At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 72704 was $1,832 per month, up 0.57% from a year earlier. This is a typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, rather than a lease transaction series or a rent quoted for one home. It gives a current market-level benchmark, but it does not identify utility inclusions, lease terms, unit size, or availability. The label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA label: a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That distinction matters before comparing this index with survey, HUD, or resale evidence.
The history says the current increase comes after marked deceleration, not a clean reversal. Exact same-month annualized change was 0.57% over 1 year, 2.43% over 3 years, and 5.17% over 5 years. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.93%, the maximum drawdown was -3.28%, and coverage was 99.04%. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,787 for momentum, 1,484 for stability, and 1,861 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher. Positive recent direction confirms the longer path’s direction, but its much slower pace breaks from that longer path’s growth rate. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; variability and the drawdown mean one current snapshot warrants tempered confidence.
ACS has a different universe and timing. In the ACS 2024 5-year survey of occupied renter homes, ZCTA median gross rent was $1,206 and includes selected utilities; the current asking index is 51.9% higher, so neither is a substitute for the other. The ACS ZCTA median household income was $96,014. Annualizing ZORI and applying the arithmetic 30% screen produces required income of $73,280; that is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 1,844 of 4,761 surveyed renter households, or 38.7%, reported gross-rent burden at or above that threshold. These survey estimates describe households, not the terms of a currently advertised home.
HUD FMR/SAFMR creates a third, non-comparable universe. The FY2026 local HUD ladder, supplied as ZIP SAFMR or county-derived, sets a two-bedroom administrative standard of $1,347, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI using that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,370 for a studio, $1,516 for one bedroom, $1,832 for two bedrooms, $2,547 for three bedrooms, and $3,010 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: they translate a blended ZIP index through an administrative size ladder rather than observing separate bedroom markets. The ladder preserves relative size scaling only; it cannot reveal concessions, quality, or individual asking levels.
The matched ZCTA’s ACS housing stock contained 14,912 units and a 7.5% vacancy rate. It was predominantly single-family, with a smaller large-multifamily component, so aggregate vacancy should be read as an area stock condition rather than proof that a particular unit is available, competitively priced, or suitable. The Fayetteville city context rent of $1,720, the Washington County context rent of $1,648, and the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR metro context rent of $1,599 all sit below the ZIP asking index; these are wider-scope benchmarks, not ZIP observations. Their different boundaries and source universes prevent treating them as interchangeable rental comps.
Redfin’s direct rolling three-month ZIP resale observation is a for-sale-market record, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $377,190, down 0.73% year over year; 195 homes sold with a median 18 days on market. Inventory was 239 homes, up 38.77%, and months of supply were 3.7. Average sale-to-list was 98.72%, while 15.28% of sales closed above list. These describe ZIP resale pricing, turnover, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals only; they do not serve as rent comparables or identify the economics of any rental property.
The strongest tension is between modestly positive current asking-rent direction and softer for-sale price direction alongside higher resale inventory. That resale pattern challenges any simple extension of the longer rent-growth record, although the volume sold and short marketing time still show observed resale activity. It does not contradict ACS burden data, because each statistic covers a different population, period, and market universe. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 5.83%, a cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a measure of property-level operating results, a forecast, or a basis for converting resale conditions into rental transactions.
Several limits should govern use of this packet. ZORI blends rental types and tracks asking rents; ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty, and its gross-rent and burden measures apply to occupied renter homes. HUD is administrative, while Redfin is a rolling ZIP resale observation. Area vacancy and burden cannot prove availability, condition, utilities, or payment pressure for a particular unit. Before relying on an advertised rent, verify the actual bedroom count, floor area, lease length, concessions, included utilities, availability date, and comparable active asks. For a sale comparison, verify property condition, list and closing records, and whether the transaction matches the relevant structure and timing. What do those property-level checks show that the area aggregates cannot?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June reading is a ZIP-level typical asking-rent index rather than a signed-lease average. The latest annual increase is positive, yet the history’s longer annualized comparisons are faster. The available history has high coverage but measurable variability and drawdown, so the current reading is useful as a recent signal, not a stable prediction of the next movement.","title":"Rent direction slowed despite a positive current reading"},{"body":"The ZORI-derived income screen is an arithmetic benchmark built from the current asking index, whereas ACS gross rent and renter burden are survey measures of occupied homes with selected utilities. The ZIP’s reported median household income sits above the screen, but a substantial surveyed renter share reports burden at or above that screen. Neither aggregate resolves the price, utility package, or income profile of a specific applicant or unit.","title":"Affordability evidence is internally mixed across sources"},{"body":"Redfin reports a direct ZIP resale market with observed sales and short marketing time, but with a slight price decline and more inventory. That combination challenges a simple extrapolation from the rent history. Resale median prices, sale-to-list results, and supply describe for-sale transactions only. They cannot be used as rental comparables, nor can the rent-to-price screen establish property-level economics.","title":"Resale evidence challenges a simple rent-growth narrative"},{"body":"Bedroom figures are modelled by scaling the ZIP index with HUD’s local administrative ladder. They organize size-level screening but are not measured asking rents. Confirm bedroom count, area, availability, utilities, concessions, lease length, condition, and directly competing listings before treating the model as relevant. For resale context, confirm transaction dates, lists, closes, and structure match rather than applying area medians to a property.","title":"Property-level verification remains essential"}],"risks":["The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS estimates describe surveyed occupied households over a multiyear period with sampling uncertainty.","ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, so changes may not match a unit’s lease renewal, concession package, utility treatment, bedroom mix, condition, or availability.","The HUD-scaled bedroom outputs inherit the ZIP-level index and administrative ladder, so they can organize relative screening but cannot validate a measured asking rent for a particular size or condition.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation provides a direct for-sale ZIP signal, yet its median price and inventory measures cannot determine rental demand, unit-level vacancy, operating costs, or future movements."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI, described here as a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It summarizes an index for the ZIP market identifier, not a signed lease, an advertised rent for one exact home, or a measured rent for a particular bedroom count.","q":"What does the current rent figure actually measure?"},{"a":"ZORI is a current ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. HUD uses an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Different timing, populations, utility treatment, and purposes make differing values expected rather than directly interchangeable.","q":"Why can the current asking index differ from ACS gross rent and HUD?"},{"a":"Redfin’s rolling ZIP resale observation records for-sale outcomes, including price, marketing, inventory, supply, and list-to-sale relationships. It does not report rental transactions. Its annualized-rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screen; it cannot establish property economics, an investment outcome, or a rental value for an individual listing.","q":"How should the resale section be read alongside rental data?"},{"a":"Confirm actual bedroom count, size, condition, current advertised rent, concessions, utilities, lease duration, and availability. For a sale reference, verify the listing and closing records, marketing period, structure type, and transaction timing. Area indexes, survey medians, HUD standards, and resale aggregates cannot establish those attributes for a particular property.","q":"What property-level checks remain necessary?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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