For 64093, the central tension is a cooling observed asking-rent path alongside a materially stronger direct resale price reading. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is $1,043 per month. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease quote for a specified property, unit size, or utility package. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so geographic matching improves comparability but does not make each underlying evidence universe the same.
Zillow’s same-month rent history shows increases of 2.37% over one year, 4.60% annualized over three years, and 5.13% annualized over five years. The recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the stronger longer-run rent path: the index remains higher than a year earlier, but its latest gain is slower. History coverage is 100%, with annualized monthly-return variability of 2.21% and a maximum drawdown of 1.06%. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower rank is higher, are 859 for momentum, 302 for stability, and 248 for the balanced measure. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The observed variability and drawdown provide context for the current snapshot, but an index reading remains less precise than a current quote for a particular available rental.
Different rent sources answer different questions. The ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched ZCTA reports median gross rent of $899 among occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities, and Zillow’s index is 16.0% above that survey median. The local HUD FY 2026 two-bedroom FMR is $965, with the Zillow index 8.1% above that administrative standard. HUD FMR or SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $875 for a studio, $881 for one bedroom, $1,043 for two bedrooms, $1,450 for three bedrooms, and $1,750 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
An arithmetic income screen based on the current Zillow index produces annual gross income of $41,720 at the 30% threshold. The matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $61,094, but that all-household measure should not be treated as the income of an actual renter or applicant. The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS estimates that 2,068 of 4,989 renter households were rent burdened at 30% or more of income, a 41.5% share. That burden result is a survey estimate with sampling uncertainty and describes renter households collectively; it does not establish affordability, payment history, or conditions for any particular tenant or unit.
The matched ZCTA’s housing stock offers a separate view of rental supply context. Of 11,743 housing units, 7,710 are single-family, with the balance in other structure types. There are 707 vacant units, a 6.0% vacancy rate, including 131 units classified as vacant for rent. Renter occupancy accounts for 45.2% of occupied homes. These figures describe aggregate stock composition and vacancy categories rather than a live listing inventory. In particular, the vacant-for-rent count does not demonstrate that a specific unit is currently available, appropriately sized, competitively priced, in a given condition, or offered on particular lease terms.
For wider context only, the City of Warrensburg context rent is $1,042.63, the Johnson County context rent is $1,027, and the Warrensburg, MO metro context rent matches the county figure. The city context also has a higher renter share and reported rent burden than the matched ZCTA, while the county context has a higher vacancy rate and the metro context reports a lower rent-to-income relationship. These city, county, and metro figures are broader geographic context, not replacements for the direct ZIP Zillow index, the matched ZCTA survey estimates, or the ZIP resale observation. They help identify where 64093 sits within nearby aggregates, without establishing that any address follows the aggregate pattern.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is in a different market universe: it records a median sold price of $284,686, up 10.77% year over year. The same resale record shows 135 homes sold, median marketing time of 31 days, inventory of 115 homes, 2.6 months of supply, and an average sale-to-list relationship of 97.66%. Every one of these is a for-sale market signal, not a rental transaction or rental comparable. The resale price increase is in tension with the slower recent Zillow rent growth and challenges any simple extension of the cooling rent history into the resale market. It also means the income arithmetic for asking rent should not be mistaken for a description of resale-market conditions.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price produces a 4.4% cross-source screening ratio only. It combines a typical asking-rent index with a median resale price and does not measure property-specific operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, concessions, lease-up timing, or realized transaction terms. Address-level interpretation requires current comparable asking rents by actual bedroom count, the offered lease rent and included utilities, concessions, availability, property type, physical condition, recent relevant sale evidence, and any ownership costs not represented here. The key unresolved question is whether the specific property’s current lease and physical facts align with these aggregate rental, survey, administrative, and resale signals.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s same-month rent index rose 2.37% over one year, compared with annualized gains of 4.60% over three years and 5.13% over five years. That is a measurable cooling pattern, not a forecast. Full history coverage, 2.21% annualized variability, and a 1.06% maximum drawdown provide useful context, but the current figure remains an index rather than a property-specific quote.","title":"Recent rent growth has cooled relative to the longer path"},{"body":"The $1,043 Zillow reading is a typical observed asking-rent index, while ACS reports $899 median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The HUD two-bedroom standard is $965 and is administrative rather than an asking-rent observation. The bedroom ladder is modelled from Zillow and HUD relationships, so it helps organize unit-size assumptions without reporting measured rents for each bedroom count.","title":"Asking rent, survey rent, and HUD standards are not interchangeable"},{"body":"Annualizing the current Zillow index at a 30% threshold produces $41,720 of required gross income, below the matched ZCTA’s $61,094 median household income. Yet ACS estimates that 41.5% of renter households are burdened at 30% or more of income. The measures have different denominators and populations, so neither result determines whether a particular renter can qualify for or sustain a particular lease.","title":"Aggregate income arithmetic is more favorable than the burden survey alone suggests"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a $284,686 median sold price and a 10.77% annual increase, while Zillow rent growth has slowed to 2.37%. Sales activity, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list measures describe the for-sale market only. The 4.4% annualized-rent-to-price calculation is useful solely as a cross-source screen; it does not convert resale evidence into rental economics for an individual property.","title":"Resale evidence is firmer than the recent rent-growth signal"}],"risks":["The ZCTA survey geography overlaps the ZIP label but is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS estimates carry sampling uncertainty affecting rents, incomes, burden, occupancy, and vacancy.","The 6.0% vacancy figure and 131 units classified as vacant for rent are aggregate survey counts; they do not establish current availability, concession terms, condition, or suitability of any particular unit.","Bedroom figures are modelled by applying the local HUD ladder to Zillow’s blended asking-rent index. They are not measured rents and may not match actual unit mix, utilities, amenities, or lease structure.","Redfin resale signals concern closed home sales and listing conditions, while Zillow concerns asking rent. Their combined screening ratio omits property-specific expenses, financing, taxes, repairs, and transaction timing."