ZIP 61820’s current asking index sits below every supplied wider context, yet its affordability screen warrants a separate reading. At the June 2026 Zillow endpoint, Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is $1,213 per month, up 5.9% from the matching month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it establishes a market-level starting point rather than the price of a named unit. The supplied Champaign city context rent is $1,410, the Champaign County context rent is $1,345, and the Champaign-Urbana, IL metro context rent is $1,338. Each wider geography is context only; the ZIP reading sits below all three, but that comparison cannot identify lease terms, unit mix, or a renter’s actual payment.
The direct ZIP ZORI path behind the current figure has been consistently upward, rather than showing a new reversal: exact same-month annualized changes were 5.9% over one year, 5.4% over three years, and 6.8% over five years. Thus the recent direction confirms the longer growth path, although it is slower than the five-year annualized pace. Across 66 monthly observations, supplied coverage is 100%; annualized monthly-return variability was 2.3% and maximum drawdown was -1.1%. National discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 200 for momentum, 406 for stability, and 39 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks indicating higher placement. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The relatively contained historical variability lends more confidence to this ZIP-level snapshot than a highly erratic series would, but it does not validate any individual quote.
Different rent universes explain why nearby-looking benchmarks should not be merged. The matched Census ZCTA in the ACS 2024 five-year survey reports $1,108 median gross rent from occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is not an asking-rent index. The ZORI reading is 9.5% higher than that survey median. The same five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The supplied FY2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,122, placing ZORI 8.1% above it. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so neither comparison establishes the advertised price for a particular two-bedroom.
Bedroom sizing can be useful only if treated as a modeling exercise. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the supplied local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,017 for a studio, $1,023 for one bedroom, $1,213 for two bedrooms, $1,552 for three bedrooms, and $1,607 for four bedrooms. The associated HUD ladder runs from $941 for a studio to $1,486 for four bedrooms. These estimates preserve the local HUD relative-size pattern while anchoring the level to ZIP ZORI; they do not show separate observed asking rents, utilities, fees, condition, or availability for those unit types.
Affordability presents the sharper counterweight to the lower context index. Applying the 30% screen arithmetically to that monthly asking index yields $48,520 in required annual gross income. That screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Against the ACS ZCTA median household income of $27,539, the annualized asking-rent-to-income comparison is 52.9%; it is a broad ratio, not a tenant budget calculation. The ACS survey also counts 6,706 of 12,889 renter-occupied households as paying gross rent equal to or above the same threshold, or 52.0%. This burden evidence is aggregate and cannot demonstrate affordability, qualification, or hardship for any named household or unit.
Housing counts show a substantial vacancy signal but not a live inventory. The ACS ZCTA has 19,136 housing units, including 3,103 vacant units, a 16.2% vacancy rate; 1,470 vacant units are classified for rent. The structure counts report 8,351 units in large multifamily buildings and 4,483 single-family units, showing that both categories contribute to the stock measured here. These are area-wide survey counts rather than verified listings. They cannot show which units are available now, their asking rents, their condition, application criteria, or whether a vacancy is marketable to a particular renter.
