At the supplied June 2026 endpoint, ZIP 70817 has a central screen-versus-burden tension: Zillow ZORI is $1,656 per month, while the supplied median household income makes its broad income comparison look less strained than the renter survey does. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, rather than a quote for an available home. For wider context only, the City of Baton Rouge city-scope rent is $1,383, the East Baton Rouge Parish county-scope rent is $1,386, and the Baton Rouge, LA metro-scope rent is $1,403. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider-area context, not substitutes for this ZIP's asking-rent index. The gap identifies a price level above each named context, but it does not explain who is paying a given lease or what any individual home commands.
This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched ACS five-year survey ending in 2024 reports median gross rent of $1,426. That measure describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it is a different universe from ZORI, whose current index remains above it. The FY 2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,204, placing ZORI 37.5% above it. HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and neither the ACS value nor HUD standard should be treated as a current listing quote.
To put unit size on a common local ladder, the studio modelled ZIP estimate is $1,419, followed by $1,463 for one bedroom, $1,656 for two bedrooms, $2,078 for three bedrooms, and $2,672 for four bedrooms. These figures scale the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder, which preserves the supplied bedroom relationships while anchoring the overall level to the ZIP index. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The ladder therefore helps compare the relative monthly screen across sizes, but it cannot establish a unit's actual condition, utility treatment, lease concessions, furnishing, availability, or quoted rent.
Using the stated 30% rent-to-income screen, the current monthly index corresponds to $66,240 of annual income, versus a ZIP median household income of $102,639; the resulting asking-rent-to-income measure is 19.4%. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The renter-focused ACS evidence tells a different descriptive story: of 2,732 occupied renter households, 1,825, or 66.8%, report gross-rent burdens at or above that burden threshold. Because this is a five-year survey of occupied renters while the income median spans households and ZORI is current asking-rent evidence, the contrast is a screening tension, not evidence about a particular household, lease, or unit.
Housing stock reinforces why the broad income view cannot be mapped directly to renters. The ZCTA survey counts 14,194 housing units and 504 vacant units, a 3.6% overall vacancy rate. Its structure mix includes 11,782 single-family units and 444 units in large multifamily structures. A distinct vacant-for-rent survey category is also present. These are survey categories rather than live vacancy listings: they neither show that a specific unit is available nor prove a particular rent, and the mix alone says nothing about the condition or operating terms of any unit. The stock data describe the area-wide composition of homes, not the competitive position of an individual rental.
Backward-looking ZORI history provides the directional check. Exact same-month growth was 4.6% over one year, compared with annualized 2.4% over three years and 2.7% over five years. The recent direction therefore confirms a longer record of positive rent movement and accelerates beyond both longer-run rates; it is not a forecast. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.8%, and the maximum drawdown was -3.8%. Coverage reached 98.0% of expected months. That continuity supports use of the history as a trend record, yet the observed variability and drawdown mean one current index snapshot warrants bounded confidence rather than certainty. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 829 for momentum, 1,169 for stability, and 647 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher; these ranks are not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Direct ZIP for-sale evidence does not transact rentals, but it tests whether the rent signal has an obvious parallel in resale data. In Redfin's rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, the median sold price was $314,929, up 1.6% year over year; 155 homes sold with a median 52 days on market. Inventory was 151 homes and months of supply was 2.9, versus 3.3 in the Baton Rouge, LA metro context. Months of supply describes listed resale inventory at the then-current sales pace, so the ZIP reading signals a shorter resale supply window than that metro context, not rental availability. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.47%, while 11.3% of sales closed above list. The recent rent-index rise is therefore not mirrored one-for-one by price change or average sale-to-list evidence. The 6.31% annualized ZORI-to-median-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and does not measure property-level economics.
