In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 61821 is $1,450 per month, a 6.8% year-over-year increase. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a rent quote for a defined unit. The current ZIP reading is above the Zillow asking-rent context for Champaign city at $1,410, Champaign County at $1,345, and the Champaign-Urbana, IL metro at $1,338; those city, county, and metro figures are wider-area context, not substitutes for ZIP evidence. That spread is the starting tension: the ZIP’s current asking-rent snapshot is higher than every named comparison, but it does not establish a particular property’s achievable rent or lease terms.
That index is not interchangeable with the Census result. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,031 among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The Zillow asking index is 40.6% above that survey median. Neither figure invalidates the other: one represents current typical observed asks across types, whereas the other describes surveyed occupied rental homes over a multi-year period. The gap should not be read as a current lease premium for any given unit.
To provide a bedroom frame without pretending there are direct bedroom observations, ZIP ZORI is scaled by the local HUD ladder. The resulting modelled monthly estimates are $1,216 for a studio, $1,223 for one bedroom, $1,450 for two bedrooms, $1,856 for three bedrooms, and $1,920 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,122; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Thus the ladder distributes the blended asking-rent index by relative bedroom standard, not as a set of ZIP asking-rent comparables or a statement about a unit’s size, condition, or utility billing.
The affordability screen has a separate purpose from market pricing. At the 30% screen, current annualized asking rent translates to $58,000 in annual household income. This is arithmetic—annual rent divided by the screen share—not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Matched-ZCTA ACS median household income is $70,715, making the simple asking-rent-to-income screen 24.6%. Separately, 46.3% of occupied renter households in the ZCTA reported spending at or above the threshold on rent. In wider context, Champaign city’s renter-burden share is 57.0% and Champaign County’s is 54.2%; those are city and county context, respectively. Burden measures household outcomes, so neither this screen nor the burden share proves affordability for a particular applicant or unit.
The matched ZCTA contains 13,441 housing units. Its ACS vacancy rate is 7.7%, its renter share among occupied homes is 39%, and 378 vacant units are classified for rent. The aggregate structural mix is more single-family than large-multifamily, which describes stock categories rather than property condition or an availability promise. For wider context, the Champaign city vacancy rate is 10.9% and the Champaign County rate is 10.1%; neither context rate replaces the matched-ZCTA reading. An aggregate for-rent vacancy count does not verify that a similarly priced unit, bedroom count, lease term, or location is currently available, and it does not say why any unit is vacant.
The history through the stated endpoint is a backward-looking measurement, not a forecast or investment recommendation. Exact same-month annualized asking-rent changes were 6.8% over one year, 8.1% over three years, and 8.0% over five years. The latest pace is below the medium- and long-horizon rates but remains positive, so it slows the longer upward path rather than breaks from it. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.4%, maximum peak-to-trough drawdown was 2.3%, and coverage was 98.8%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 83 for momentum, 2,172 for stability, and 567 for balanced; lower rank is higher, and these are discovery labels rather than outlooks. The high coverage improves visibility into the past, while observed variability and drawdown mean one current asking-rent snapshot merits bounded confidence.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is a different, for-sale universe. It reports a $224,949 median sold price, up 9.7% year over year, with 145 homes sold, 39 median days on market, 115 homes of inventory, and 2.4 months of supply. Inventory was 59.8% above its year-earlier level. Sale-to-list signals were a 99.3% average sale-to-list ratio and 34.1% of sales above list. These are resale observations, not rental transactions or property economics. The price gain is directionally consistent with the rising asking-rent history, while the inventory expansion challenges a one-way reading from rent evidence alone. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 7.7%, only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
These sources are most useful when their limits stay explicit. Zillow’s index does not settle the rent, concession, utility treatment, or availability of one address; ACS has survey uncertainty and occupied-home scope; HUD does not measure asking rent; and Redfin does not link a sale to a lease. Relevant property-level checks are the actual advertised rent and concessions, legal bedroom classification, utilities billed, lease length, availability date, condition, and recent comparable asking-rent observations. For a resale comparison, the pertinent checks are sale date, property type, condition, seller or financing concessions, and list-history details. No source here proves that an aggregate vacancy or renter-burden result applies to a particular unit. Which property-specific lease and resale facts would materially change the reading?
