The central tension in ZIP 72209 is between a steady asking-rent path and a much faster recorded resale-price move. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI—the ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types—stood at $1,151 per month, up 5.6% from the same month a year earlier. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation at its stated endpoint reports a $129,971 median sold price, 20.6% above its year-earlier result. These are not interchangeable markets: ZORI concerns asking rents, while Redfin records for-sale transactions. The five-digit label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history is backward-looking, not a forecast or investment recommendation. Its exact same-month changes were 5.57% over one year, 4.92% over three years, and 5.55% over five years. The latest annual direction therefore confirms rather than breaks from the longer growth path. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.36%, maximum drawdown was a 1.30% decline, and coverage was 98.6%. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 280 for momentum, 478 for stability, and 66 for the balanced measure, where lower is higher. Those contained historical swings give greater confidence that one current index snapshot represents its recorded series, while giving no assurance about a particular unit or later rent.
Source separation explains why rent figures should not be stacked as substitutes. In the matched 2024 ACS five-year ZCTA survey, median gross rent was $965 for occupied renter homes, and it includes selected utilities; that is 19.3% below current ZORI. This ACS statistic is neither a current advertised-rent measure nor a direct measure of Zillow's rental index. The local FY2026 two-bedroom HUD FMR/SAFMR is $1,147, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI with that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $987 for a studio, $992 for one bedroom, $1,151 for two, $1,545 for three, and $1,828 for four. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The income relationship is the renter-side tension. At the 30% required-income screen, supporting the current asking-rent index requires annual income of $46,040, compared with a $40,231 ACS ZCTA median household income; the indexed asking rent equals 34.3% of that median income. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS estimates that 3,685 of 7,426 renter households, or 49.6%, paid at least 30% of income toward rent. That is an aggregate five-year burden measure for renter households, not proof that a particular available unit is unaffordable or that any particular renter is burdened.
At the ZCTA level, the housing stock contains 13,574 units and has an 11.1% aggregate vacancy rate. The renter-occupied share is 61.5%, and 787 vacant units are categorized as for rent. The stock is majority single-family and includes a substantially smaller large-multifamily segment. Those broad counts do not establish that a specific unit is currently available, suitable, or vacant. For comparison only, the city-scope Little Rock context rent is $1,220 monthly, the county-scope Pulaski County context rent is $1,198, and the metro-scope Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway context rent is $1,277; every one is a wider geography rather than a ZIP observation. Each context rent is above the ZIP ZORI reading.
Resale liquidity has its own direct signals. In the rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP observation, 41 homes sold, median marketing time was 64 days, active listings totaled 135, inventory was 84 homes, and months of supply measured 6.2. The same for-sale record showed an average sale-to-list ratio of 91.9%, while 5.0% of sales closed above list price. Along with the median sold price and its change already stated, these figures belong only to the ZIP resale universe. They describe completed sales, listings, supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list outcomes; they are not rental transactions, lease comparables, or evidence of property-level rental economics.
Annualizing current ZIP ZORI and dividing it by the Redfin median sold price produces a 10.6% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The calculation does not pair a specific rental with a specific sale and contains no property-level lease or operating inputs. The larger resale-price change challenges any reading of the steady rent history as a complete description of local housing conditions, while the income screen and renter-burden estimate preserve a separate affordability tension. Neither set of evidence shows that resale-price movement caused rent changes, or that either series determines the result for an individual property.
Important limits remain. Zillow measures a ZIP asking-rent index, ACS supplies survey estimates for occupied renter homes, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and Redfin observes resale activity over a rolling period; their timing and designs differ. ACS estimates also carry reported sampling margins, while the bedroom ladder is a model rather than a rent-comp survey. Property-level interpretation requires checks of the actual bedroom count, current quoted rent and date, lease duration, utility and fee treatment, concessions, condition, availability, and genuinely comparable recent sales. Do the actual unit's terms and directly comparable evidence match these ZIP-level rent and resale signals closely enough to use them as context?
