The central tension in 74008 is a sizable gap between the current asking-rent indicator and the occupied-home rent record, while a separate resale market supplies no direct rental confirmation. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is $1,847 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-specific quote, a utility-inclusive household payment, or proof of the rent for a particular available home. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Those geography and measurement distinctions frame every comparison that follows.
Matched ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year data report median gross rent of $1,365, placing the current Zillow index 35.3% higher. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities; it therefore represents a different stock, time window and payment construct than Zillow’s asking-rent index. The FY2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR is $1,460. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so it is neither a competing advertised-rent reading nor evidence that any unit will rent at that level. The separation identifies distinct evidence universes, not a contradiction or a rent forecast.
Bedroom-oriented figures should be read even more narrowly. The studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom and four-bedroom modelled estimates are $1,417, $1,493, $1,847, $2,429 and $2,821 per month, respectively. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: they scale the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. That ladder supplies relative bedroom steps, while the underlying HUD standard remains administrative and does not verify actual contemporary asking rents by unit type. The two-bedroom estimate matching the index is a result of this scaling method, not an observed two-bedroom median. Actual bedroom count, included utilities and lease terms remain property-level checks.
The income screen and the burden data produce another important contrast. Applying a 30% required-income screen to the current index produces $73,880 annually; against the matched ZCTA median household income of $104,000, the index equals 21.3% of that annual median when annualized. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS nevertheless counts 2,941 renter-occupied homes, including 1,144 renter households paying 30% or more of income toward rent, a 38.9% burden share. Because that ACS result describes occupied households over a survey period and ZORI describes current asking rents, it does not establish the burden or affordability of a particular home or applicant.
Direct Zillow ZIP history through the stated June endpoint contains 79 monthly observations with full coverage. Its exact same-month annualized change is 0.58% over one year, compared with 2.04% over three years and 3.67% over five years. The recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the stronger longer growth path. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.97% and a maximum decline of 3.11% show that a single current snapshot is a point in a moving series, limiting the confidence warranted for treating it as a durable level. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,874 for momentum, 1,579 for stability and 2,001 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher, and no denominator is supplied. All are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Within wider-context asking-rent comparisons only, Bixby city’s figure is $1,782 per month, Tulsa County’s is $1,352, and the Tulsa, OK metro’s is $1,361; each named city, county and metro value is context rather than a substitute for the ZIP observation. The matched ZCTA’s ACS housing stock has 13,042 units and a 5.4% vacancy rate. It is weighted toward 11,140 single-family units, alongside 478 units in large multifamily structures. These are five-year survey stock measures, not a live count of listings. In particular, reported vacancy does not prove that a specific unit is marketed for rent, available on a desired date, or comparable with the Zillow index.
Redfin supplies a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Median sold price is $394,911, up 1.26% year over year, with 305 homes sold and a median 51 days on market. Inventory is 285 homes, down 13.93% year over year, while months of supply is 2.8. The average sale-to-list ratio is 99.05%, and 22.24% of sales closed above list. These price, volume, marketing, inventory, supply and sale-to-list signals belong only to the for-sale market. They create a measured tension with the rent record: price growth and reduced inventory coexist with below-list average execution and slower ZORI growth, so resale evidence does not unambiguously corroborate current rent momentum.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price produces a 5.61% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return or property yield, because it combines an asking-rent index with resale data and excludes property-specific expenses, financing, vacancies and realized leases. Concrete checks should verify the exact address’s ZIP-market assignment, current advertised rent, bedroom configuration, utilities, lease terms and availability; where resale is relevant, confirm the property’s own transaction and list history rather than substitute ZIP medians. Neither survey burden nor survey vacancy proves the economics, availability or condition of a particular unit. The closing question is whether the specific property terms—not these aggregate screens—match the decision being evaluated.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is an observed blended asking-rent index, whereas ACS reports a five-year median gross rent for occupied renter homes with selected utilities. The current index exceeds the matched ZCTA ACS median by 35.3%. This gap is decision-critical because it prevents a direct reading of either figure as the other. It does not prove a current rent change for any one available home.","title":"Asking-versus-occupied-rent gap"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are generated by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP ZORI. They are useful for proportional planning across bedroom categories, but they are modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative standard, not an asking-rent series. A listing’s actual layout, utilities and term can depart from the ladder.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a model, not a comp set"},{"body":"The one-year same-month ZORI change of 0.58% is lower than the three-year and five-year annualized rates of 2.04% and 3.67%. The 79-observation history has full coverage, but its 2.97% annualized variability and 3.11% maximum decline mean a current reading should not be assumed durable. These are backward-looking measurements, not a forecast.","title":"Recent history weakened relative to the longer path"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP series recorded 305 homes sold, a 51-day median marketing time and 2.8 months of supply. Median price rose 1.26%, while the average sale-to-list ratio was 99.05%. This is for-sale liquidity context, not rental transaction evidence or property economics. The annualized ZORI-to-price calculation remains a cross-source screen rather than a cap rate or yield.","title":"Resale data do not substitute for rental evidence"}],"risks":["The $1,847 Zillow index, $1,365 ACS median gross rent, and $1,460 HUD standard observe different populations, periods and payment constructs; treating them as interchangeable can misstate a property’s relevant rent.","Recent ZORI growth is materially slower than the longer same-month history, and historical variability plus drawdown demonstrate movement; extrapolating either the latest value or past multi-year rate would exceed the evidence.","Redfin records ZIP for-sale activity rather than rental transactions. A sold-price denominator lacks property-specific expenses, financing, actual leases and vacancies, so the screening ratio cannot establish economics for an owned or rented unit.","ACS stock, vacancy and burden indicators are survey aggregates for the matched ZCTA. They cannot demonstrate a particular home’s availability, physical condition, utility treatment, tenant burden or lease affordability."],"qa":[{"a":"The ACS figure is from the 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while Zillow ZORI is a June 2026 typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Their different time windows, populations, utility treatment and measurement purposes explain why they should be compared as context, not substituted for one another.