ZIP 68046 is both Zillow’s five-digit ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow ZORI is $1,653 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a current ZIP-level asking-rent measure rather than a survey of occupied households or an advertised quote for any one home. The central tension is a current asking-rent level above the occupied-renter survey median while its latest growth has cooled relative to its multiyear record; separately, the resale record still shows constrained and competitive ZIP sales conditions. These are parallel observations, not evidence that one market caused the other.
Rent history puts that cooled year in perspective. Exact same-month ZORI change was 1.8% over one year, compared with annualized 3.0% over three years and 4.8% over five years. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the faster longer-path pace. The series has 98.5% coverage, annualized monthly-return variability of 4.9%, and a maximum drawdown of 5.3%; its high-variability designation means a reader should place moderate, rather than absolute, confidence in one current rent snapshot. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower is higher, are 1,330 for momentum, 2,815 for stability, and 2,300 for the balanced measure. All are backward-looking measurements through the stated endpoint, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or predictions of the next rent move.
The source gap is real but not like-for-like. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,298 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is not an asking-rent series. ZORI is 27.3% above that survey median, a comparison that can reflect different universes and timing rather than a measured markup for the same home. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI using that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,320 for a studio, $1,389 for one bedroom, $1,653 for two bedrooms, $2,193 for three bedrooms, and $2,468 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
A 30% required-income screen translates monthly ZORI into $66,120 of annual household income. This is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $116,907, and the mechanical annual asking-rent-to-income comparison is 17.0%. Household-level medians cannot establish what any renter pays or can afford. Among the ACS renter-household universe, 1,183 of 3,033 renter households, or 39.0%, report spending at least the threshold share of income on gross rent. Because that survey measure applies to occupied renters and gross rent, it neither proves burden at a particular unit nor reconciles directly to ZORI asking rents.
The same ZCTA survey counts 13,270 housing units, 12,833 occupied units, and 437 vacant units, for a 3.3% vacancy rate. Its renter share is 23.6%, based on occupied tenure, and single-family housing is its largest named structure category; these are housing-stock and occupancy descriptions rather than current rental availability. The survey has a vacant-for-rent category, but it does not show whether those homes are comparable with ZORI’s blended rental mix, currently marketable, or vacant for the same reason. ACS population, income, tenure, rent, and vacancy are five-year survey outputs with sampling uncertainty, not a live listing count. Accordingly, vacancy and burden readings are aggregate context, not proof of conditions for a particular property or unit.
Scope matters when setting wider comparisons. In Papillion city context, reported rent is $1,693; in Sarpy County context, reported rent is $1,466; and in Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA metro context, reported rent is $1,444. The ZIP reading therefore trails the city figure but exceeds both wider figures. These named city, county, and metro measures are context only: they are not ZIP rental comps, do not change the ZCTA survey, and should not be combined with the direct ZIP resale observation. Their contrast provides scale, while the ZIP-level index remains the asking-rent reference used in the bedroom and income screens.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation through June 30, 2026 belongs entirely to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $461,818, up 5.1% year over year; 206 homes sold and median marketing time was 41 days. Inventory was 123 homes and months of supply were 1.8. The average sale-to-list ratio was 101.94%, while 64.1% of sales were above list; both are sale-to-list signals consistent with competitive resale outcomes in this period. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is 4.30%, but it is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Resale price growth and tight supply challenge any simplistic reading of slowing rent momentum and a mechanical income screen as a complete housing signal, without establishing causation.
