Resale evidence supplies the first tension in 64131. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 30, 2026, median sale price was $291,934, down 7.5% from a year earlier. The same for-sale record logged 102 homes sold, a median 20 days on market, inventory of 60 homes, and 1.8 months of supply. Its average sale-to-list ratio was 99.87%. These are direct ZIP resale observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables: together they describe direct ZIP resale liquidity, available for-sale inventory, and pricing signals in the for-sale market only. The negative price change exists alongside reported turnover, marketing-time, and supply readings; those resale indicators are separate evidence rather than a conclusion about rental property economics.
On the rental side, Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,277. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease ledger, an available-unit count, or an advertised rent for any one dwelling. For wider context only, the Kansas City city context rent is $1,444, the Jackson County context rent is $1,434, and the Kansas City, MO-KS metro context rent is $1,545. Each comparison names a broader scope and is not a substitute for the ZIP index. The current asking-rent reading sits below all three context values, a useful scale comparison but not an explanation of differences in any particular listing.
Different rent universes put the current reading in perspective without making them interchangeable. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched ZCTA reports an ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent of $1,168 for occupied renter homes. That survey measure includes selected utilities and is not a current asking-rent index. HUD’s supplied FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,400; it is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Zillow’s ZIP asking index is therefore above the ACS gross-rent median but below the HUD two-bedroom standard, without turning either benchmark into a quoted market rent.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than measured. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,031 for a studio, $1,122 for one bedroom, $1,277 for two bedrooms, $1,660 for three bedrooms, and $1,979 for four bedrooms. This preserves the ZIP-wide ZORI as the base and uses the local HUD ladder only to express bedroom relationships. It does not establish observed studio, one-, two-, three-, or four-bedroom asking rents, and it must not be read as a set of lease comparables. The HUD FMR/SAFMR inputs remain administrative standards even when they are used in this scaling exercise.
At the ZIP-wide screen, annualizing the index and applying a 30% share gives required income of $51,080, against a ZCTA median household income of $64,201; the simple asking-rent-to-income screen is 23.9%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. It also does not tell us a renter’s actual income, because the cited median covers households rather than individual applications. In the ACS renter-household survey universe, 2,306 of 4,886 renter households, or 47.2%, reported paying at least that share of income for rent. Burden is a population measure with survey uncertainty; it is not proof that a particular available unit is affordable or burdensome.
Housing stock and vacancy frame the renter base, but neither is a unit-availability feed. The ZCTA has 11,108 housing units and a 10.8% overall vacancy rate; that rate covers all vacancy categories, not just homes marketed for rent. Its structure mix includes 6,973 single-family units and 1,037 units in large multifamily buildings, showing that the stock measure spans multiple structure types. These ACS counts describe the matched statistical area and do not show a particular property’s condition, landlord terms, current vacancy, or rental readiness. Area-wide vacancy should therefore not be used as evidence that a specific home is available.
The asking-rent history supplies a different time-scale tension. In direct Zillow ZIP ZORI observations through June 1, 2026, exact same-month annualized change was 2.3% over one year, 3.9% over three years, and 6.0% over five years. The recent direction remains positive but is slower than both longer windows, so it breaks from the earlier faster growth path rather than confirming it. Annualized volatility in monthly ZORI changes was 3.2%, which warrants measured confidence in a single current rent snapshot and makes current-listing checks important. The largest peak-to-trough retreat was 2.5%, a separate reminder that the series did not rise in a straight line. Coverage is complete. In transparent national history-eligible ZIP discovery ranks, the momentum rank was 989, the stability rank was 1,886, and the balanced rank was 1,368; lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Cross-source synthesis should stay modest. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price is a 5.25% cross-source screening ratio only, not a measure of property-level economics or performance. The positive but slowing asking-rent history contrasts with the resale price decline in Redfin’s direct window, challenging any simple claim that an income screen or rent path resolves property economics; the resale turnover figures neither confirm rental demand nor provide rental comps. A property-level review would need to verify the exact current asking rent, bedroom configuration, lease term, concessions, included utilities, fees, condition, availability date, and truly comparable current listings. It would also need to distinguish ACS gross rent from a quoted rent and direct resale transactions from any rental evidence. Which of those property facts materially changes the current screen?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow places the ZIP’s June 2026 typical asking-rent index at $1,277, below the wider Kansas City city, Jackson County, and Kansas City metro context rents supplied in the packet. This establishes a relative pricing scale only. The Zillow figure blends rental types and does not state what any specified available apartment, house, or lease actually commands.","title":"Current asking rent is below broader context"},{"body":"The ACS median gross rent is a five-year ZCTA survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD’s bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index. The fact that their figures differ is expected from their distinct populations, dates, geographic scopes, and measurement purposes.","title":"ACS, HUD, and Zillow answer different rent questions"},{"body":"The required-income calculation compares annualized ZIP ZORI with the ZCTA’s median household income using a 30% arithmetic screen. Separately, ACS reports the share of renter households paying at least that portion of income for rent. The first is a broad ratio, while the second is a survey-based population burden measure; neither establishes an individual applicant’s ability to pay.","title":"Income screen and burden measure different things"},{"body":"Redfin reports a direct rolling resale observation for the ZIP, including a lower median sold price than one year earlier alongside observed sales, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list data. Those indicators describe for-sale transactions only. They can frame a cross-source tension with rent history, but they do not measure rental transactions, lease terms, or property-level rental economics.","title":"Resale activity does not substitute for rental evidence"}],"risks":["Because the Census ZCTA is a statistical