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent below the Zillow index?"},{"a":"They scale the ZIP-level ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder, which produces modelled studio through four-bedroom estimates. The method establishes relative category estimates tied to the blended index. It does not observe unit-specific asking rents, prove a typical bedroom rent, or replace verification of a listing’s bedroom count, utilities, availability and lease terms.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates created, and what can they establish?"},{"a":"The latest one-year same-month annualized change is 0.58%, below both the three-year 2.04% and five-year 3.67% changes, so the reported recent direction is a break from the earlier stronger growth path. Full history coverage strengthens record completeness, but the variability and maximum decline make the series descriptive and backward-looking rather than predictive.","q":"Does the rent history show acceleration or a break from its longer path?"},{"a":"No. It divides annualized ZIP ZORI, an asking-rent index, by a direct ZIP resale median sold price, producing only a cross-source screening ratio. It does not include a property’s realized rent, operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, repair requirements, vacancy, purchase terms or sale proceeds. It is therefore neither a cap rate nor any measure of net, expected or property yield.","q":"Can the ZORI-to-sold-price ratio be used to estimate investment return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1389.665733},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1401.456991},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1419.22303},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1402.981856},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1385.565939},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1375.080634},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1385.111209},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1396.23951},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1409.526126},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1414.809953},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1408.60155},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1417.259758},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1439.08276},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1450.207395},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1476.432844},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1496.1105},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1538.017641},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1538.460972},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1542.806607},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1564.455279},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1600.984378},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1631.076046},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1653.302416},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1662.04962},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1659.005425},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1663.020133},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1660.227124},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1682.322892},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1687.14127},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1710.833549},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1722.769358},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1725.842927},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1715.183822},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1703.118497},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1716.325642},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1708.69716},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1734.464271},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1712.170018},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1729.883203},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1713.264804},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1728.422463},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1730.988329},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1738.571069},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1743.569202},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1754.087018},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1772.475995},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1775.85757},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1789.145687},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1771.838748},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1804.015103},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1796.935588},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1803.868541},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1780.909698},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1792.721488},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1804.073072},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1806.362409},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1806.181851},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1799.264146},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1809.205068},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1798.71479},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1805.328683},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1795.434421},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1795.467168},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1816.390079},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1838.988942},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1852.545131},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1836.798755},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1841.873015},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1847.729782},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1854.678531},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1850.426655},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1861.088998},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1866.295366},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1868.856108},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1874.104923},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1861.651562},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1855.767856},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1841.270776},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1847.40812}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":79,"firstPeriod":"2019-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":79,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1836.798755,"endRent":1847.40812,"change":0.0057760083793174655,"cagr":0.0057760083793174655},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1738.571069,"endRent":1847.40812,"change":0.06260143915922933,"cagr":0.020446248144912138},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1542.806607,"endRent":1847.40812,"change":0.19743337344937895,"cagr":0.036693251930659976}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03110321286147688,"annualizedVolatility":0.029722478798807715,"consecutiveReturnCount":78}}