An immediate cross-market tension frames ZIP 72205. Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI in June 2026 is $1,465, up 2.59% from the same month a year earlier, while the direct ZIP resale median is $252,443, up 10.48%. Annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing it by that resale price produces a 6.96% cross-source screening ratio only. It links unlike datasets for a preliminary scale comparison, not a property-level performance result. The much faster resale-price change means current sale evidence should not be assumed to move in lockstep with this asking-rent index.
The rent history supplies the longer context. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 2.59% over one year, 3.58% over three years, and 5.89% over five years, with 100% stated coverage. The latest rise therefore confirms the positive longer path but decelerates from it. Annualized variability of monthly returns was 2.56%, and maximum drawdown was 2.10%, evidence that past index movement was not free of reversals. Those measures support more confidence in a current snapshot than a highly erratic series would, but not absolute confidence. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 966 for momentum, 816 for stability, and 563 for balanced history; lower ranks are higher. All are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Scope explains why the rent figures are not interchangeable. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. In contrast, the ACS five-year survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; its ZCTA median gross rent is $1,115, 31.4% below the current index. That gap is a source-universe difference, rather than evidence that one figure corrects the other, and the ACS estimate has survey uncertainty.
Bedroom sizing needs a separate interpretation. The current HUD FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $1,147, 27.7% below ZORI; it is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP index produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,257 for a studio, $1,263 for one bedroom, $1,465 for two bedrooms, $1,967 for three bedrooms, and $2,327 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI, not measured bedroom rents. They offer a consistent sizing tool, but they cannot establish the actual asking rent, utilities, condition, or lease terms of any listed home.
The affordability screen combines but does not merge sources. At 30% of gross income, the arithmetic required-income screen for current ZORI is $58,600 annually, against a ZCTA median household income of $68,415. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS reports that 2,011 of 5,139 renter households, or 39.1%, paid at least that share of income toward gross rent; this survey burden statistic does not prove the burden on a particular unit. At the city-context scope, Little Rock reports a $1,220 rent context; at the county-context scope, Pulaski County reports $1,198; and at the metro-context scope, Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR reports $1,277. Those are wider-context comparisons, not ZIP rental observations.
Housing counts place the screen in a broader stock setting. The matched ZCTA has 12,285 housing units and an 11.4% vacancy rate. Its structure mix includes 8,316 single-family units and 1,576 units in large multifamily structures, while 732 vacancies are identified for rent and 135 for sale. These counts distinguish total stock from listed rental choices and resale supply. In particular, a broad ZCTA vacancy rate and the count vacant for rent cannot prove availability, price, condition, or concessions for a particular unit. They are descriptive context alongside the renter-household survey, not a measure of current ZIP ZORI inventory.
The Redfin block provides the direct liquidity read, but strictly for sales. This rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation records a $252,443 median sold price, a 10.48% price change, 124 homes sold, 48 median days on market, 127 homes of inventory, and 3.1 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 97.33%, while 14.06% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale transactions and listing outcomes, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Together, the sales pace and supply quantify resale liquidity, yet the stronger sale-price change versus the latest ZORI change challenges any interpretation that the current rent snapshot mirrors the resale market. It also does not alter the income or burden arithmetic.
Several limits remain material before a property-specific conclusion can be made. ZORI is blended across rental types, ACS is a survey of occupied homes, HUD is a standard, and Redfin reports completed resale activity; none substitutes for unit records. Relevant property-level checks include the current advertised rent, actual bedroom count and layout, lease term, included utilities, fees, concessions, occupancy status, and the date and condition of any comparable sale. The screening ratio should remain cross-source only, and vacancy or renter-burden data should not be assigned to a specific home. The unresolved question is whether the unit’s own terms resemble the source universe being used for comparison.
","findings":[{"body":"Same-month ZORI growth is positive at 2.59%, but it trails the three-year 3.58% and five-year 5.89% annualized readings. Full history coverage and a limited 2.10% maximum drawdown improve the interpretability of the current index, while the slower recent pace is a reason not to project the longer rate forward. The history describes past asking-rent movement only.","title":"Rent path slowed but remained positive"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA median gross rent is lower than ZORI because it is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. ZORI instead tracks a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. The comparison is useful for recognizing different evidence universes, but it does not establish an error in either source or determine any individual lease price.","title":"Household benchmarks are not asking-rent quotes"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom estimates are modelled from ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Consequently, the derived ladder is useful for internally consistent sizing, but it is not observed bedroom-rent evidence and cannot replace listing-level verification.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a model"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month resale data show sale-price growth materially ahead of the latest ZORI change. That creates a cross-market tension rather than a contradiction: Redfin measures for-sale transactions, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list results, while ZORI measures asking rents. The annualized ZORI-to-sale-price figure remains a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-specific result.","title":"Resale evidence moves faster than rent evidence"}],"risks":["The asking-rent index, ACS survey median, and HUD standard refer to different populations and construction rules; treating their dollar gaps as direct pricing errors can misstate a unit-level comparison.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP, so survey-based housing and household conditions may not precisely align with an individual address.","Historical growth, variability, and drawdown are backward-looking measurements. Even complete series coverage cannot convert those measures into a forecast of future asking rents or resale conditions.","Redfin captures for-sale activity rather than rental transactions, and the cross-source screening ratio excludes unit-specific lease terms, operating records, property condition, and transaction details."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,115 ACS figure is not a competing advertisement quote. It is a five-year ZCTA survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow ZORI is a ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types. The 31.4% difference therefore reflects different evidence universes and timing, with ACS survey uncertainty also relevant.","q":"Why is the ACS ZCTA median gross rent lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates obtained by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD itself is an administrative standard, not asking rent, so neither the ladder nor the derived amounts measure current advertised bedroom-specific rents. Listing details and lease terms are required for that.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"The one-, three-, and five-year figures are exact same-month historical changes, while volatility and drawdown summarize past variation. Positive recent growth confirms the direction of the longer record, although the smaller current rate indicates deceleration. Full stated coverage improves continuity, but these measures neither predict future rents nor establish a recommended action.","q":"How should the rent history affect confidence in the current snapshot?"},{"a":"Redfin's rolling three-month ZIP resale observation reports completed home sales and listing-market signals, including price, days on market, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is not evidence about rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-price calculation is a cross-source screening ratio only; it cannot substitute for property-level rent, expense, or transaction records.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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