At the June 2026 reading, ZIP 68135's Zillow ZORI stood at $1,869 per month. The immediate tension is with Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation: median sold price was $406,053, up 13.42% year over year, while months of supply measured 0.8. Asking-rent movement and resale signals are different evidence universes, but their contrast is material to interpreting current conditions: rent is still edging upward while its recent pace is far quieter than the for-sale record. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
History describes the deceleration more fully. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 0.46% over one year, 2.70% over three years, and 4.50% over five years through the stated endpoint. Thus, the latest direction does not reverse the longer upward path, but it breaks from its earlier pace and supports the supplied cooling classification rather than a claim about the future. The series has 100% coverage. Annualized month-to-month return variability of 2.13% indicates a relatively restrained historical range of rent changes, giving a current snapshot a steadier historical backdrop than a highly erratic series would. Its 1.39% maximum drawdown identifies the largest observed peak-to-trough retreat. Transparent national discovery ranks were 1,751 for momentum, 222 for stability, and 871 for balanced history, where lower rank is higher; these are descriptive, backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Redfin's resale record adds liquidity evidence but no rental transaction evidence. In that direct ZIP resale observation, 152 homes sold and median marketing time was 14 days. It reported 40 homes of inventory; the same record showed an average sale-to-list ratio of 102.17%, and 60.87% of sales closed above list. Those signals describe the for-sale market only, not rent comparables, landlord terms, or a property's operating performance. They substantiate tight resale conditions by these measures, which challenges any attempt to read subdued near-term asking-rent momentum as a broad housing-market slowdown. The evidence does not establish that resale pressure caused, or will cause, a rent change.
Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a Census household-rent statistic or a HUD standard. For named wider-market context, Omaha city-context rent was about $1,453, Douglas County context rent was $1,448, and Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA metro-context rent was $1,444; each city-, county-, and metro-scope figure is wider-area context only, not a ZIP substitute. This places the current ZIP index above those three benchmarks without identifying why. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin's median sold price produces a 5.52% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a mechanical comparison of an asking-rent index with a resale median, not a measure of operating costs, financing, taxes, property economics, or future results.
Census housing data add a separate stock lens. The matched ZCTA's ACS estimate is 10,779 housing units; 96 were vacant, producing a 0.89% vacancy rate. The renter share was 12.54% of occupied housing. These are ACS five-year, area-level estimates rather than a live listing inventory. Neither the aggregate vacancy calculation nor the survey's classification of vacant homes proves that a particular rental is unavailable, occupied, or free of concessions. The stock count and renter share describe ZCTA composition, not current advertised supply, and they cannot determine the rent or terms of an individual home.
ACS 2024 five-year data report median gross rent of $1,764 and reported survey uncertainty. This is a survey measure of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow's observed asking-rent index; current ZORI is 5.95% higher. The ZCTA's median household income was $143,676. Applying the 30% screen to the current monthly ZORI produces required annual income of $74,760, while ZORI represents 15.61% of that median income when annualized. That screen is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS also estimates 289 renter households, or 21.57%, paid at least the screen threshold toward gross rent; survey burden does not establish any one household's or unit's circumstances.
Bedroom figures require a third interpretation. HUD's FY 2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The ZIP bedroom figures are modelled estimates that scale current ZIP ZORI by this local HUD ladder; they are not measured bedroom rents. From studio through four-bedroom homes, the modelled monthly range is $1,486 to $2,799. The corresponding HUD ladder spans $1,630 to $3,070. The differing levels should not be read as direct lease quotes, and neither sequence identifies the utility treatment, quality, lease terms, or availability of a particular home.