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow’s $1,043 figure is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS’s $899 figure is a 2024 five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD’s $965 two-bedroom figure is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Different timing, populations, geography, and rent definitions make disagreement expected rather than evidence that one source is incorrect.","q":"Why does Zillow’s rent differ from ACS median gross rent and HUD’s two-bedroom standard?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP Zillow index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are intended to provide a consistent size-based framework, not to report measured asking rents, executed leases, or unit-specific offers. Actual rents can differ because of property type, condition, utilities, availability, lease terms, and concessions.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual observed rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"The $41,720 figure is arithmetic: it annualizes the current Zillow asking-rent index and divides it by 30%. It is not lending guidance, tenant advice, or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden statistic separately reports the share of renter households spending at least 30% of income on rent, and it cannot determine the finances of a specific household.","q":"What does the 30% required-income calculation mean?"},{"a":"Redfin provides a direct ZIP observation of the for-sale market, including sold price, price change, sales count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. It identifies a resale pattern that is stronger than the recent rent-growth pattern, creating a useful cross-market tension. It does not provide rental transactions, rental comparables, or property-specific operating facts, so it must remain separate from the asking-rent evidence.","q":"What does the Redfin resale data add to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":774.203403},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":777.671191},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":769.769149},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":775.734978},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":790.63489},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":807.59178},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":811.972369},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":807.040246},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":815.841427},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":811.96189},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":818.281531},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":816.793358},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":821.253166},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":828.734468},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":841.601446},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":853.347396},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":854.408103},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":854.224665},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":856.554061},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":861.989129},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":861.205503},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":876.840055},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":885.027693},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":896.994746},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":897.452728},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":904.822476},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":907.657661},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":905.267334},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":903.377882},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":907.352973},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":911.133877},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":918.581108},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":922.150152},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":926.184321},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":929.242562},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":927.704959},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":936.2991},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":934.577765},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":942.993702},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":946.339244},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":957.768609},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":958.833747},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":962.37562},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":965.624377},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":967.243189},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":976.360767},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":979.144963},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":990.192111},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":985.365628},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":987.142282},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":984.630418},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":990.998595},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":994.578714},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1003.123195},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1018.490388},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1022.323534},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1030.144936},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1028.068033},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1032.498773},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1031.87911},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1040.474035},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1047.204005},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1052.349264},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1053.759821},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1052.85085},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1051.443071},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1042.631481}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1018.490388,"endRent":1042.631481,"change":0.023702818685805704,"cagr":0.023702818685805704},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":911.133877,"endRent":1042.631481,"change":0.14432303234401633,"cagr":0.045962737646041196},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":811.972369,"endRent":1042.631481,"change":0.2840726123280186,"cagr":0.05127882436682607}},"maxDrawdown":-0.010560603828526749,"annualizedVolatility":0.022104690903997047,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}