At the June 2026 reading, Zillow ZORI for ZIP 66210 was $1,644 per month, 3.4% above the same month a year earlier. This is the Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA label; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it represents neither a signed-lease average nor a promise for a particular home. Broader Zillow context points in two directions: the Overland Park citywide rent reading was about $1,800 and the Johnson County countywide reading was $1,815, both above this ZIP reading; the Kansas City, MO-KS metro-area reading was $1,545, below it. Those city, county, and metro values are context only, not substitutes for the ZIP index.
History adds a caution to that positive current print. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 3.4% over one year, 4.3% over three years, and 6.5% over five years. The latest result therefore confirms a rising longer path but breaks from its earlier pace rather than extending it at the same rate. The record has 100% coverage: 65 monthly observations and 64 consecutive returns. Annualized monthly-return variability measured 4.0%, which lowers the confidence warranted by a single current snapshot in this designated high-variability history. Separately, the largest peak-to-trough decrease reached 4.1%, establishing that the historical series has experienced retrenchment. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher, were 671 for momentum, 2,611 for stability, and 1,568 for the balanced measure; they describe past patterns, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
HUD supplies the scaling shape rather than a rent observation. Applying the local FY2026 HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,330 for a studio, $1,454 for a one-bedroom, $1,644 for a two-bedroom, $2,138 for a three-bedroom, and $2,547 for a four-bedroom. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, because they scale the blended ZIP index by the local HUD ladder. The HUD FMR/SAFMR framework is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; it cannot validate an advertised unit. The local two-bedroom HUD standard is $1,730, placing the modelled two-bedroom figure 5.0% below that benchmark. Differences can arise because the index, HUD standard, unit mix, and utility treatment do not share a common universe.
The matched Census ZCTA offers a different lens. Its ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,473; that measure describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike ZORI's asking-rent universe. The current asking index is 11.6% above this ACS median, a gap that is descriptive rather than proof that any given unit costs more. At a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic screen, $1,644 monthly asking rent corresponds to $65,760 in annual income. The ZCTA median household income was $95,636, but an area median does not establish an applicant's resources or qualification. Burden data sharpen the aggregate tension: 39.0% of reporting renter households, or 1,784 of 4,574, had rent burdens at or above the screen. This is a prevalence measure for the area, not a result for an individual lease. The screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
Housing counts portray a materially renter-involved ZCTA, while not identifying availability at a particular address. Of 9,779 housing units, the reported vacancy rate was 3.8%, and the stock includes both single-family and large multifamily structures. The renter share was 48.6%, and 232 units were classified as vacant for rent. That count is an area-level classification, not evidence that a desired bedroom type, price point, condition, lease term, or building has an opening. This tenancy mix helps frame why the burden result should be read alongside rather than replaced by the ZORI asking index. It also does not establish turnover, concessions, unit quality, or leasing competition. Census stock and vacancy observations describe the matched ZCTA's housing inventory, whereas current listings and signed leases would be property-specific evidence.
Resale evidence yields the sharpest counterweight. In Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, median sold price was $439,901, up 0.95% year over year. There were 90 homes sold, a median marketing time of 4 days, inventory of 13 homes, and 0.4 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 102.1%, while 52.3% sold above list. These are resale transaction and listing signals, not rental transactions, rental comps, or property operating economics. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price creates a 4.48% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Quick, above-list resale activity challenges any attempt to read moderated ZIP rent momentum as a uniform housing-market signal, while the separate burden and affordability screens make resale liquidity insufficient proof of rental performance.
None of the sources resolves the other source's blind spots. ZORI's blended asking-rent signal does not identify a unit's bedroom count, concessions, included utilities, lease duration, move-in date, size, or condition. ACS is a retrospective survey of occupied homes and carries sampling uncertainty; its ZCTA geography does not recreate a mailing route. HUD standards set administrative bedroom benchmarks, and Redfin's ZIP resale series tracks sales rather than rentals. A property-level file would therefore need the specific advertised rent and bedroom designation, lease and concession terms, utility responsibility, unit condition and size, availability date, and comparable active or recently leased units. For a purchase-oriented review, sale date, list-to-sale history, financing terms, taxes, insurance, association obligations, and repair records also remain separate checks rather than conclusions supplied by the resale median.
The evidence supports a nuanced current reading rather than a single market verdict. ZIP asking rent remains below the named citywide and countywide contexts yet above the metro context; its recent advance is positive but slower than the longer historical path, and the history's variability limits certainty around a point-in-time index. The ZCTA's burden share establishes that aggregate affordability pressure exists despite a median-income comparison that clears the arithmetic screen. Meanwhile, the direct resale observation shows rapid, favorable seller-side signals, but it cannot bridge the divide between sold homes and rental units. The appropriate conclusion is descriptive: this ZIP presents a contrast between moderating rent momentum, renter exposure, and brisk resale evidence. Does the particular unit's current lease evidence, utility treatment, and physical characteristics support the blended ZIP signal without treating any cross-source measure as a forecast or decision rule?
