At the Zillow endpoint, ZIP market identifier 70806 posts a $1,328 monthly ZORI, 5.6% above the same month a year earlier. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quoted rent for a particular available home. At the arithmetic 30% rent-to-income screen, that monthly index equates to $53,120 in annual household income, just below the matched area’s $55,642 median household income; the resulting relation is 28.6%. Yet 54.3% of surveyed renter households pay at least that share of income toward gross rent. The central tension is that the ZIP-wide screen sits near the income midpoint while a majority of existing renters report higher gross-rent burden. This is an aggregate comparison, not affordability advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence about any household.
That tension cannot be resolved by substituting one rent source for another. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,034. This is a survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, rather than a current asking-rent series. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP; here, 70806 is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,204, and the Zillow index is 10.3% higher. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Differences among these universes can reflect timing, occupancy, utilities, and measure construction; they do not establish a price for a particular unit.
History gives the current reading context but no forecast. Through 2026-06-01, the exact same-month annualized changes are 5.6% over 1 year, 3.6% over 3 years, and 4.3% over 5 years. The latest rise therefore confirms the longer upward path and exceeds both longer-period paces rather than breaking from them. Month-to-month annualized return variability of 2.8% shows that the series has not moved identically each month, so one current index merits moderate rather than absolute precision. Separately, the largest peak-to-trough decline was 3.9%, a contained historical setback that still demonstrates reversals. Coverage is 98.9%, supporting continuity of the backward-looking measurement. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 460 for momentum, 1,216 for stability, and 376 for balanced performance, where lower is higher. These are descriptive discovery tools, not investment recommendations.
Bedroom guidance must be read as a model. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,138 for a studio, $1,174 for one bedroom, $1,328 for two bedrooms, $1,667 for three bedrooms, and $2,143 for four bedrooms. The progression shows the assumed relative bedroom ladder, while its two-bedroom point happens to match the all-type ZIP index used as the base. It does not show which unit types were advertised, their condition, whether utilities were included, or how many listings informed each bedroom segment. HUD’s role in this calculation is a relative administrative scaling device, not a claim that a HUD standard is a market asking rent.
Supply conditions in the matched ZCTA add a second tension to the burden data. Of 14,889 housing units, renter households account for 57.0% of occupied homes, and the reported vacancy rate is 18.2%. The 794 units classified vacant for rent are a category count, not verified presently available listings, and cannot prove availability, terms, or condition for a particular unit. The stock contains more single-family units than large multifamily units, so no single property type represents the whole ZIP. A sizable vacancy reading alongside broad renter burden can coexist because these measures cover different units and households at a survey point. It should temper confidence in a single ZIP asking-rent snapshot without turning the vacancy data into proof of a concession or leasing outcome.
Wider geographies provide direction, not substitutes for ZIP evidence: the Baton Rouge city rental context is $1,383, the East Baton Rouge Parish county rental context is $1,386, and the Baton Rouge, LA metro rental context is $1,403; each is above the ZIP ZORI. In that same contextual comparison, the ZIP’s renter share and vacancy rate exceed the city and county context readings, while the metro rent-to-income measure is lower than the ZIP arithmetic screen. These city, county, and metro figures describe broader scopes, not ZIP-level asking-rent observations or local property comparables. The comparison shows that this ZIP is not simply a copy of its broader rental context, while leaving the source-universe distinctions intact.
Resale data supply a partly confirming but cautionary counterpoint. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation—not rental transactions—shows a $316,928 median sold price, up 5.7% year over year, across 83 homes sold. Marketing took a median 45 days; inventory was 116 homes and months of supply was 4.2. Sale-to-list evidence belongs only to that resale universe: average sale-to-list was 96.1%, 7.4% of sales closed above list, and 23.0% went off market within two weeks. The sale-price gain broadly confirms the current rent increase, but the below-list average and measured marketing time challenge any unqualified reading of rent history as resale-market urgency. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 5.0%, solely a cross-source screening ratio, not a measure of property-level economics.
