Resale pressure is the clearest tension in this ZIP. The direct Redfin rolling-three-month ZIP observation through June 30, 2026 reports a $373,047 median sold price, up 5.08% year over year, alongside 78 homes sold. Median marketing time was 11 days, months of supply was 1.2, and the average sale-to-list ratio was 102.27%; 68.49% of sales closed above list. These are direct ZIP for-sale/resale signals, not rental transactions. They appear firmer than the recent slowing in asking-rent growth. That contrast challenges any simple reading of rent momentum and renter burden, but it neither resolves household affordability nor establishes the economics of a particular rental property.
The five-digit label 68154 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matching Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, and it is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,246 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. In the Omaha city context, the contextual asking-rent figure is $1,453.48; in Douglas County context it is $1,448; and in the Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA metro context it is $1,444. The ZIP figure is below each wider benchmark, but those geographies are context rather than ZIP observations.
ZORI should not be substituted for either survey rent or HUD standards. The ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched ZCTA puts median gross rent at $1,220, and it covers occupied renter homes while including selected utilities. The asking-rent index is slightly above that survey median, a cross-universe difference rather than a like-for-like comparison. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,370, above current ZORI, but it is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The Omaha city and Douglas County figures above are wider asking-rent context, not substitutes for the ZIP index.
To create a bedroom view, the ZIP ZORI has been scaled using the local HUD ladder. The resulting modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $991 for a studio, $1,046 for one bedroom, $1,246 for two bedrooms, $1,655 for three bedrooms, and $1,864 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The HUD tiering used in this construction remains an administrative standard, not an inventory of asking rents. The construction anchors the two-bedroom estimate to ZIP ZORI; it does not establish a quoted rent, utilities package, unit condition, or current availability in any bedroom category. A reader should not infer a unit-level lease price from these scaled figures.
History points to stable growth, yet it also shows deceleration from the longer path. Exact same-month ZIP ZORI changes were 2.58% annualized at the one-year horizon, 3.16% annualized at three years, and 5.05% annualized at five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the positive longer-run record but breaks from its earlier faster pace. Coverage is 100%, annualized monthly-return variability is 1.83%, and maximum drawdown is -1.13%. Those are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The low realized variability and shallow drawdown support more confidence in the representativeness of one current index snapshot than a highly erratic series would, while leaving its current level subject to source and unit-mix limits.
The transparent national discovery ranks make the same distinction. Among history-eligible ZIPs, 68154 ranks 56th for stability, 1,059th for momentum, and 265th on the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. These ranks are discovery devices based on historical readings, not investment recommendations. On the arithmetic 30% required-income screen, $1,246 in monthly asking rent equals $49,840 in annual income, compared with the matched-ZCTA median household income of $81,385. This screen is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Nor does it override the ACS burden result: 2,229 renter households, or 48.25%, meet or exceed that burden threshold. The aggregate burden evidence does not describe any individual tenant’s finances.
Housing stock and vacancy evidence add an important aggregate constraint. The ACS ZCTA contains 11,071 housing units and reports a 2.69% vacancy rate, including 110 units classified vacant for rent. Renter-occupied homes account for 42.88% of occupied units. The structure count includes 6,423 single-family units and 1,207 units in large multifamily structures. The renter population used in the burden measure is a survey population of occupied homes, whereas the vacancy categories count units. Neither the vacant-for-rent count nor the area-wide vacancy rate proves that a particular unit is available, vacant, rentable, or affordable. Likewise, the ACS five-year window and its sampling uncertainty limit how precisely these counts characterize the present month.
Redfin separately reports an inventory figure of 31 homes, down 35.04% year over year. That direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence is compatible with the fast marketing and above-list sale signals, but it remains a for-sale observation, not lease evidence. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price is 4.01%, a cross-source screening ratio only; it does not measure expenses, financing, occupancy, taxes, property condition, or property economics. Material limits remain because ACS is a five-year survey, ZORI is a blended index, HUD is an administrative ladder, and Redfin is a rolling sales view. Do the current advertised rent, bedroom count, lease term, included utilities, actual availability, condition, and specific sale or listing terms match the cross-source screens?
