The key tension is a ZIP asking-rent index that sits well above broad-area asking-rent context while its latest growth rate is slower than its own longer record. In June 2026, the 68022 Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) was $1,678 per month, up 2.2% year over year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a census rent or a bedroom-specific quote. Against wider benchmarks, it was 15.4% above the Omaha city asking-rent context, 15.9% above the Douglas County asking-rent context, and 16.2% above the Omaha–Council Bluffs, NE–IA metro asking-rent context. Those city, county, and metro values are comparative context, not ZIP observations.
Same-month history shows positive but slowing growth: ZORI rose 2.2% over 1 year, versus annualized gains of 3.1% over 3 years and 5.1% over 5 years. Annualized monthly-return variability was 1.8%, and the maximum drawdown was -1.3%. Coverage is 100%, with 65 monthly observations and 64 consecutive returns. Among history-eligible ZIPs, the transparent national discovery ranks were 50 for stability and 1,178 for momentum; lower rank is stronger. The latest positive direction therefore breaks from the older, faster growth path rather than confirming it. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Low variability and limited drawdown support more confidence in one current index snapshot than a volatile series would, while still not establishing any particular unit’s rent.
Direct resale conditions intensify that tension. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 30, 2026, the median sold price was $556,774, up 5.4% from a year earlier, alongside 294 homes sold and 69 median days on market. It reported inventory of 186 homes and 1.9 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 100.6%, and 44.1% of sales closed above list. This is for-sale market evidence, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is a 3.6% cross-source screening ratio only, never a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Price appreciation and constrained resale supply coexist with slower current asking-rent growth; that challenges reading resale strength as confirmation of equally rapid rent momentum, without asserting a cause.
Bedroom presentation requires a separate model rather than an assumption that the ZIP index measures every unit size. Scaling current ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,332 for a studio, $1,405 for one bedroom, $1,678 for two bedrooms, $2,223 for three bedrooms, and $2,507 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents or listing comps. The relevant FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom administrative standard is $1,600, making the modelled two-bedroom estimate 4.9% higher. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so its role here is to set relative bedroom steps rather than document achieved lease prices.
The matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey reported median gross rent of $1,493 for occupied renter homes. That is a different universe from ZORI: ACS is a five-year survey, includes selected utilities, and reflects occupied renter households rather than current asking-rent observations. The current ZORI therefore stands above the ACS measure without proving that a new lease costs more by that difference. At the 30% required-income screen, the current monthly ZIP index corresponds to $67,120 in annual household income. The ZCTA median household income was $148,111, and annualized current asking rent equals 13.6% of that figure. ACS counted 1,318 of 3,386 renter households, or 38.9%, at or above the burden screen. The screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and burden does not establish the cost of a particular unit.
The matched ZCTA has 13,457 housing units and a 3.2% vacancy rate. Its reported stock is predominantly single-family, with a smaller large-multifamily component, and most occupied homes are owner occupied. The vacancy categories separately include homes for rent and seasonal use, but the ACS survey does not convert them into a real-time availability count. This is a housing-stock and survey-period vacancy signal, not proof that an identified home is vacant, rentable, suitably priced, or in a given condition. It constrains interpretation of the broad ZIP evidence rather than supplying evidence about any one listing.
Geographic labels do not make the sources interchangeable. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow uses ZIP-level asking-rent observations, ACS uses matched-ZCTA occupied-renter survey responses, and the local HUD ladder is supplied as a ZIP SAFMR or county-derived standard. The Omaha city, Douglas County, and Omaha–Council Bluffs metro comparisons are wider context only. Accordingly, the dollar gaps and shares above are cross-universe signals with different timing, unit definitions, and inclusion rules, not measurements of the same homes.