None of these datasets supplies a property-level lease comp or a full operating statement. ZORI is blended asking-rent evidence, ACS is survey evidence for occupied homes, HUD is a program standard, and Redfin is a direct resale observation; their agreement or disagreement cannot establish causation. Decision-specific checks remain concrete: confirm the unit's current advertised rent, bedroom count, property type, square footage, included utilities, fees, concessions, lease term, available date, and whether it falls within the relevant delivery geography. For a purchase comparison, match the sold home's list price, sale date, days on market, condition, and concessions rather than attaching ZIP averages to the asset. Does the particular unit's verified lease and resale record still fit the tension between the broad income screen, renter burden, and divergent rent-versus-sale signals?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP-level median household income sits above the annual income implied by applying the 30% screen to ZORI, yet the ACS renter survey reports a substantially burdened majority. This is not a contradiction resolved by a single ratio: the income median describes all households, the burden statistic describes occupied renters, and ZORI is a current blended asking-rent index. The screen is arithmetic rather than a leasing standard.","title":"Broad income screen and renter burden diverge"},{"body":"The latest same-month ZORI increase is faster than the supplied three- and five-year annualized rates, so the recent direction accelerates rather than breaks from the longer positive path. Near-complete historical coverage makes that comparison more continuous, but observed month-to-month variability and a previous drawdown limit confidence in treating the latest index point as fixed. Discovery ranks organize past observations only; they do not forecast rent or resale outcomes.","title":"Rent momentum has accelerated, not reversed"},{"body":"The displayed studio-through-four-bedroom figures are produced by scaling the ZIP's blended ZORI level with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They retain a consistent size relationship for a monthly screen, but they are not observed bedroom rents. A property can differ because its lease terms, utility inclusions, size, furnishing, condition, and availability are not represented by the model.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a model, not a rent comp set"},{"body":"Redfin directly observes ZIP resale activity in a rolling three-month window, not rental transactions. The combination of sales count, days on market, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list signals characterizes liquidity and pricing in the for-sale universe. Comparing annualized ZORI with the median sold price gives a cross-source screen for divergence, but it excludes operating costs, property attributes, and transaction-specific terms.","title":"Resale liquidity does not mirror rent growth"}],"risks":["The ZORI figure is a blended, typical asking-rent index across rental types. It cannot identify a particular home's bedroom count, amenities, condition, concessions, included utilities, lease term, or availability.","ACS estimates pertain to a matched ZCTA statistical area and a multiyear household survey, not an identical USPS delivery ZIP. Sampling uncertainty, timing, and selected utilities limit direct comparison with current asking rents.","Overall and for-rent vacancy categories describe survey-classified units, not live listings. They cannot confirm that a particular dwelling is available, indicate its rent, or establish whether observed vacancy relates to tenant demand, owner decisions, or property quality.","Redfin resale measures reflect properties sold or listed during the supplied rolling period. They may differ from rental stock, while the ZORI-to-price screen lacks expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, and unit-level income data."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI represents a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD provides an administrative, bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR standard. The bedroom ladder scales ZORI by HUD relationships, so it is modelled rather than measured.","q":"Why are ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards not interchangeable?"},{"a":"The broad income calculation divides annualized current ZORI by median household income, whereas the burden statistic is reported by ACS renter households. Those universes can produce different results without inconsistency. The calculation uses a 30% threshold solely as arithmetic; it says neither whether an applicant qualifies nor what a specific household pays.","q":"How can the income screen look easier while renter burden is high?"},{"a":"Redfin's rolling-three-month ZIP series is a for-sale observation. Months of supply expresses listed resale inventory relative to the current sales pace, while days on market and sale-to-list describe marketing and transaction pricing. None of those indicators measures rental demand, lease availability, or a property's cash flow, so comparison with ZORI remains a cross-source screen.","q":"What does the resale supply reading mean?"},{"a":"Verify the active advertisement and actual lease terms, including bedroom count, unit type, square footage, utility inclusions, fees, concessions, and availability. For a sold-home comparison, verify property condition, list-to-sale sequence, and sale date. These checks matter because ZIP, ZCTA, ACS, HUD, and resale series do not identify the same property or transaction.","q":"What property-level facts remain unobserved?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1310.470639},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1311.422177},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1297.978494},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1291.872728},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1286.337698},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1301.155731},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1317.816545},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1331.502589},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1337.969623},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1331.164863},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1314.88649},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1301.265908},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1297.577472},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1304.064115},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1324.383591},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1301.198691},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1290.315902},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1287.073272},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1289.615932},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1294.265623},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1298.98577},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1309.734145},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1308.946535},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1305.236249},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1297.376474},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1294.900533},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1286.990141},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1307.107033},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1326.441404},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1355.694211},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1351.561001},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1350.846601},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1358.445448},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1353.696577},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1369.882794},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1361.182187},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1380.71393},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1392.254433},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1431.358711},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1451.368639},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1448.374413},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1432.169179},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1457.620607},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1485.566562},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1497.731281},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1496.753755},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1501.925282},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1525.203437},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1537.469634},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1538.751133},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1528.791523},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1521.051802},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1533.77636},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1540.903479},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1534.238654},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1521.686902},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1525.392888},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1538.093391},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1535.637809},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1527.582793},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1526.938516},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1541.61139},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1543.031047},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1539.832175},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1537.336279},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1543.442844},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1551.272287},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1540.667609},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1533.786716},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1523.814625},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1536.585911},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1545.342058},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1556.340124},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1555.887894},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1573.79396},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1578.914048},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1582.254787},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1581.251048},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1583.584865},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1602.848341},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1609.998536},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1608.054318},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1596.647027},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1587.156345},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1592.731613},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1581.298687},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1583.068565},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1583.217651},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1584.705443},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1587.415758},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1588.606423},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1587.295936},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1591.101916},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1602.141519},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1612.873829},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1625.534778},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1625.623141},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1642.414604},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1644.368794},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1655.678205}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":100,"firstPeriod":"2018-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":102,"coverageRatio":0.9803921568627451,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1583.217651,"endRent":1655.678205,"change":0.04576790433976785,"cagr":0.04576790433976785},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1539.832175,"endRent":1655.678205,"change":0.07523289348074558,"cagr":0.024473778983190364},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1451.368639,"endRent":1655.678205,"c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