At $1,107 in June 2026, ZIP 72204’s Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is the immediate rent signal, but its affordability tension is clear: multiplying the monthly index by twelve and applying the 30% screen produces $44,280 of required annual income, above the matched area’s $40,882 median household income. This is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant-qualification rule. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quote for a particular available home, and it increased 2.6% year over year.
That monthly asking-rent index should not be merged with the ACS measure. In the matched ZCTA, ACS 2024 five-year data reports a $1,064 median gross rent, with a $74 reported margin of error, for occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities. The two measures can differ because they describe different rent concepts and housing populations rather than because either necessarily conflicts with the other. The same survey says 54.4% of renter households paid 30% or more of income toward rent. This burden share describes surveyed households across the ZCTA and does not establish the payment pressure, lease terms, or utility bill for any particular unit.
Broader comparisons place this ZIP’s $1,107 index below every provided wider rent context: the citywide Little Rock context is $1,220, the Pulaski County context is $1,198, and the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR metro context is $1,277. These city, county, and metro figures are contextual benchmarks, not substitutes for ZIP evidence. Their higher readings sharpen the distinction between regional pricing and this ZIP’s lower current index; they do not say why the difference exists or indicate what an individual landlord will ask. Likewise, comparisons of citywide, countywide, or metro-wide vacancy, income, or burden statistics should remain within their wider scopes rather than be used to overwrite the matched-ZCTA measures.
Bedroom figures provide a usable size screen but are not measured bedroom rents. The modelled ZIP estimates—$950 for a studio, $955 for one bedroom, $1,107 for two bedrooms, $1,486 for three bedrooms, and $1,758 for four bedrooms—scale the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent: its ladder runs from $984 for a studio to $1,822 for four bedrooms, with $1,147 at two bedrooms. Accordingly, the ZIP ZORI is 96.5% of the two-bedroom HUD standard. The close alignment is a comparison of distinct measures, not confirmation of a two-bedroom market asking rent.
Rent history tempers reliance on the current reading. Through the June 2026 endpoint, exact same-month ZORI change annualized to 2.6% over one year, versus 3.5% over three years and 5.2% over five years. The direction therefore remains positive, confirming no reversal to decline, yet the latest pace breaks from the stronger longer-run growth rate. Monthly index changes generated 3.7% annualized variability, which means a reader should place less confidence in a single current snapshot than in a smoother series. The deepest backward-looking pullback was 2.7%, and 97.8% coverage supports the calculation. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower is higher, were 982 for momentum, 2,394 for stability, and 1,728 for the balanced measure. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The matched-ZCTA housing stock adds a separate availability caution. Its vacancy rate was 14.7%, and 780 vacant homes were categorized for rent. Renters occupied 41.5% of occupied homes. Stock composition was weighted toward 10,890 single-family units, alongside 832 units in large multifamily structures. These ACS categories summarize the ZCTA, not live listings or unit condition. In particular, vacant-for-rent counts cannot prove that a specific dwelling is currently obtainable, suitable, priced at ZORI, or free of restrictions; the vacancy measure also does not identify concessions, turnover timing, or physical quality.
Resale evidence presents a different tension. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation records a $142,418 median sold price, up 5.5% year over year, across 78 homes sold; median marketing time was 59 days. Inventory was 154 homes and months of supply stood at 6.0. The average sale-to-list ratio was 95.2%, while 19.8% of sales cleared above list. This is a resale market record, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Price appreciation may look firmer than the rent history’s recent deceleration, but the reported supply level, marketing time, and below-list average outcomes challenge any simple strength narrative. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 9.3%, a cross-source screening ratio only—not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Decision use depends on reconciling rather than averaging these sources. First verify an actual available unit’s bedroom count, advertised asking rent, included and tenant-paid utilities, lease length, concessions, deposit, and recurring fees against the modelled ladder and the gross-rent concept. Then check whether it lies within the ZCTA/Zillow market match and whether the live listing remains available. For a purchase-resale screen, verify property-specific sale comparables, list-price revisions, days on market, closing status, and differences between the home and the ZIP-level median. ACS margins of error, ZORI’s blended rental mix, HUD’s administrative purpose, historical variability, and the rolling resale window all limit precision. The useful next question is not whether one headline number “wins,” but which source most closely matches the unit, lease, or resale decision being examined.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI of $1,107 converts to a $44,280 annual income screen at 30%, compared with $40,882 median household income in the matched ZCTA. This is an arithmetic indicator, not tenant advice or qualification. Its tension matters because current asking-rent conditions and household income are not from the same universe or necessarily the same household.","title":"Income screen exceeds the local median"},{"body":"Same-month rent growth remained positive but decelerated: 2.6% over one year trails 3.5% over three years and 5.2% over five years. Monthly changes were uneven at a 3.7% annualized variability rate; the deepest historical setback reached 2.7%. These historical measurements summarize prior observations and do not predict rents or investment outcomes.","title":"Positive rent trend has decelerated"},{"body":"The bedroom ladder is deliberately modelled rather than observed. It places the ZIP at $950 for a studio, $955 for one bedroom, $1,107 for two bedrooms, $1,486 for three bedrooms, and $1,758 for four bedrooms. Scaling ZORI with HUD standards makes sizes comparable, but it does not create listing-level rent measurements or convert HUD standards into market asking rents.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale record combines a $142,418 median sold price and 5.5% annual price gain with six months of supply, a 95.2% average sale-to-list ratio, and 59 median days on market. Price growth contrasts with rent growth’s deceleration, while supply and pricing signals resist a uniformly tight-market reading. The 9.3% rent-price screen remains cross-source only.","title":"Resale signals are mixed against rent momentum"}],"risks":["The current ZORI blends observed asking rents across rental types, while ACS gross rent reflects occupied households with selected utilities and HUD is administrative; direct substitution can distort a unit-level comparison.","ACS ZCTA estimates have sampling uncertainty, and the stated vacancy categories are not live inventory. A vacant-for-rent count cannot establish condition, availability date, unit fit, or the concessions and restrictions attached to a particular address.","The high-variability history classification and slowing one-year growth mean a current ZORI level carries temporal uncertainty. Coverage is strong but incomplete, and backward-looking movements cannot establish future rent direction, performance, or value.","Redfin describes only rolling-three-month ZIP resale activity. Median sold price, supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list measures are not rental transactions, and annual ZORI divided by sold price omits all property-specific economics."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level, typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. They therefore sample different homes, time structures, and rent definitions. The ZCTA match is statistical and does not make either series a USPS delivery-ZIP measure.","q":"Why can ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. Each bedroom figure is a modelled estimate formed by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not an asking-rent survey. The estimates can organize comparison by size, but a current listing’s actual bedroom count, utilities, fees, concessions, and lease terms still need separate verification.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured market rents?"},{"a":"The one-year growth figure is positive, but it is below the corresponding three- and five-year annualized changes, so recent rent momentum has slowed relative to its longer path. The high-variability designation, visible drawdown, and less-than-complete coverage mean history is useful context for current ZORI, not a forecast of later asking rents.","q":"What does the history block say about the current ZORI reading?"},{"a":"No. Redfin reports direct ZIP for-sale outcomes from a rolling three-month observation, including sales and marketing measures; it does not report rents or unit cash flows. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price simply aligns two separately defined ZIP measures for screening. It omits property-specific operating data and is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or yield.","q":"Does the ZORI-to-sale-price screen measure property yield?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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