This ZIP’s current rental signal sits between its wider comparison markets. Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is $1,572 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. For wider context, the Overland Park city-context rent is $1,800, the Johnson County county-context rent is $1,815, and the Kansas City, MO-KS metro-context rent is $1,545; each is a broader-scope comparison rather than a ZIP observation. Thus the ZIP index is below city and county context but marginally above metro context, a useful price-level tension rather than evidence that any individual listing is cheaper. The five-digit label 66204 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Those price-level comparisons must not be collapsed into one rent measure. Zillow ZORI records a ZIP asking-rent index, while the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,366 median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The index is 15.1% above that ACS median, but the ACS figure is neither a contemporaneous asking-rent quote nor a substitute for the index. HUD FMR/SAFMR, in turn, is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its local two-bedroom standard is $1,460. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,271 for a studio, $1,389 for one bedroom, $1,572 for two, $2,046 for three, and $2,433 for four. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents.
Income and burden raise a separate affordability screen. In the ACS ZCTA survey, median household income is $75,889. At 30%, the monthly ZORI implies an arithmetic annual required income of $62,880. The annualized asking-rent amount equals 24.9% of area median household income, but that area-wide statistic is not a prospective renter’s income. This screen is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The survey estimates that 1,985 of 4,450 renter households, or 44.6%, paid at or above that threshold toward gross rent. Reported ACS margins of error should temper point precision. Because burden is survey based and gross rent includes selected utilities, it cannot establish burden for a specific household or a particular unit. Higher asking index and surveyed burden share therefore need separate, not merged, readings.
The ACS ZCTA housing base has a narrow renter majority, but its aggregate vacancy is not a unit-level availability measure. It contains 9,300 housing units, of which 589 are vacant, for a 6.3% vacancy rate; 51.1% of occupied homes are renter occupied. The stock includes 5,794 single-family units and 1,125 units in large multifamily structures, so the index’s rental-type blend should not be read as an apartment-only series. Vacancy categories include for-rent, for-sale, and seasonal units, and the total does not say which individual units are market-ready. This is an aggregate ZCTA measurement; it cannot prove vacancy, concessions, or turnover at a particular building.
Zillow history through June 2026 has 100% coverage, offering a complete observed window rather than a partial series. Exact same-month annualized ZORI growth is 4.2% over one year, 5.3% over three years, and 7.4% over five years. Recent direction remains positive, so it confirms rather than breaks the longer rising path, but the one-year pace is slower than the three- and five-year measures. At 3.1%, annualized variability in monthly returns supports only moderate confidence in a current index as a broad snapshot rather than a precise unit quote. A separate maximum-drawdown reading puts the deepest recorded peak-to-trough decline at 2.4%, so past reversals occurred despite the overall rise. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 425 for momentum, 1,801 for stability, and 659 for balanced history; lower rank is stronger. That spread describes stronger historical momentum than stability. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale evidence is distinct and must stay in its own universe. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation reports a $336,424 median sold price, up 6.8% year over year, across 80 homes sold. Marketing time was 3 days, reported inventory was 19 homes, and months of supply was 0.7. At that level, listed resale availability represented less than one month at the recent sales pace; this signals limited resale availability relative to that pace, not a rental-vacancy measure or a projection. The average sale-to-list ratio was 102.65%, and 56.46% of sales closed above list. Those sale-to-list signals and turnover characterize for-sale liquidity, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics.
Placing the two universes next to each other creates a real but bounded tension. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price equals a 5.6% cross-source screening ratio only; it does not measure operating costs, financing, taxes, transaction terms, or property cash flow. The positive rent history and limited resale supply point in the same direction about recent strength in their separate series, while the slower short-horizon rent pace and the ACS burden share prevent treating either signal as a complete affordability or valuation conclusion. Resale prices rose more quickly over the reported year than the asking-rent index, challenging any simple claim that rent growth alone explains the resale result. This is comparison, not causation.
Several limits keep this ZIP profile from being a property decision. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index rather than an executed lease, ACS is a survey of ZCTA residents rather than delivery-ZIP addresses, HUD is an administrative standard, and the Redfin series aggregates recent resale transactions. The bedroom ladder inherits both the ZIP index and HUD proportions; it cannot capture unit condition, lease term, furnished status, included utilities, floor plan, or concessions. At property level, relevant checks are live advertised rent, bedroom count, utility responsibility, available date, lease terms, unit condition, and whether comparable sales and listings match the same property type. Aggregate vacancy and burden measures cannot settle any of those questions. Does the particular unit’s lease, utilities, physical specification, and associated listing or sale record actually match the evidence universe being used?
