A rent-versus-resale split is the key starting point in 66047. This five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI for the ZIP is $1,490, up 6.25% year over year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market index rather than a quote for one available home. Annualized ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price produces a 4.68% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a property-level operating measure and cannot stand in for property economics or reconcile the rental and resale datasets.
Behind that current rent level, exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 6.25% over 1 year, 5.82% over 3 years, and 7.20% over 5 years. The most recent direction therefore confirms, rather than breaks from, a longer record of positive growth, although the recent pace sits below the full five-year pace. Backward-looking monthly-return volatility annualized to 1.88%, maximum drawdown was -1.10%, and history coverage was 98.46%. In the transparent national history discovery ranks, momentum ranked 156, stability 72, and the combined balanced measure 14, where lower ranks are higher. These are measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The contained variability and shallow drawdown support somewhat more confidence in one current index snapshot than a highly erratic series would, while never guaranteeing persistence.
ACS answers a different question. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,147, with a reported margin of error of $71, and gross rent covers occupied renter homes plus selected utilities. Current ZORI is 29.9% above that survey median, a difference that can reflect definition, timing, utility treatment, and the surveyed occupied-home universe; it does not establish a change in the rent of a specific unit. At their named wider scopes, the City of Lawrence city-context rent is $1,288, while Douglas County county-context rent and the Lawrence, KS metro-context rent are each $1,294. Those city, county, and metro values are context only, not substitutes for the ZIP-level asking-rent index or ZCTA survey.
Bedroom figures are constructed rather than observed rental comps. The FY2026 local HUD bedroom ladder runs from $895 for a studio to $1,983 for four bedrooms; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local ladder creates modelled monthly ZIP estimates from $1,128 for a studio to $2,500 for four bedrooms. The modelled two-bedroom estimate is $1,490, aligned mechanically with the HUD two-bedroom standard of $1,182. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they should not be treated as evidence of a unit’s actual availability, lease terms, utilities, or condition.
An income screen gives another view but remains mechanical. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, annual income needed to support the current index is $59,600. The ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $65,392, placing the ZIP asking-rent-to-income arithmetic at 27.3% using that area-wide median. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; household income and rent obligations vary materially within a survey geography. The more direct burden signal is still substantial: ACS reports 2,562 of 4,932 occupied renter homes with rent burden at or above the threshold, or 51.9%. That burden count has a reported margin of error of 567. The survey burden describes households in aggregate and cannot prove anything about a particular dwelling or household.
Housing composition cautions against reading either a ZORI index or the burden share as a vacancy count. In the matched ZCTA survey, the stock totals 9,291 housing units and the vacancy rate is 2.1%. There are 5,410 single-family units, while the renter share of occupied homes is 54.2%; large multifamily structures are a separately counted part of the stock as well. These ACS counts describe a five-year survey geography, not a live listing feed. In particular, the vacancy statistic cannot establish that a suitable unit is open, its asking price, its bedroom count, or whether it is offered to a given household. It instead sets a structural backdrop for the renter and rent-burden measures.
Resale evidence supplies the clearest challenge to a rent-only reading. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation reports a $382,414 median sold price, up 26.44% year over year. It records 37 homes sold with median marketing time of 33 days, inventory of 61 homes that was 15.63% higher than a year earlier, and 5.0 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 99.34%, and 19.46% of sales closed above list. This is direct ZIP resale evidence, not rental transactions, rental comps, or property economics. The materially faster resale price increase confirms a rent-versus-sale split, while rising inventory and supply above the Lawrence, KS metro context challenge any assumption that smooth rent growth or the income screen signals proportionately constrained resale supply.
No series here can identify the rent or sale economics of a particular property. Zillow blends types into a typical asking-rent index; ACS is a five-year sample of occupied renter homes with selected utilities; HUD supplies a non-market administrative standard; and Redfin tracks completed resale activity in a rolling window. Before applying these aggregates to an address, verify the current advertised rent and availability, bedroom configuration, property type, lease length, utility allocation, mandatory fees, concessions, furnishings, condition, and comparable nearby live listings. For a sale comparison, verify the specific closing date, list price, sale price, financing or concession terms where disclosed, and physical comparability. Does the actual unit’s documented rent package and bedroom profile match the assumptions behind this ZIP-level screen?
