For Springfield, Missouri’s 65807 rental-market label, the decision question is how to frame a current typical asking-rent signal while avoiding a false claim that it describes every available home. Zillow ZORI for June 2026 is $1,277 per month, up 1.04% year over year. This is Zillow’s ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types; it is neither a quoted lease offer nor a bedroom-specific measurement. The five-digit 65807 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the label supports comparison but does not make the underlying geographies interchangeable.
The current index must remain separate from the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey. ACS reports a $1,054 median gross rent among occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities. That historical survey measure is 21.2% below the current Zillow index, but the gap reflects differences in definition, coverage, and timing rather than a direct measure of market change or a correction to either figure. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR is $1,095, and the Zillow index is 16.6% higher. HUD FMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so it should not be merged with either Zillow or ACS.
The bedroom question is best handled as a transparent model, not as a reading of observed bedroom rents. The local HUD ladder runs from $877 for a studio and $883 for one bedroom to $1,095 for two bedrooms, $1,498 for three, and $1,701 for four. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,023, $1,030, $1,277, $1,747, and $1,984, respectively. These estimates preserve the ladder’s relative bedroom pattern while anchoring its level to ZORI. They are modelled estimates only: they do not establish what a particular studio, one-bedroom, or larger unit is currently asking, and they remain distinct from HUD’s administrative standards.
Housing and vacancy figures add composition rather than a listing count. The ZCTA contains 28,475 housing units, of which 1,287 are vacant, a 4.5% vacancy rate. Of those vacancies, 475 are classified for rent, 112 are for sale, and 104 are seasonal. The stock also includes 17,834 single-family units and 4,198 large-multifamily units. These categories describe aggregate survey inventory, not the number, condition, location, rent, or move-in timing of homes presently offered. Neither the vacancy rate nor the for-rent count demonstrates availability of a particular unit, and neither establishes a concession or lease-term signal.
Household metrics show the scale of the screening issue but not a household-by-household result. The ZCTA’s median household income is $53,870. Annualizing the current ZORI and applying a 30% rent-share screen yields $51,080 of required income; this is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The same aggregate comparison places the index at 28.4% of median household income, which does not substitute for renter-income data or actual lease costs. Renter households number 15,079 and represent a 55.5% renter share. ACS observes 6,936 renter households, or 46.0%, paying at least that share of income toward gross rent. That observed burden is a survey result for occupied homes, not proof of affordability or burden for any specific unit.
Broader comparisons locate the ZIP signal but remain context only. At the Springfield city scope, the reported context rent is $1,230.34; at the Greene County scope, it is $1,264; and at the Springfield, MO metro scope, it is $1,268. The ZIP index is higher than each of those wider-scope rent figures. Scope matters: city, county, and metro measurements do not replace ZIP-level ZORI, ZCTA ACS, or the local HUD ladder, and their differences do not identify the terms, price, or availability of any property.
Limits are material. Zillow measures a typical observed asking-rent index across blended rental types, ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty among occupied renter homes, and HUD supplies administrative standards; none is a property ledger. The temporal and geographic alignment is incomplete even with the ZIP–ZCTA match. Concrete property-level checks include the advertised rent for the exact unit, bedroom count, whether selected utilities are included, required recurring and one-time fees, lease length, available date, concessions, and effective rent after stated terms. Those checks should distinguish current availability from aggregate vacancy and confirm that any comparison uses the same unit type and lease basis.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is a $1,277 ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA figure is a $1,054 median gross rent among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Their separation is analytical: the difference reflects distinct timing, populations, and construction, not a conversion factor for an individual listing.","title":"Current index versus survey rent"},{"body":"The local HUD bedroom ladder supplies the relative scaling pattern. Applying that ladder to the ZIP ZORI yields modelled monthly figures from $1,023 for a studio to $1,984 for four bedrooms, with the two-bedroom estimate equal to the ZORI anchor. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; HUD FMR remains an administrative standard rather than an asking-rent observation.","title":"Modelled bedroom ladder"},{"body":"Median household income and the required-income screen are aggregate comparisons, not renter underwriting. The $51,080 result follows a 30% arithmetic screen applied to annualized ZORI, while ACS burden reports the share of occupied renter households whose gross rent reaches that threshold. Neither statistic determines an applicant’s ability to pay or the full cost of a lease.","title":"Aggregate income and burden"},{"body":"Vacancy is an inventory classification, not evidence that a specific home can be leased. In the ZCTA, 475 units classified for rent are only part of the broader vacant stock, and structure categories do not report condition, listing price, or timing. The relevant property-level facts remain the actual advertised unit, its terms, and its availability.","title":"Vacancy is composition, not availability"}],"risks":["The primary measures refer to different universes and dates: a current blended Zillow asking-rent index, a historical ACS survey of occupied renter homes, and HUD administrative standards. Treating their gaps as a single market trend would overstate what the packet shows.","The ZIP and ZCTA share the same label but do not have identical boundaries. ACS estimates also carry survey uncertainty, so small differences in rents, households, or vacancy should not be read as precise address-level facts.","Because the bedroom ladder is scaled from HUD standards, it expresses a relative model around ZORI rather than observed bedroom-specific transactions or listings. A unit’s actual bedroom rent can depart from the model without contradicting the reported figures.","Vacancy and rent-burden measures are aggregate observations. They cannot prove a particular unit is empty, affordable, eligible, available on a needed date, or offered with the utilities and fees assumed in an aggregate comparison."],"qa":[{"a":"No. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the reported time. It does not identify a property’s advertised price, bedroom count, utilities, fees, lease term, concession, or availability, and it is not an executed-lease median for every property in the market.","q":"Is the Zillow figure a median lease rent for every property?"},{"a":"ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Zillow is a current ZIP asking-rent index with a different population and construction. They can provide a bounded comparison of reported levels, but combining them would not create a single current rent estimate or a property-specific asking price.","q":"Why cannot ACS median gross rent replace the Zillow asking-rent index?"},{"a":"The studio-through-four-bedroom numbers are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They use the ZIP ZORI as a level anchor and apply the local HUD ladder’s relative bedroom values. Since HUD FMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent, the resulting ladder does not measure observed asking rents or establish the price of a given unit.","q":"How were the bedroom figures produced?"},{"a":"It annualizes the stated ZIP ZORI and divides the result by 30%, producing a simple income screen. It is not financial advice, an affordability recommendation, a legal threshold, an applicant qualification rule, or a renter-income measure. Actual lease costs can differ because the unit’s listed rent, utilities, fees, concessions, and lease terms are property-specific.","q":"What does the required-income figure mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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