The useful decision question in Springdale is whether a current advertised benchmark should be read as a market ask, an occupied-renter cost, or a bedroom-specific standard. For this market, the five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,400 per month, up 2.53% year over year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a promised price for a particular home. The strongest signal is a split between a higher current asking benchmark and lower occupied-renter survey rent, with the HUD comparison much closer to the asking figure.
ACS 2024 5-year data for the matched ZCTA report a $1,050 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, with a $42 ACS margin of error. This is a five-year survey universe, not a live listing series: median gross rent includes selected utilities and reflects occupied renter homes. Compared with ZORI, the asking measure is 1.33x the ACS median, a $350 difference; neither measure should be substituted for the other. HUD FY2026 is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Its two-bedroom standard is $1,347, about 3.9% below the ZIP ZORI, so it is a reference point for a defined bedroom standard, not validation of what a specific landlord will charge.
The bedroom view is modelled, not measured. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces monthly estimates of $1,047 for a studio, $1,159 for a one-bedroom, $1,400 for a two-bedroom, $1,947 for a three-bedroom, and $2,300 for a four-bedroom. The corresponding HUD FY2026 standards are $1,007, $1,115, $1,347, $1,873, and $2,213. This ladder preserves a relationship between the ZIP-wide asking index and bedroom standards; it does not observe rents by bedroom, establish a distribution of actual listings, or account for a specific unit’s utilities, fees, condition, or concessions.
Income and burden point to different lenses. The $56,000 required-income figure is arithmetic from the $1,400 asking rent under a 30% screen, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ZIP median household income is $65,898, with a $3,837 ACS margin of error, while the asking-rent-to-income ratio is 25.5%. Renters occupy 51.5% of occupied housing, giving the asking series a substantial renter-market audience. ACS records 35.7% of renter households at or above the 30% burden threshold. That observed aggregate burden cannot prove affordability, eligibility, or payment behavior for any particular household or unit.
Supply composition adds useful caution. The ZCTA contains 21,032 housing units, including 1,244 vacant units, for a 5.9% vacancy rate. Among the listed vacancy categories, 572 units are vacant for rent, compared with 39 vacant for sale and 99 seasonal units. The structure counts include 13,995 single-family units and 463 large-multifamily units. These are area-level stock and status measures: vacant-for-rent does not establish that a unit is currently listed, suitable, available on a preferred date, or priced at the ZIP ZORI. The counts also do not reveal the unit mix behind the asking index.
Broader context puts the ZIP below several surrounding rent measures, but the scopes must stay separate. Springdale city’s context rent is $1,513.20; Washington County’s context rent is $1,648; and the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR metro’s context rent is $1,599, with a 23.5% rent-to-income ratio. These city, county, and metro figures are wider context only, not replacements for the ZIP ZORI, ZCTA ACS, or HUD ladder. The comparison indicates the ZIP asking benchmark is lower than each named context rent measure, while context definitions remain noninterchangeable.