Use the figures as scoped comparisons, not interchangeable property facts. Their reporting windows and construction differ: Zillow tracks an observed asking-rent index, ACS describes surveyed occupied renter homes, and HUD sets an administrative standard. ACS sampling uncertainty further limits fine distinctions. For any candidate property, check that the address falls in the applicable Zillow ZIP and HUD geography, then verify the actual advertised base rent, bedroom count, included utilities, recurring and one-time fees, concessions, availability date, and lease term. Compare the unit’s stated terms with the appropriate benchmark only after those facts are known. What does the property-specific quote reveal that the aggregate ZIP data cannot?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP 61820’s $1,213 Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, not a unit quote. The 5.9% same-month increase places current direction upward. The Champaign city context rent is $1,410, Champaign County context rent is $1,345, and Champaign-Urbana, IL metro context rent is $1,338. Those wider scopes provide comparison only and should not replace ZIP-level evidence.","title":"Current index sits below wider context"},{"body":"The matched-month history rose at annualized rates of 5.9%, 5.4%, and 6.8% across one-, three-, and five-year horizons. Its annualized monthly-return volatility was 2.3%, and maximum drawdown was -1.1%. Complete supplied coverage contains 66 observations. This is a backward-looking ZIP index record, so it informs confidence in the current aggregate reading but does not forecast future rent.","title":"History is positive with limited measured disruption"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent of $1,108 is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow ZORI captures typical observed asking rents. The HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,122 and is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The bedroom figures supplied here are modelled by scaling ZORI with the HUD ladder; they are not measured bedroom rents.","title":"Rent benchmarks answer different questions"},{"body":"Applying the 30% arithmetic screen to current ZORI yields $48,520 in annual required income, while the ACS ZCTA median household income is $27,539. Gross-rent burden reaches 6,706 of 12,889 renter households. Separately, the ZCTA vacancy rate is 16.2%, with 1,470 units classified vacant for rent. Neither burden nor vacancy confirms affordability, availability, or price for a particular listing.","title":"Aggregate pressure and vacancy require unit checks"}],"risks":["The index is blended across rental types, so a property’s quoted base rent, recurring fees, utilities, concessions, bedroom count, availability, and lease term can differ materially from the ZIP aggregate at the reporting endpoint.","The ACS ZCTA is a statistical survey geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its occupied-home, utility-inclusive median gross rent should not be treated as current asking rent.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard and the bedroom ladder is modelled from it; neither verifies the asking rent or eligibility terms of a specific apartment.","Vacancy and rent-burden statistics are ZCTA-wide aggregates from a different evidence universe; they cannot establish that a given unit is vacant, affordable, habitable, or offered under comparable terms."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,213 Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It summarizes an aggregate market reading at the stated endpoint, rather than a quoted amount for a named address. It does not separately establish a unit’s bedroom configuration, utilities, fees, availability, concessions, lease duration, or applicant terms.","q":"What does the current Zillow reading measure?"},{"a":"They measure different universes. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard set by bedroom size. The matched ZCTA is a statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP. Differences do not independently identify a pricing error, trend cause, or the rent of a particular available home.","q":"Why can the ACS, ZORI, and HUD figures differ?"},{"a":"The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD ladder. They preserve a relative bedroom-size pattern, but they are not measured bedroom rents or direct listing observations. Before comparing a unit, confirm its actual bedroom count, base rent, included utilities, fees, concessions, availability, and lease terms.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be used?"},{"a":"It establishes area-wide ACS ZCTA conditions, not outcomes for an individual property or household. The burden share describes surveyed renter households paying gross rent at or above the stated threshold, while vacancy classifies housing units at the survey level. Check an address’s geography and the current listing details before concluding that a specific home is available or affordable.","q":"What does the burden and vacancy evidence establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":845.447775},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":854.96956},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":860.509744},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":869.736781},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":873.028539},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":871.416499},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":888.38462},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":902.149983},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":899.538314},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":894.932804},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":910.179911},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":914.00916},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":929.496287},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":925.796743},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":947.095478},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":953.11296},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":963.871857},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":973.478738},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":973.398839},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":985.150142},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":989.535434},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":992.095677},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":990.812894},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1003.782177},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1017.168678},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1030.27863},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1031.648428},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1040.358018},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1032.892304},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1035.203461},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1034.766542},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1038.531053},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1041.408224},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1047.214759},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1042.242535},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1050.359957},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1061.900808},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1077.862725},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1077.170799},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1073.621838},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1087.04485},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1097.026847},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1106.231894},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1104.912899},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1114.170945},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1119.790008},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1134.884719},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1135.391646},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1138.985574},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1126.880724},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1133.648638},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1136.01483},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1143.405297},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1145.090158},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1149.886138},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1158.15367},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1160.809996},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1165.24962},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1168.177257},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1173.052943},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1173.551329},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1184.95779},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1192.288232},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1203.713499},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1205.945402},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1212.631387}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1145.090158,"endRent":1212.631387,"change":0.05898332854241506,"cagr":0.05898332854241506},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1035.203461,"endRent":1212.631387,"change":0.1713942550275147,"cagr":0.054146642658998934},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":871.416499,"endRent":1212.631387,"change":0.39156349276329205,"cagr":0.068318146319571}},"maxDrawdown":-0.01062774654598031,"annualizedVolatility":0.022979587002526388,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}