","findings":[{"body":"Current Zillow ZORI is materially above the ACS median gross-rent reading, but the difference is principally one of evidence universe. ZORI tracks observed asking rents across types, while ACS represents occupied renter homes and selected utilities over a survey period. Treat the comparison as a boundary around interpretation, not as a rent comp or property-level premium.","title":"Current asking rent versus survey rent"},{"body":"Each studio-to-four-bedroom figure is a modelled monthly estimate generated by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The sequence can frame relative bedroom size, but it does not measure achieved or advertised bedroom-specific rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is administrative and bedroom-specific, so its role is scaling rather than direct market-rent verification.","title":"Bedroom estimates are scaling outputs"},{"body":"The backward-looking record remains positive across every supplied same-month horizon, yet the latest annualized change trails both longer-horizon rates. Its volatility and maximum drawdown show that historical movement remains relevant to a point-in-time snapshot. Strong coverage supports historical comparison, while the transparent ranks are discovery measures rather than a forecast, investment recommendation, or judgment of property quality.","title":"Growth has persisted but the latest pace eased"},{"body":"Direct ZIP resale data show a price increase while inventory also increased. That alignment partly supports the positive rent direction, but the inventory movement argues against a one-signal reading. Median sale price, selling pace, supply, and sale-to-list measures describe for-sale transactions only; the rent-to-price figure remains a cross-source screening ratio.","title":"Resale data do not become rental economics"}],"risks":["Zillow’s current asking-rent index blends rental types and does not identify unit size, condition, concessions, utility billing, lease duration, or signed rent; applying it directly to a particular listing can misstate its relevant asking-rent evidence.","ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes in a ZCTA, with a multi-year reference period and selected utilities in gross rent; it neither describes fresh listings nor matches USPS delivery geography exactly.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit the blended ZORI and HUD ladder assumptions; they cannot prove market clearing rents, vacancy, or availability for a specific bedroom type, building, condition level, or lease structure.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP evidence measures for-sale and resale activity, not rental transactions, operating expenses, financing, or tenant demand. Even the cross-source rent-to-price calculation cannot establish a property’s income, valuation, net return, or expected performance."],"qa":[{"a":"The current Zillow figure is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for a current market-level snapshot, but it does not identify a specific home’s bedroom count, lease duration, concession, utility treatment, condition, availability, or signed rent. It should therefore remain separate from survey rent and HUD standards.","q":"What does the current Zillow number measure?"},{"a":"ZCTA alignment provides a Census statistical-area match for ACS tabulations, not a geographic assertion about USPS delivery service. ACS reports a multi-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities in gross rent. Consequently, it can contextualize the ZIP index, but it cannot be treated as a current inventory, listing, or lease dataset.","q":"Why does the ZCTA label matter for this report?"},{"a":"No. Bedroom amounts are modelled by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the blended ZIP ZORI, so they represent relative scaling estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. The required-income amount simply annualizes the index and applies the stated share of income. It is an arithmetic comparison, not a recommendation, underwriting result, or qualification standard.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts and required-income figure observed market rents?"},{"a":"It adds direct ZIP for-sale information but does not convert that information into rental evidence. The resale price movement is directionally aligned with the rent history, while added inventory supplies an offsetting signal. Days on market, sales count, supply, and sale-to-list indicators describe resale liquidity; the rent-to-price screen is not a cap rate or property yield.","q":"How does the resale block change the rent interpretation?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":926.863027},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":920.639253},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":924.958634},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":928.449472},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":930.206915},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":929.410508},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":932.295593},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":933.53234},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":939.592182},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":948.64367},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":956.683034},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":954.339342},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":962.333801},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":951.665668},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":955.35475},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":965.253025},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":981.495095},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":988.284096},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":990.21693},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":988.88387},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1003.033975},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1005.734725},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1002.98582},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1017.724028},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1032.696638},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1069.126717},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1090.484378},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1093.490273},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1092.525196},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1090.1693},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1094.28144},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1095.85765},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1089.109952},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1094.231696},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1098.957239},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1093.501236},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1096.849026},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1095.479307},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1110.423805},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1114.840954},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1124.21993},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1140.158626},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1148.850415},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1152.180169},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1152.895765},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1169.012322},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1187.372345},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1181.89714},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1186.284693},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1183.163497},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1197.0727},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1192.605408},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1206.206778},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1204.818906},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1239.557919},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1262.737213},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1291.954937},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1280.285986},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1262.240268},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1271.189215},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1313.956753},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1337.920158},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1322.440613},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1327.332405},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1345.844882},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1363.76267},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1357.391834},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1360.215483},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1357.452523},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1379.01031},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1406.499417},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1423.040013},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1405.857982},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1407.209606},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1430.5069},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1448.558152},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1443.983558},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1446.420146},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1449.833333}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":79,"firstPeriod":"2019-11-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":80,"coverageRatio":0.9875,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1357.391834,"endRent":1449.833333,"change":0.06810229491921338,"cagr":0.06810229491921338},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1148.850415,"endRent":1449.833333,"change":0.26198616814705145,"cagr":0.08064952017412974},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":988.88387,"endRent":1449.833333,"change":0.46613103619538254,"cagr":0.07952960636184958}},"maxDrawdown":-0.022999772011397912,"annualizedVolatility":0.034343351851475495,"consecutiveReturnCount":77}}