area and not a USPS delivery ZIP, geographic mismatch can affect comparisons among ZIP-level ZORI, ZCTA survey estimates, and broader context metrics.","Zillow’s current index and historical series are asking-rent measurements, while ACS is a five-year occupied-home survey and HUD is an administrative standard; apparent gaps are not transaction-level discrepancies.","Bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the supplied HUD ladder. They are useful for a standardized screen but cannot replace observed same-bedroom asking-rent comparables.","Area-wide vacancy and renter-burden estimates describe populations and housing stock, not a specified unit. They cannot establish current availability, concessions, utility responsibility, condition, or affordability for a particular household."],"qa":[{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI instead tracks a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Their geography, timing, included costs, and underlying populations differ, so the ACS figure is context rather than a current listing quote.","q":"Why cannot the ACS rent figure be treated as a current asking-rent quote?"},{"a":"The bedroom values are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI using the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. The calculation preserves ZORI as the overall rent base and applies HUD bedroom relationships to it. It does not observe leases, advertisements, concessions, or completed rental transactions for any bedroom category.","q":"How were the bedroom rent figures formed?"},{"a":"The required-income figure is the arithmetic result of annualizing the ZIP ZORI and applying a 30% rent-to-income screen. It is not advice, a credit standard, a lease-underwriting rule, or an applicant qualification test. The local median household income is a population statistic and cannot identify the income, expenses, or eligibility of a particular renter.","q":"What does the required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"No. Redfin’s figures are a direct rolling-three-month observation of ZIP for-sale and resale activity, including sold prices, sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. They are not rental comps or rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and does not establish property-level performance or economics.","q":"Does the Redfin sale-price information determine rental value?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":910.039628},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":899.167352},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":910.095709},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":927.842808},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":938.912516},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":947.531686},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":941.725481},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":953.549297},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":953.381403},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":964.225388},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":969.428816},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":976.596845},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":989.191214},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1008.644134},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1008.379967},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1009.163485},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1006.615977},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1020.06211},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1031.359075},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1045.407189},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1060.7604},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1082.704587},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1092.289597},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1090.726673},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1090.70912},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1097.961784},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1111.782037},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1121.217716},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1119.148532},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1124.508529},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1130.597164},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1138.355103},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1133.616371},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1130.499963},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1139.181864},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1162.925458},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1178.556716},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1174.859452},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1172.084209},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1170.849753},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1199.355394},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1198.240766},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1203.723306},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1196.874935},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1202.53414},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1207.345074},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1210.492177},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1222.768806},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1233.2782},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1215.227156},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1220.338621},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1202.372008},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1225.00816},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1228.197506},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1245.881214},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1248.861578},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1255.915169},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1260.689487},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1263.306866},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1253.098436},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1247.70145},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1271.427924},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1276.155571},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1298.718369},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1275.781426},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1280.977714},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1270.837528},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1277.357143}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":68,"firstPeriod":"2020-11-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":68,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1248.861578,"endRent":1277.357143,"change":0.02281723251157608,"cagr":0.02281723251157608},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1138.355103,"endRent":1277.357143,"change":0.12210780241918928,"cagr":0.039149885424622166},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":953.549297,"endRent":1277.357143,"change":0.3395816524837729,"cagr":0.06021474064015053}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02506019485303468,"annualizedVolatility":0.03176159815779659,"consecutiveReturnCount":67}}