","findings":[{"body":"Direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history records 5.57% exact same-month growth over one year, 4.92% over three years, and 5.55% over five years. The 2.36% annualized monthly-return variability, 1.30% maximum drawdown, and 98.6% coverage support a stable-growth reading of the observed index. This is historical measurement only, not a view on future rent changes.","title":"Historical rent movement is steady rather than sharply reversing"},{"body":"At the arithmetic 30% income screen, the current index maps to $46,040 annual income versus a $40,231 ZCTA household-income median. Separately, 49.6% of estimated renter households report paying 30% or more of income toward rent. These figures show an aggregate affordability tension, but neither decides an applicant's qualification nor establishes a specific household or unit's burden.","title":"The income screen is above the ZCTA median"},{"body":"The bedroom figures are modelled estimates rather than measured rents. They begin with ZIP ZORI and apply the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder, which is a standard used for administrative purposes. The result offers a consistent studio-to-four-bedroom scaling device, but cannot substitute for bedroom-specific advertised listings or completed leases.","title":"Bedroom values normalize the index rather than measure rents"},{"body":"Redfin's ZIP-level rolling-three-month resale record pairs a 20.6% median-sale-price increase with 6.2 months of supply, 64 median marketing days, a 91.9% average sale-to-list ratio, and only 5.0% of sales above list. That is a resale-market reading, not a rental transaction sample. Its contrast with the ZORI history is the report's key cross-universe tension.","title":"Resale price growth sits beside measured sale-to-list restraint"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS, and HUD answer different questions: blending their values can misstate current market asking rent because ACS includes selected utilities and HUD is an administrative standard.","The ACS renter count and burden estimate are five-year survey aggregates with disclosed margins of error; they cannot identify affordability, utility costs, or vacancy at a specific address.","Redfin is a rolling-three-month resale view with a limited completed-sale count. It cannot supply rental comps, tenant demand, property condition, or a transaction-level operating result.","The bedroom series is modelled from a HUD ladder, while the index blends rental types. Unit bedroom count, lease terms, concessions, utility responsibility, and listing freshness may materially differ."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,151 figure is Zillow ZORI for the ZIP market in June 2026: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for a ZIP-level asking-rent snapshot, but it is not a lease signed by a particular household, a utility-inclusive survey median, or a bedroom-specific observation.","q":"What does the Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"ACS reports a $965 median gross rent in matched ZCTA five-year occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI tracks asking rents, not the same homes or utility treatment. The $186 difference is therefore a source-universe difference as well as a numerical difference; neither source converts directly into unit-level rent.","q":"Why does ACS median gross rent differ from ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates formed by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent. The model helps normalize bedroom size, but it does not measure rents for available, leased, or sold units.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured market rents?"},{"a":"The 10.6% value divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the Redfin median sold price. It is a cross-source screening ratio only. Because it does not pair a specific rental with a specific sale or include property-level terms, it cannot be treated as a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"What does the rent-to-sale-price screen show?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":830.803884},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":839.148228},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":835.963387},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":842.062149},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":854.329588},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":861.07156},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":860.407583},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":866.482002},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":872.59001},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":875.714587},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":866.446497},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":866.795095},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":878.754926},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":891.198652},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":894.463382},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":890.105108},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":892.798468},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":902.976463},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":918.448878},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":927.707043},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":933.34156},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":937.98156},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":945.444167},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":944.568275},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":933.198245},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":946.23771},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":954.963605},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":968.697441},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":961.875305},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":963.491615},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":959.994445},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":968.29102},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":968.384749},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":970.845939},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":972.564124},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":983.398593},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":996.509742},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1001.167267},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1006.29376},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1014.044827},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1023.093566},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1026.548635},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1035.17075},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1023.254623},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1035.086337},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1040.877366},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1063.580075},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1063.580582},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1075.354179},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1073.449051},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1074.688649},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1068.855414},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1074.996427},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1082.290572},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1078.375746},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1075.003559},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1082.214711},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1091.398807},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1093.129592},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1092.874834},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1090.335009},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1097.046426},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1102.374458},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1110.96928},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1113.821065},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1116.455377},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1125.899708},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1142.884287},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1141.355988},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1140.967876},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1138.000663},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1146.517278},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1151.056818}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":73,"firstPeriod":"2020-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":74,"coverageRatio":0.9864864864864865,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1090.335009,"endRent":1151.056818,"change":0.05569096516096561,"cagr":0.05569096516096561},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":996.509742,"endRent":1151.056818,"change":0.15508837443959478,"cagr":0.0492325077557052},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":878.754926,"endRent":1151.056818,"change":0.30987239325017457,"cagr":0.055469766945275056}},"maxDrawdown":-0.012952559682987586,"annualizedVolatility":0.023607694359848292,"consecutiveReturnCount":71}}