Several property-level checks remain necessary before applying these aggregates to a specific address. Confirm the live advertised rent and availability date, actual bedroom configuration, included utilities, lease term, concessions, and itemized mandatory charges. Separately identify whether a specific sale resembles the ZIP’s aggregate resale observation rather than assuming a median price represents an individual home. Check the geographic identifier used by the listing against the relevant ZIP and ZCTA scope. Neither historical regularity, a burden statistic, nor direct resale liquidity fills in those property details. Does the specific home’s current asking terms and physical configuration actually match the comparison being made?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI increased 2.2% in the latest same-month comparison, but its 3.1% and 5.1% annualized changes over longer spans were faster. Low historical variability and a shallow drawdown make the series internally steady. The evidence supports a decelerating yet positive observed asking-rent path, not an expectation about subsequent rent movement.","title":"Positive rent growth has cooled from the longer record"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are proportional estimates obtained by applying the local HUD ladder to the ZIP ZORI. They preserve the local bedroom-standard shape, but they do not observe advertised rents for any bedroom count. HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative standard, so neither it nor the modelled ladder replaces property-specific current listings.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled rather than observed"},{"body":"ACS gross rent and ZORI have distinct samples and cost definitions. ACS summarizes occupied renter households and selected utilities over five years, while ZORI is a current asking-rent index. The income screen is a transparent ratio and burden share is population-level survey evidence. Neither field determines a household’s qualification or a given unit’s all-in monthly cost.","title":"Income screening and burden answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale reading shows sales activity, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list outcomes, not lease transactions. Its rent-to-price calculation merely divides annualized ZORI by median sold price across sources. Stronger sale prices alongside slower asking-rent growth are a useful tension: they prevent the resale snapshot from being used as confirmation of near-term rental momentum.","title":"Resale tightness does not create a rental-return measure"}],"risks":["Comparing current ZORI with ACS gross rent may overstate or understate a current lease gap because timing, occupied-household status, rental mix, and selected utilities differ.","ZCTA survey geography differs from a USPS delivery ZIP, and survey margins of error plus multi-year averaging limit precision for a specific address, lease date, or tenant segment.","Bedroom outputs inherit HUD ladder proportions and current ZORI; they cannot indicate observed availability, concessions, quality, utilities, fees, or the exact rent for a particular unit.","Rolling resale figures reflect for-sale activity rather than leasing, and the cross-source rent-to-price screen excludes operating costs, financing, taxes, unit condition, and individual transaction economics."],"qa":[{"a":"Here, ZORI is Zillow’s ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types. It gives a current market-level asking-rent signal. It does not equal ACS gross rent, a HUD standard, a signed lease, or an asking price for a named bedroom configuration or property.","q":"What does ZORI represent in this report?"},{"a":"Each bedroom figure starts from ZIP ZORI and applies the relative steps in the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. That produces a consistent modelled estimate across unit sizes. It is not a collection of observed bedroom listings, and it cannot capture a property’s condition, available date, included utilities, fees, concessions, or lease terms.","q":"Why do the bedroom estimates not equal observed bedroom rents?"},{"a":"The required-income figure simply annualizes the current monthly ZIP index and divides it by the stated rent-share threshold. It is an arithmetic comparison, not lending, leasing, or applicant guidance. The burden statistic instead describes an ACS survey share of renter households, so neither result identifies whether a particular household can rent a particular home.","q":"How should the required-income and burden figures be read?"},{"a":"Redfin reports ZIP for-sale and resale outcomes over its rolling observation window, including sale price, marketing, supply, and sale-to-list measures. Dividing annualized ZORI by the median sold price only juxtaposes two sources. It omits all property operating costs and does not measure a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"What does the Redfin rent-to-price screen mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1280.594152},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1294.306874},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1295.659101},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1301.454856},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1308.575569},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1318.004336},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1338.592184},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1342.583574},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1344.410687},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1343.589162},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1354.251566},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1367.011734},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1377.645721},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1379.298842},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1382.669888},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1396.211753},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1411.753053},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1433.61479},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1430.750417},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1452.431503},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1455.789099},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1473.433796},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1482.893616},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1503.42529},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1510.185195},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1517.496856},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1526.305045},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1530.623622},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1529.972679},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1523.361882},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1537.624658},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1536.092827},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1531.586146},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1537.386508},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1547.321799},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1565.487863},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1563.799505},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1565.562101},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1567.500809},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1581.723147},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1596.044548},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1606.63803},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1612.072394},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1610.980269},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1629.268985},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1625.786355},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1623.790899},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1607.709798},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1617.736174},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1622.177683},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1630.878756},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1635.600729},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1642.018066},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1646.259052},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1648.359705},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1658.03673},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1657.729478},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1665.603913},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1671.191462},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1680.622211},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1682.213558},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1686.114575},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1685.610666},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1682.211859},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1677.967931}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1642.018066,"endRent":1677.967931,"change":0.021893708567759296,"cagr":0.021893708567759296},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1529.972679,"endRent":1677.967931,"change":0.09673065018176041,"cagr":0.031256408220394105},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1308.575569,"endRent":1677.967931,"change":0.2822858463438116,"cagr":0.05098609394050713}},"maxDrawdown":-0.01323242951193837,"annualizedVolatility":0.017965594733915225,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}