ZIP 70816’s clearest tension is the gap between its current rent signal and its wider-area context. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $1,093 per month, up 1.97% from the same month a year earlier. That is a positive latest reading, but it is an index of typical observed asking rents rather than a lease-specific quote, and it should be read as a present market measurement rather than a forecast. The question raised by this ZIP is not whether the latest move is positive—it is—but how that modest current rise fits a longer growth record, a lower ZIP-level price than broader contexts, and household survey measures that describe a different rental universe.
Through the stated June history endpoint, exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 1.97% over one year, 2.58% over three years, and 3.55% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path, while its latest pace is gentler than the reported longer-horizon rates. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.68%, and the maximum drawdown was 3.47%. Coverage was 99.02% across 101 observations, so the record’s continuity is well documented. The transparent national discovery ranks within the history-eligible ZIP universe were 1,397 for momentum, 1,010 for stability, and 1,095 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher. Those ranks and all history measures are backward-looking, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The recorded variability and drawdown mean a reader can place qualified, rather than absolute, confidence in one current rent snapshot.
Definitions explain why the rent figures do not align. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,136 and it surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That differs in population, timing, and included costs from ZORI. The FY2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $1,204; it is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. None of these source universes establishes a lease-specific price.
The bedroom ladder is useful only as a model. It scales ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder to produce modelled monthly estimates: $937 for a studio, $966 for one bedroom, $1,093 for two bedrooms, $1,372 for three bedrooms, and $1,764 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. Their alignment with the ZIP index and the local HUD standard creates a consistent scaling framework, but it does not verify a listing’s room count, utilities, condition, lease terms, concessions, or effective payment.
The 30% required-income screen turns the current asking-rent index into an arithmetic annual figure of $43,720. It is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA median household income is $67,353. This comparison uses an area-wide household median, not a renter income distribution. In the ACS renter survey, 4,104 of 9,010 renter-occupied households, or 45.55%, were estimated to spend at least 30% of income on rent. That burden statistic cannot prove the burden, affordability, or eligibility attached to any particular unit.
Housing stock and vacancy supply a separate aggregate lens. The matched ZCTA has 20,768 housing units and 2,779 vacant units, producing a 13.38% vacancy rate. The packet also separates single-family and large multifamily structures, but aggregate categories do not establish a unit’s availability or terms. For citywide context, Baton Rouge city’s rent context is $1,382.82; for county context, East Baton Rouge Parish’s is $1,386; and for metro context, Baton Rouge, LA metro’s is $1,403. The ZIP index is below each wider reading, a geographic contrast rather than property-level evidence.
Limits are especially important because the measures operate on different dates, geographies, populations, and definitions. ZORI reports an asking-rent index; ACS describes occupied renter homes in the matched statistical area; HUD supplies a standard; and city, county, and metro figures are wider context only. The history documents what the ZIP index recorded, not what it will record. A property-level comparison still requires confirmation of the advertised monthly price, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, concessions, deposits, fees, available date, and live availability. The available evidence does not identify whether a particular home shares the index’s rental-type mix or whether quoted terms change the effective cost. Which current listing details actually match the aggregate comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"Through the June endpoint, same-month ZORI growth is positive across the one-, three-, and five-year windows, but the latest annual rate is the smallest of those reported horizons. The complete history still had annualized monthly-return variability and a peak-to-trough decline, so its positive path should not be converted into a projection or treated as a guarantee for any advertised home.","title":"Positive history, gentler current pace"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS median gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR answer different questions. ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rents across rental types; ACS reports a five-year survey median among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; HUD supplies an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The gap among their reported amounts should therefore be treated as a scope-and-timing difference before it is interpreted as a pricing signal.","title":"The rent measures answer different questions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates produced by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not observed bedroom rents, and they cannot verify a listing’s actual bedroom classification, included utilities, lease conditions, concessions, or effective monthly payment. The equality of the two-bedroom model and the ZIP index follows the reported scaling framework, not a count of observed two-bedroom listings.","title":"Bedroom figures are a scaling model"},{"body":"The ZCTA housing counts show vacant units, while the wider Baton Rouge city, East Baton Rouge Parish, and Baton Rouge metro rent readings provide only context. A vacancy count does not establish that a particular unit is available, affordable, or comparable. Likewise, the ZIP’s lower asking-rent index than those wider readings describes a geographic contrast, not a property-level valuation.","title":"Aggregate vacancy and context do not identify a unit"}],"risks":["The matched Census ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Its survey households and boundaries may not map perfectly to the ZIP market identifier used for Zillow ZORI.","ACS estimates summarize a five-year survey period and carry sampling uncertainty, whereas Zillow’s current reading and historical sequence are observations through a later endpoint. Timing and universe differences restrict direct trend comparisons.","The required-income calculation uses a 30% share of asking rent and is only arithmetic. It omits household-specific income, utilities, fees, concessions, deposits, credit standards, and lease terms.","Vacant-unit totals, renter burden, and broader geography benchmarks are aggregate measures. They cannot prove the availability, affordability, condition, or tenant experience of any individual property."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level, blended index of typical observed asking rents across rental types. The matched ACS ZCTA figure is a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is statistical and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the measures should not be treated as interchangeable.","q":"Why do the Zillow, ACS, and HUD rent figures differ?"},{"a":"Each bedroom amount is a modelled monthly ZIP estimate obtained by scaling the direct ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent. Consequently, the ladder is useful for a consistent comparison framework but is not measured evidence of a specific listing’s bedroom rent.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be used?"