716543},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1536.810799},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1547.205871},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1561.322456},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1567.452454},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1571.515614},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1576.425401},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1585.622429},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1587.67444},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1588.874194},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1626.167604},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1638.570401},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1660.431268},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1671.177961},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1686.556744},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1682.563928},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1682.529328},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1689.389932},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1689.36939},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1702.319276},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1711.364982},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1726.451975},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1710.530479},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1714.68007},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1709.44861},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1718.310485},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1722.367518},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1734.867328},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1743.421085},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1748.03163},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1760.094841}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":68,"firstPeriod":"2020-11-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":68,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1689.36939,"endRent":1760.094841,"change":0.04186500088059497,"cagr":0.04186500088059497},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1489.238931,"endRent":1760.094841,"change":0.18187538907415246,"cagr":0.057281329431824624},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1233.753715,"endRent":1760.094841,"change":0.4266176625048703,"cagr":0.07364701084856207}},"maxDrawdown":-0.018616048588381062,"annualizedVolatility":0.028151410657829813,"consecutiveReturnCount":67}}