Interpretation remains bounded by source design and timing. ZORI is an index across rental types; ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes; HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard; and Redfin is a rolling resale observation. None measures a particular unit’s lease, condition, utilities, concessions, bedroom count, or transaction costs. A property-level review can verify the current advertised rent, whether utilities and concessions are included, the bedroom classification used for comparison, lease term, unit condition, and the relevant sale record and listing status. The final property-level question is: do a specific unit’s current terms resemble the blended asking-rent index closely enough for these ZIP-level screens to be informative without treating them as a forecast or decision rule?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI at the reported endpoint is $1,653 per month. Its one-year same-month increase is below its annualized three- and five-year changes, so recent rent direction has slowed relative to the longer record. Coverage is nearly complete, but the reported volatility and maximum drawdown support only moderate confidence in a single current index reading. Discovery ranks describe past relative position among eligible ZIPs; they do not forecast rent.","title":"Decelerating rent growth within a variable history"},{"body":"The ACS median gross-rent comparison is not a same-unit asking-rent comparison: ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI is an asking-rent index. HUD’s local bedroom ladder is an administrative standard rather than observed asking rent. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling ZORI with that ladder. They are useful for consistent screening, but never measured bedroom rents or lease quotes.","title":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD answer different questions"},{"body":"The 30% income calculation converts the ZIP asking-rent index into a mechanical threshold; it does not assess a household’s eligibility or advise on affordability. ACS burden, income, tenure, stock, and vacancy describe the matched ZCTA’s survey population over five years. A renter-burden share cannot establish burden for a particular lease, and a vacancy rate cannot establish whether a specific unit is available, comparable, or competitively priced.","title":"Affordability and vacancy remain aggregate screens"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale record reports rising median sold price, limited months of supply, above-list sales, homes sold, and marketing time. Those are direct for-sale observations, not rental comps or property cash-flow evidence. They challenge treating slowing recent ZORI growth as a complete housing-market signal. Annualized ZORI divided by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio and is not a cap rate, return, or property yield.","title":"Resale liquidity challenges a one-dimensional rent reading"}],"risks":["The $1,653 ZORI, the ACS gross-rent median, and HUD standards use different timing, unit universes, and utility treatment, so numerical gaps cannot be interpreted as property-specific rent premiums.","High historical variability and a documented drawdown mean an index snapshot can move materially despite long-run gains; past measurements and discovery ranks provide no forecast of future asking rents.","The ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year ACS estimates summarize respondents and housing units rather than real-time listings, leases, or applicant finances.","Redfin resale activity, price, supply, and sale-to-list figures reflect ZIP for-sale transactions; they cannot establish rental demand, financing costs, net property economics, or the result for any specific asset."],"qa":[{"a":"Read it as a cross-universe descriptive gap, not a matched-rental price spread. Zillow ZORI is an observed typical asking-rent index across rental types at the ZIP market identifier. ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so timing, geography, and household status differ.","q":"How should the ZORI-to-ACS gap be read?"},{"a":"Each bedroom figure starts with the ZIP-wide ZORI and applies the relative shape of the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD provides an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not observed asking rents. This scaling makes the figures modelled estimates for a common ZIP screen; it did not observe listings, signed leases, unit size, utilities, amenities, or actual bedroom rents.","q":"Why are the bedroom figures called modelled estimates?"},{"a":"No. The required-income value is arithmetic: annualized ZORI divided by 30%. It is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden result separately counts occupied renter households reporting gross rent at or above that income share, with selected utilities in gross rent. Neither measure establishes a particular renter’s income, payment, eligibility, or burden at any unit.","q":"Does the 30% screen determine affordability or eligibility?"},{"a":"Redfin reports direct ZIP for-sale resale activity over its rolling three-month window, including sold price, sales count, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list signals. It does not report rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is retained only to place two sources on a screening scale; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"What does the Redfin block add to a rental report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1338.005657},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1267.00885},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1267.377839},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1275.648889},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1305.37203},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1311.479509},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1344.788896},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1387.511224},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1385.177453},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1348.953428},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1319.549323},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1317.680176},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1356.946335},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1367.708107},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1381.905447},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1382.393889},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1425.332664},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1438.186914},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1453.45017},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1445.751063},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1465.430845},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1456.578628},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1459.80638},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1460.243002},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1479.121037},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1490.959319},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1506.551583},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1514.031173},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1503.726924},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1511.367626},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1498.440946},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1505.898847},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1494.527514},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1522.899565},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1533.847199},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1549.990923},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1558.185619},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1558.489878},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1559.364747},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1561.239269},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1560.504211},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1523.832695},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1534.160872},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1543.899929},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1604.224717},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1610.827799},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1632.148406},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1622.218763},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1619.6252},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1624.325209},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1617.600955},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1623.275647},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1633.023109},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1668.050551},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1675.198906},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1675.994908},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1640.331849},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1635.360369},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1624.923421},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1635.043589},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1637.681338},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1640.999609},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1651.287977},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1652.869658}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":0.9846153846153847,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1623.275647,"endRent":1652.869658,"change":0.018231044773383553,"cagr":0.018231044773383553},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1514.031173,"endRent":1652.869658,"change":0.0917012063396927,"cagr":0.029677596124499495},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1305.37203,"endRent":1652.869658,"change":0.2662058172029318,"cagr":0.04833687165659062}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0530616642975823,"annualizedVolatility":0.048895326658878566,"consecutiveReturnCount":62}}