","findings":[{"body":"The direct ZIP resale reading shows price appreciation, brisk marketing, limited supply, and sales above list, while the asking-rent history remains positive but has slowed relative to longer horizons. This is a cross-universe tension, not a contradiction: Redfin observes resale activity and ZORI summarizes asking rents. The comparison should not be used to infer a lease outcome, a property’s expenses, or a property performance measure.","title":"For-sale evidence is tighter than rent momentum"},{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index is below the supplied city, county, and metro context figures, while the matched-ZCTA ACS median gross rent sits nearby. These comparisons answer different questions because city, county, and metro values are wider context, ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, and ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities. Nearness between the figures does not make them interchangeable.","title":"The ZIP asking-rent index trails wider context"},{"body":"The complete history coverage, low annualized variability, and modest maximum drawdown describe a comparatively stable recorded index path. Its current one-year increase is still positive, so direction does not reverse the longer record, but it is slower than the three- and five-year rates. The stability and momentum ranks are transparent discovery indicators among eligible ZIPs, not forecasts or investment conclusions.","title":"Historical stability does not erase recent deceleration"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen places the current asking-rent index below the matched-ZCTA median household income when expressed as required annual income. Yet the ACS burden measure reports nearly half of renter households at or above that threshold. Area-level vacancy and vacant-for-rent counts add supply context but cannot establish affordability, availability, or lease terms for a particular home.","title":"Income arithmetic and burden statistics give different signals"}],"risks":["Mixing ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR as if each were a current unit quote can misstate utility treatment, occupied-home coverage, bedroom differences, and the relevant reporting period.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP, and the ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty; its estimates may not precisely characterize a specific current listing.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale figures record completed for-sale activity, not rental transactions. Strong sale-to-list and marketing-time signals cannot establish rent demand, vacancy, expenses, or performance for a rental unit.","Area-wide rent burden and vacant-for-rent counts do not identify tenant income, landlord concessions, unit condition, bedroom count, lease duration, or whether any particular advertised home is actually available."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a matched-ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Different universes, timing, utility treatment, and bedroom treatment mean the figures are informative side by side but are not interchangeable measures of a current lease quote.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, and HUD show different rent figures?"},{"a":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates generated by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are never measured bedroom rents. The two-bedroom estimate matches the ZORI anchor by construction, while the other tiers carry HUD-based proportions. They do not identify any advertised unit, included utilities, unit condition, or actual availability.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for available apartments or homes?"},{"a":"The history block describes observations through its stated endpoint. Positive one-, three-, and five-year same-month changes coexist with a slower recent pace than the longer horizon. Full coverage, low variability, and a small drawdown support confidence in the stability of the recorded index, not confidence in a future rent level. The scores and ranks are discovery aids, not forecasts.","q":"What does the historical record say about confidence in the current ZORI reading?"},{"a":"Redfin can describe ZIP resale price and transaction or marketing conditions, but it cannot serve as rental comparables or property operating results. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screen. Current advertised rent, bedroom count, utilities, lease duration, availability, condition, and sale or listing terms remain property-level items not established by these aggregates.","q":"How should the Redfin resale figures and rent-to-price screen be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":950.562798},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":954.677865},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":962.594698},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":973.958528},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":989.99993},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":995.166251},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1010.823205},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1021.003968},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1037.290284},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1042.63031},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1051.32709},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1049.084535},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1052.873371},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1056.351944},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1069.608528},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1075.138773},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1078.675144},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1079.731752},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1078.630475},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1087.492785},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1099.771696},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1114.242321},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1123.796907},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1129.674711},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1130.71852},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1131.768551},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1130.357923},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1134.884821},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1134.121725},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1135.980695},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1138.612843},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1140.92438},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1140.567357},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1142.307316},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1141.036408},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1148.857409},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1157.192869},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1166.616382},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1174.781271},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1179.534673},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1195.480297},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1201.794734},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1200.880918},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1190.367959},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1188.266448},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1190.340522},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1193.438333},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1200.75935},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1201.119495},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1212.582711},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1214.926607},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1214.421728},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1211.418902},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1215.025745},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1223.361278},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1236.849507},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1243.904552},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1246.264804},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1249.980003},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1246.628785},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1248.969983},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1241.840367},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1242.478859},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1245.748202}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1214.421728,"endRent":1245.748202,"change":0.02579538333161313,"cagr":0.02579538333161313},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1134.884821,"endRent":1245.748202,"change":0.09768690086304344,"cagr":0.0315560421591099},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":973.958528,"endRent":1245.748202,"change":0.2790567218073581,"cagr":0.050456229446463885}},"maxDrawdown":-0.011256735961034714,"annualizedVolatility":0.01827568426928879,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}