Each measure has a different observation frame: ZORI is an index, ACS is a ZCTA survey, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin records ZIP resales. None supplies unit-specific lease terms, unit condition, utilities, concessions, bedroom count, ownership costs, or transaction attributes. A property-level review would therefore need the actual advertised rent and availability, lease duration and renewal terms, included utilities, exact bedroom configuration, and documented recent sale comparables for the property type and condition under review. It would also need to separate a listing’s location from the ZIP aggregate and a sale from a rental transaction. The useful unresolved question is whether a specific unit’s current terms align with the modelled bedroom estimate and the household-income arithmetic, rather than whether an aggregate index alone settles the decision.
","findings":[{"body":"The $1,328 Zillow ZORI converts to $53,120 annual income under the 30% arithmetic screen, versus $55,642 median household income. However, 54.3% of surveyed renter households are rent burdened at 30% or more of gross rent. Because the income screen uses current asking rent and the burden measure uses occupied households’ ACS gross rent, the contrast flags aggregate pressure rather than an applicant-level conclusion.","title":"Aggregate income screen conflicts with renter burden"},{"body":"Same-month rent growth measured 5.6% over 1 year, exceeding the 3.6% and 4.3% annualized paces over 3 and 5 years. That confirms rather than reverses the historical upward path. The record’s 2.8% variability and 3.9% maximum drawdown mean a current index is informative but not exact. Its 98.9% coverage supports continuity; history remains backward-looking, not predictive.","title":"Recent rent gains exceed the longer historical pace"},{"body":"An 18.2% ACS vacancy rate and 794 units vacant for rent should not be read as a list of available properties or concession evidence. Redfin’s ZIP resale series independently showed a 5.7% sale-price increase, but average sale-to-list was 96.1% and median marketing time was 45 days. Those resale facts align with rent’s annual increase while moderating any claim that the combined evidence signals uniform urgency.","title":"Vacancy and resale evidence create a mixed read"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent of $1,034 is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes with selected utilities; it is not Zillow asking rent. The $1,204 local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, also not asking rent. The reported studio-through-four-bedroom ZIP figures are modelled by scaling ZORI with that HUD ladder. They help compare assumed bedroom levels but do not measure advertised rents by bedroom.","title":"Bedroom estimates and rent sources are not interchangeable"}],"risks":["The ZORI, ACS, HUD, and Redfin figures arise from different time frames, populations, and definitions. Treating their dollar amounts as interchangeable rental comps could misstate a unit’s position.","The Census ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its ACS estimates carry survey uncertainty. Occupied-household results may not represent the current mix, timing, or terms of advertised rentals.","Vacant-for-rent counts and the overall vacancy rate are survey categories, not a live availability feed. They cannot establish a particular property’s condition, concessions, lease pricing, or landlord willingness to negotiate.","The annualized ZORI-to-sale-price percentage omits property expenses, financing, taxes, condition adjustment, and transaction-level rent linkage. Historical rent and resale observations are backward-looking measurements, so they do not determine future outcomes."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow measures a current typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, whereas ACS reports a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ACS geography is a matched ZCTA, which is statistical rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Timing, occupancy, utilities, and measure construction differ, so neither amount replaces the other.","q":"Why is Zillow rent higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not a survey of asking rents. The figures show relative assumptions from studios through four bedrooms; unit size, condition, utilities, and listing mix can make an actual asking rent differ.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the ZIP median sold price, joining a rent index with a for-sale resale statistic solely for cross-source screening. It omits property expenses, financing, condition, lease terms, and transaction-specific rents. Consequently, it cannot establish property-level economics, valuation, or an outcome for a particular home.","q":"What does the Redfin screening ratio indicate?"},{"a":"Confirm the actual advertised rent, availability, bedroom count, utilities, lease duration, concessions, and condition. In a sale context, compare documented recent sales of similar property type and condition rather than treating rental evidence as a transaction comp. Also confirm that the precise location falls within the relevant geography and distinguish current listing facts from aggregate historical measures.","q":"What should be checked before using this ZIP-level report for a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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