","findings":[{"body":"At the stated endpoint, ZORI is $1,490 after a 6.25% year-over-year rise. Exact same-month history shows 6.25%, 5.82%, and 7.20% annualized changes across the one-, three-, and five-year windows. Annualized variability of 1.88%, a -1.10% maximum drawdown, and 98.46% coverage describe the recorded path. The balanced national discovery rank of 14 is historical, not an outlook.","title":"Stable rent history, not an outlook"},{"body":"The matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year estimate puts median gross rent at $1,147, with a $71 margin of error, versus a current $1,490 ZORI. ACS includes selected utilities and covers occupied renter homes, while ZORI is an asking-rent index blended across rental types. The 29.9% difference therefore compares unlike source universes rather than measuring a premium on the same units.","title":"Survey rent trails the asking-rent index"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a $382,414 median sold price, 26.44% higher year over year, despite inventory rising 15.63% to 61 homes. With 37 sales, 33 median days on market, and 5.0 months of supply, the resale record contains a different signal mix than ZORI. It is evidence on completed for-sale transactions, not rental availability, rent collection, or rental property economics.","title":"Resale moved faster than rent"},{"body":"The area-wide 30% screen requires $59,600 of annual income for the current ZORI, while ACS reports a $65,392 median household income. Yet 51.9% of occupied renter homes meet the burden threshold. The arithmetic and burden figures support context-setting only: they do not qualify applicants, describe a particular lease, or establish the affordability of a specific home.","title":"Area-wide affordability remains mixed"}],"risks":["Zillow asking-rent, ACS gross-rent, HUD standard, and Redfin resale measures use different units, populations, and timing; direct comparisons can look precise while describing non-comparable housing experiences.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit the ZIP index and HUD ladder rather than lease-level observations. Unit size, included utilities, concessions, furnishing, property type, and condition can create substantial deviations.","Redfin’s rolling resale window records completed sales, not rental transactions. Median prices and sale-to-list signals can be influenced by the mix of homes that sold and cannot establish property economics.","ZCTA burden and vacancy statistics are survey aggregates with sampling uncertainty. They cannot determine whether any particular renter is burdened or whether a specific dwelling is vacant, available, suitable, or affordable."],"qa":[{"a":"The two sources represent different populations and concepts. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS reports median gross rent for occupied renter homes over a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. The difference is therefore a source-universe contrast, not a unit-level rent change or proof that either measure is incorrect.","q":"Why is Zillow asking rent higher than ACS gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates produced by scaling the current ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent. The resulting figures organize comparison by bedroom size, but they do not measure advertised rents, signed leases, utilities, or unit condition.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"Redfin’s median sold price, sales count, days on market, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list metrics all come from a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation. They describe resale liquidity and pricing signals only. They cannot be used as rental comps or blended into ZORI as though they were lease transactions.","q":"How should the Redfin resale figures be interpreted?"},{"a":"At the address level, verify the advertised rent, availability date, bedrooms, property type, lease term, utility responsibility, mandatory fees, concessions, furnishings, and condition. For a sale comparison, verify the actual closing record, list history, disclosed concessions, physical comparability, and whether the relevant observations fall within the intended time frame.","q":"What property-level facts remain necessary?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1044.699859},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1039.186191},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1035.861792},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1041.054556},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1052.939688},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1078.995467},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1087.675941},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1075.714706},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1079.797715},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1088.514506},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1099.881703},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1103.071495},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1107.150381},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1118.555131},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1130.982753},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1138.818974},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1140.912766},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1144.469632},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1154.536087},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1176.951292},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1186.75486},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1186.102815},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1199.860073},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1215.561253},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1243.852448},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1249.95575},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1255.410574},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1257.945009},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1265.157424},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1276.579664},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1281.635546},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1279.846535},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1275.534842},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1284.159892},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1291.239098},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1302.572487},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1298.740751},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1303.308928},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1306.612486},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1313.217036},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1320.930923},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1327.985298},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1326.045231},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1333.998871},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1344.865848},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1362.899339},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1369.829183},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1373.868482},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1380.822983},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1391.444574},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1403.263863},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1402.807183},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1410.343464},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1415.628842},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1430.02492},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1437.94489},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1447.260342},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1446.17834},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1451.504056},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1456.753178},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1464.856605},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1470.527711},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1476.119623},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1490.486111}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":0.9846153846153847,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1402.807183,"endRent":1490.486111,"change":0.06250248007177484,"cagr":0.06250248007177484},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1257.945009,"endRent":1490.486111,"change":0.18485792330847417,"cagr":0.058169953540610386},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1052.939688,"endRent":1490.486111,"change":0.41554746960967437,"cagr":0.07197556882847533}},"maxDrawdown":-0.010997057624537399,"annualizedVolatility":0.018835831174690607,"consecutiveReturnCount":62}}