","findings":[{"body":"ZORI's latest same-month gain remains positive, but its annual pace sits below the three- and five-year annualized changes. Complete monthly history supports measuring that slowdown, while the high-variability classification and historical drawdown mean the current index should be treated as a current indicator with a less stable backdrop, not a trend guarantee or forecast.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has moderated"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD answer distinct questions. ZORI is a blended asking-rent measure; ACS gross rent is retrospective survey evidence for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities; HUD uses administrative bedroom standards. The bedroom ladder is therefore a scaling model, not measured rent by unit size. The gap between asking and gross-rent measures is informative about source scope, not a universal unit-level premium.","title":"The rent sources answer different questions"},{"body":"ACS portrays a substantial renter share and a meaningful share of renters at or above the stated burden threshold. The area median-income comparison clears the arithmetic income screen, but neither aggregate statistic identifies an individual household's income, utility bills, lease concession, or eligibility. Vacancy and vacant-for-rent counts describe ZCTA inventory, not a specific apartment's availability.","title":"Aggregate affordability and vacancy do not identify a unit"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale reading points to fast, supply-constrained for-sale activity with above-list signals. That confirms resale liquidity but neither establishes rent collections nor transforms the annualized-rent-to-sale-price calculation into property economics. The contrast between brisk sales and moderated rent momentum is the key cross-universe tension: each signal can coexist without validating the other.","title":"Resale liquidity is strong but separate from rental evidence"}],"risks":["A blended asking-rent index may differ substantially from the actual subject unit because bedroom count, size, condition, concessions, utilities, lease duration, and availability are not resolved in the ZIP measure.","The ACS ZCTA is statistical rather than postal geography, and its occupied-renter medians, vacancy measures, burden figures, and income estimates carry survey uncertainty that cannot characterize a delivery ZIP or an individual lease.","Fast ZIP resale marketing and above-list outcomes come from for-sale transactions, so they cannot demonstrate rental demand, tenant payment capacity, operating costs, or unit-level affordability.","Historical rent changes, volatility, drawdown, and discovery rankings are backward-looking; the rent-to-price screen mixes unrelated source universes and cannot support a forecast, valuation conclusion, or return claim."],"qa":[{"a":"The ZIP ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the stated reading. It is not a signed-lease median, a bedroom-specific survey, or a price guarantee for a property. Its relationship to city, county, and metro context is comparative only, because those are wider geographies.","q":"What does the current asking-rent figure actually represent?"},{"a":"They originate in different universes. ZORI follows observed asking rents, ACS reports five-year survey median gross rent for occupied renter homes with selected utilities, and HUD publishes administrative bedroom-specific standards. The modelled bedroom figures use HUD's relative ladder to scale ZORI. Accordingly, differences should not be read as measurement errors or unit-specific price differences.","q":"Why do the ZORI, ACS, and HUD rent figures differ?"},{"a":"No. The stated screen simply divides the annualized asking-rent figure by thirty percent to show an income amount under a fixed arithmetic convention. Area median income and burden share are aggregate ZCTA measures. They cannot determine an applicant's income, expenses, credit, lease terms, utilities, or landlord qualification decision.","q":"Does the affordability screen decide whether someone can rent?"},{"a":"Redfin contributes a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation covering sale prices, transaction volume, days on market, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is useful for describing resale liquidity and the contrast with rent history. It does not provide rental comparables, property expenses, tenant data, or a property-level yield conclusion.","q":"What does the resale evidence add to the rental reading?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1141.43005},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1144.439489},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1164.56573},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1180.714232},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1197.157315},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1210.954309},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1182.714543},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1179.79914},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1191.198819},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1251.638121},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1291.556336},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1321.172527},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1336.489331},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1358.598278},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1373.084084},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1396.926842},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1405.04485},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1426.589821},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1459.799677},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1481.04407},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1477.569571},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1441.440347},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1423.863542},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1419.992417},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1430.52902},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1446.593679},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1451.512741},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1446.623671},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1450.70869},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1450.495716},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1464.402209},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1455.90203},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1491.955209},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1506.987151},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1528.99515},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1507.657116},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1495.796499},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1493.788162},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1500.552281},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1512.838817},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1525.868703},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1538.629737},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1549.230436},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1557.691487},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1562.375179},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1567.041291},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1577.374832},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1587.905697},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1600.447501},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1595.183082},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1589.712826},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1587.190089},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1590.426299},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1586.998257},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1577.796491},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1583.990605},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1575.499932},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1582.579026},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1579.151391},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1594.134358},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1601.114746},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1615.285913},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1628.359769},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1638.817748},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1643.855556}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1590.426299,"endRent":1643.855556,"change":0.03359429923511348,"cagr":0.03359429923511348},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1450.70869,"endRent":1643.855556,"change":0.13313966293260449,"cagr":0.042544209411722544},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1197.157315,"endRent":1643.855556,"change":0.37313244918024835,"cagr":0.06547309142341273}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04122203669469471,"annualizedVolatility":0.040246384837087174,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}