},{"a":"The $43,720 figure is the annual income that results when the monthly ZIP asking-rent index is placed at 30% of income. It is a mechanical screen, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden estimate describes surveyed renter households and cannot determine whether any individual household or lease is burdened.","q":"What does the required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"No. The one-, three-, and five-year same-month changes, variability, drawdown, coverage, and discovery ranks are backward-looking measurements from the observed Zillow sequence. The latest positive annual change agrees with the longer positive direction but is slower than the reported longer-horizon rates. This supports historical context only, not an investment conclusion or future-rent prediction.","q":"Does the historical record provide a forecast?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":842.427072},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":845.47166},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":848.930506},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":829.57522},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":834.39784},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":846.962817},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":844.444426},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":850.583921},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":847.292913},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":841.670358},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":838.013301},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":843.912135},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":855.54406},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":861.196075},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":866.954624},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":865.170923},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":866.599568},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":865.563247},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":859.529456},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":853.091444},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":851.119296},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":856.760648},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":861.799216},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":856.253763},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":848.502156},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":854.442927},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":854.264829},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":854.78287},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":863.247338},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":869.338307},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":874.070821},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":872.226944},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":873.817697},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":873.862905},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":877.510508},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":877.333826},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":877.971698},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":883.807882},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":898.134267},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":912.614187},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":917.734378},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":923.534459},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":934.036095},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":954.597317},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":970.962104},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":978.545314},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":988.295179},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":999.230318},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1015.537033},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1015.615844},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1010.809573},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1003.64278},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1011.278431},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1016.161583},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1017.48475},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1002.009199},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":992.12487},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":984.88979},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":982.81249},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":982.199214},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":986.880129},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":997.480439},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1005.816075},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1017.376126},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1012.335094},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1005.496656},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":991.801772},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":994.840689},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1006.607373},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1018.793784},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1018.767672},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1014.85272},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1008.365901},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1011.211791},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1010.642514},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1012.498357},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1019.119191},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1036.402141},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1056.593963},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1064.878958},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1070.082244},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1064.176234},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1073.757439},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1075.042962},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1078.56633},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1072.496813},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1075.442769},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1070.917596},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1071.67298},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1064.491771},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1059.632556},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1059.121978},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1056.010181},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1060.894818},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1059.350448},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1065.709878},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1070.729455},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1077.82948},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1080.879254},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1088.227876},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1092.733161}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":101,"firstPeriod":"2018-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":102,"coverageRatio":0.9901960784313726,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1071.67298,"endRent":1092.733161,"change":0.019651686095510268,"cagr":0.019651686095510268},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1012.335094,"endRent":1092.733161,"change":0.07941843316161878,"cagr":0.02580137469844046},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":917.734378,"endRent":1092.733161,"change":0.19068565719568165,"cagr":0.03552222505983704}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03467917922111363,"annualizedVolatility":0.026752182507905124,"consecutiveReturnCount":99}}