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index is below the stated Overland Park city and Johnson County context rents but slightly above the Kansas City metro context rent. This supplies a regional price-position frame, yet all three comparators are broader geographies. It cannot translate a citywide, countywide, or metro asking-rent level into a lease quote inside the ZIP.","title":"Regional rent position is lower than city and county context"},{"body":"Survey affordability is less comfortable than the ZIP index alone suggests. ACS median gross rent is lower than ZORI but describes occupied renter homes, selected utilities, and a five-year survey period. The arithmetic income screen falls below area median household income, while the rent-burden estimate still places a substantial share of renter households at or above the threshold. These are aggregate conditions, not tenant underwriting.","title":"Survey affordability is less simple than the asking index"},{"body":"The complete ZORI history has a positive one-, three-, and five-year path, although the latest one-year pace is the slowest of the three. Historical variability and the peak-to-trough decline increase confidence in the direction of the ZIP-wide series, not in a particular listing. National discovery ranks point to stronger observed momentum than stability. Every history measure remains retrospective.","title":"History shows positive momentum with moderated snapshot confidence"},{"body":"Redfin shows a fast, supply-limited recent resale window: transactions moved in a few days, supply was below one month, and sale-to-list indicators exceeded parity. That observation confirms active for-sale liquidity while remaining separate from rental transactions. Its stronger annual price change than the rent index’s latest increase creates a tension: resale movement cannot be assigned to rent movement, and the cross-source screen is only a comparison ratio.","title":"Fast resale conditions remain separate from rental evidence"}],"risks":["ZORI’s blended, ZIP-wide asking-rent construction can differ from a particular unit’s lease quote, and the modelled bedroom ladder carries HUD proportions rather than observed bedroom-specific rents.","ACS values come from a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and include selected utilities; sampling uncertainty and ZCTA-versus-delivery-ZIP boundaries limit point-level precision.","Aggregate vacancy, vacant-unit classifications, renter share, and rent-burden share cannot establish whether any named building has availability, concessions, a burdened tenant, or stable turnover today.","Redfin measures a rolling for-sale resale window, while the rent-to-price screen combines sources; it omits financing, expenses, taxes, unit condition, and property-specific transaction terms."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is Zillow’s typical observed ZIP asking-rent index, blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The measures differ in time frame, sampled universe, and utility treatment. Consequently, their gap is a source-design contrast, not an appraisal of a particular available unit.","q":"What explains the difference between ZORI and ACS gross rent?"},{"a":"No. Each bedroom figure scales the ZIP-wide ZORI by the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative standard, not asking rent, so the outputs are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They do not observe studio or larger-unit leases and cannot account for condition, utilities, concessions, furnishing, availability, or lease duration.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents in this ZIP?"},{"a":"They establish only observed, backward-looking ZIP-index behavior through the stated endpoint. The same-month growth sequence remains positive but decelerates over the shorter horizon, while variability and drawdown show the path was not perfectly smooth. Lower discovery ranks are stronger, so the rank spread indicates better relative momentum than stability among history-eligible ZIPs. None establishes future rent movement.","q":"What do history and the national discovery ranks establish?"},{"a":"Redfin’s rolling three-month figures describe ZIP for-sale transactions: sold-price levels, sales pace, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. They are not rental transactions or unit-level economics. Annualized ZORI divided by the median sold price is a cross-source screening ratio only. It leaves out expenses, taxes, financing, condition, and transaction-specific terms, so it cannot resolve property-level economics.","q":"How should the resale evidence and cross-source ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1081.250455},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1087.317547},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1083.312016},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1080.977924},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1077.492771},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1085.053427},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1082.556807},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1086.666044},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1099.350927},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1121.256672},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1144.770613},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1152.952236},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1170.325808},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1177.083573},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1187.899103},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1184.828533},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1193.349838},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1208.213421},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1248.855161},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1268.370905},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1289.417562},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1283.866382},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1282.002018},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1286.258085},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1287.076888},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1300.585153},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1296.907715},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1330.407036},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1342.420273},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1359.016878},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1345.096551},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1354.151884},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1344.614021},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1353.117271},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1351.368815},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1376.774576},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1382.47248},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1399.689014},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1405.457557},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1412.133834},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1414.785181},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1424.346938},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1422.110987},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1440.672191},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1465.057081},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1479.388555},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1481.527235},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1465.673853},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1488.203198},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1504.256816},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1527.929032},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1514.402613},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1497.537781},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1490.755969},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1508.24016},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1506.356165},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1508.681618},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1508.974052},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1523.067762},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1535.894157},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1529.515569},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1519.872005},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1513.91136},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1527.735899},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1550.67377},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1561.716806},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1565.487517},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1569.625643},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1571.69213}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":69,"firstPeriod":"2020-10-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":69,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1508.681618,"endRent":1571.69213,"change":0.041765281188704595,"cagr":0.041765281188704595},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1344.614021,"endRent":1571.69213,"change":0.16887977178099045,"cagr":0.05339183475405451},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1099.350927,"endRent":1571.69213,"change":0.42965461837464747,"cagr":0.07410373387418767}},"maxDrawdown":-0.024329050774918426,"annualizedVolatility":0.031136188556745506,"consecutiveReturnCount":68}}