The evidence is strongest as a comparison of time-stamped aggregates: a cooling ZIP asking-rent history, tight ZIP resale signals, and an income-and-renter-share ZCTA survey profile. It is weakest when translated into an individual-property conclusion. Property-level information needed to test fit includes actual advertised rent, bedroom count, square footage, lease length, included utilities, availability date, concessions, building type, condition, and recent comparable-sale records matched on dates and property types. Geography also needs confirmation because the market label, ZCTA, administrative ladder, and rolling resale sample do not have interchangeable boundaries. The decisive question is whether a specific home's lease facts and sale evidence align with these separate aggregate measures, rather than whether any headline value can substitute for them.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP's Zillow history shows that the latest same-month rent change is materially slower than its multi-year annualized changes, so cooling describes deceleration rather than a decline. Complete period coverage and modest historical return variability strengthen confidence that the observed slowdown is measurable, but they do not turn an index history into a forecast, unit quote, or investment conclusion.","title":"Rent path has cooled, not reversed"},{"body":"Redfin's direct resale record combines short marketing time, thin supply, and an above-list average sale-to-list ratio, while current asking-rent momentum is subdued. This conflicts with a single broad-market reading and makes the contrast decision-relevant. The for-sale signals are neither rental transactions nor evidence that resale conditions determine subsequent lease pricing.","title":"Resale pressure and rent momentum diverge"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards answer different questions: a blended observed asking-rent index, a survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, and a bedroom-specific administrative benchmark. The income screen and burden estimate apply aggregate arithmetic and survey results. Neither establishes individual applicant qualification, a specific household's budget, or the affordability of a listed unit.","title":"Affordability requires source-specific reading"},{"body":"The bedroom ladder is created by scaling the ZIP's current ZORI using local HUD relationships. It maintains a consistent aggregate pattern across bedroom sizes but leaves every displayed bedroom value as a modelled estimate. Actual asking rent may differ with utility treatment, lease terms, size, condition, availability timing, concessions, and property type.","title":"Bedroom amounts are modelled rather than measured"}],"risks":["ZORI, matched ZCTA ACS, the HUD area ladder, and Redfin ZIP resale records have different definitions, samples, boundaries, and timing, so similarly sized dollar amounts are not interchangeable comparables.","The ACS vacancy and renter-burden measures are aggregates with survey uncertainty; they cannot demonstrate the availability, concession level, tenant burden, or rent of any particular unit.","Modelled bedroom rents inherit the ZIP index and HUD ladder assumptions. They are especially vulnerable to mismatch when a property's utility package, size, condition, or lease structure differs from the aggregate.","The rent-to-price screen excludes expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, ownership structure, and property-specific turnover. Historical cooling and resale liquidity are past observations, not projections of a purchase or lease outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"The five-digit market label links Zillow's ZIP-level index to a matched Census ZCTA for survey context, but their boundaries and purposes differ. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area, while USPS delivery ZIPs are mail-delivery constructs. Therefore, the ACS values contextualize the Zillow index without serving as a boundary-identical count of listed rentals or a unit-level measure.","q":"Why is the ZCTA caveat material?"},{"a":"No. The reported same-month changes remain positive at each stated horizon, but the latest annual change is much smaller than the longer-horizon annualized changes. With complete coverage and contained prior variability, the record supports a measured description of cooling. It does not say whether the next monthly observation will rise or fall.","q":"Does the history show rent falling?"},{"a":"It simply joins annualized ZIP ZORI and Redfin's median sold price into a cross-source screening ratio. It omits property-level operating costs, taxes, financing, condition, lease terms, and transaction timing. Because the inputs are unlike aggregates from separate market universes, the calculation cannot establish property economics or a future outcome.","q":"What does the rent-to-price screen establish?"},{"a":"Unit-level comparison requires facts absent from the aggregates: advertised rent, bedroom count, square footage, utilities included, lease length, concessions, availability date, condition, building type, and comparable-sale dates and property types. Checking those facts does not make the aggregate measures interchangeable; it tests whether a particular listing or sale resembles the evidence universe being referenced.","q":"Which property-level facts remain unobserved?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1443.025312},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1454.524813},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1480.568768},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1500.022858},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1518.196889},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1534.558673},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1532.769582},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1556.260661},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1559.502821},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1564.7824},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1559.597522},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1574.170187},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1584.477365},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1604.70972},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1588.735235},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1601.452529},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1594.075461},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1627.437643},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1638.973027},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1659.2051},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1672.554523},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1678.641119},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1696.991971},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1706.843238},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1716.932783},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1711.974036},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1724.267192},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1725.469857},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1735.25113},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1737.767972},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1749.762425},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1756.201118},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1757.15201},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1755.718406},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1762.568518},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1758.619941},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1768.338819},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1774.597332},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1797.74391},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1809.884659},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1824.01338},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1821.08545},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1817.705571},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1803.565094},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1811.321066},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1824.170192},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1837.626278},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1841.498639},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1838.070556},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1847.585848},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1851.540646},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1860.288254},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1861.312581},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1869.276282},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1877.470374},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1892.97293},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1895.232012},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1895.107864},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1887.031535},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1891.757095},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1894.353224},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1890.261961},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1878.519549},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1868.874359}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1860.288254,"endRent":1868.874359,"change":0.004615470200135974,"cagr":0.004615470200135974},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1725.469857,"endRent":1868.874359,"change":0.08311040695276528,"cagr":0.026969572310444168},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1500.022858,"endRent":1868.874359,"change":0.24589725352038583,"cagr":0.044952250614785916}},"maxDrawdown":-0.01390734898582957,"annualizedVolatility":0.021295980789661054,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}