These figures support a disciplined property-level check, not a conclusion about any individual home. Confirm the actual asking rent, bedroom count and layout; identify which utilities are included; itemize recurring fees, deposits, and concessions; verify availability and lease term; and determine whether the address belongs in the relevant ZIP market and matched ZCTA. Treat ACS medians, HUD standards, modelled bedroom estimates, renter burden, and vacancy as different evidence universes. ACS margins of error also describe survey uncertainty, while Zillow and HUD use different definitions and are not interchangeable precision signals. A landlord’s price may include or exclude items that move a tenant’s effective cost without changing the area-level benchmark. The most important unresolved facts are unit-specific: what is offered now, what the household must pay in total, and what conditions attach to the lease.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,400 and is up 2.53% year over year, while the ACS 2024 5-year matched ZCTA median gross rent is $1,050. The $350 separation reflects different universes: observed asking rents blended across rental types versus occupied renter homes with selected utilities. The ACS measure should not be read as a live listing quote, and ZORI should not be treated as a particular unit’s guaranteed price.","title":"Current asking rent versus occupied-renter rent"},{"body":"The studio through four-bedroom ZIP figures are modelled estimates produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FY2026 figures are administrative bedroom-specific standards, not asking rents. Neither series measures the rent of a particular home or captures its exact utilities, fees, condition, or concessions.","title":"Bedroom comparisons are modelled"},{"body":"The $56,000 required-income figure is the arithmetic annual income corresponding to the $1,400 asking rent under a 30% screen; it is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ZIP median household income is $65,898, and 35.7% of renter households are observed at or above the 30% burden threshold. Those aggregate measures describe different questions and cannot determine a particular household’s payment capacity or a particular property’s affordability.","title":"Affordability is mixed by measure"},{"body":"The ZCTA has a 5.9% vacancy rate, with 572 units classified vacant for rent, while 13,995 units are single-family and 463 are large multifamily. Springdale city, Washington County, and the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR metro each provide wider context rather than a substitute ZIP benchmark; their context rents are $1,513.20, $1,648, and $1,599 respectively. Vacancy labels do not prove availability of any specific home.","title":"Area stock and broader context"}],"risks":["Comparing ZORI with ACS median gross rent can mislead because they cover different time horizons, rental populations, utility treatment, and asking-versus-occupied concepts; the gap is not evidence of a market error.","The bedroom figures carry model risk: they are scaled estimates from a ZIP-wide index and HUD ladder, not measured rents for actual studio, one-bedroom, or larger properties.","Observed burden and required-income arithmetic can be overread as applicant decisions, yet neither establishes a household’s eligibility, payment behavior, or a particular unit’s total monthly cost.","Vacant-for-rent counts and area vacancy rates may not reflect current listing status, lease timing, condition, fees, concessions, utility responsibility, or actual availability at the property level."],"qa":[{"a":"For this ZIP market, Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,400 per month and increased 2.53% year over year. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market signal rather than a guaranteed quote for a particular unit.","q":"What is the current ZIP rent and what does it measure?"},{"a":"The ACS 2024 5-year matched Census ZCTA median gross rent is $1,050 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It is a survey measure covering a different universe and period from Zillow’s current asking index, so the two figures should be compared, not merged.","q":"Why does the ACS median differ from Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"The studio through four-bedroom ZIP figures are modelled estimates produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FY2026 figures are administrative bedroom-specific standards, not asking rents. Neither series measures the rent of a particular home or captures its exact utilities, fees, condition, or concessions.","q":"How should the bedroom figures be used?"},{"a":"No. The $56,000 annual requirement is arithmetic from the asking rent and a 30% screen, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Median income and aggregate renter burden provide context, but property-level affordability still depends on the household, total charges, lease terms, and actual unit.","q":"Does the income screen determine eligibility?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1240.806126},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1257.561267},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1255.199089},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1264.485811},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1257.189995},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1257.43548},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1269.956159},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1283.58449},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1300.687304},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1285.846775},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1265.83643},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1264.193738},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1282.978796},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1289.864442},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1297.273398},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1301.627486},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1310.774527},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1311.406897},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1315.008783},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1324.096861},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1330.014772},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1330.82972},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1345.404644},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1352.016665},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1356.053725},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1357.755621},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1356.598181},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1365.634721},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1365.755678},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1378.696529},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1384.111482},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1381.841014},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1384.169119},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1398.874437},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1407.098982},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1403.166168},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1397.430882},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1398.619645},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1403.661514},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1400.25}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":40,"firstPeriod":"2023-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":40,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1365.634721,"endRent":1400.25,"change":0.02534739229144134,"cagr":0.02534739229144134},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1264.485811,"endRent":1400.25,"change":0.10736711145270417,"cagr":0.0345795117835328}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02805714016564287,"annualizedVolatility":0.022338270355632656,"consecutiveReturnCount":39}}